Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million

Moderators: bwgood77, Domejandro

RealGM Wiretap
RealGM
Posts: 114,591
And1: 313
Joined: Mar 19, 2013

Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#1 » by RealGM Wiretap » Fri Mar 21, 2025 1:43 pm

Cooper Flagg made some waves when he said he wants "go come back next year" to Duke. Flagg had previously said that he's "living in the present right now", making it little surprise he's enjoying his time at Duke.


However, returning to Duke would come at a significant loss in potential NBA salary. Flagg could stand to lose up to $75 million by delaying his entry to the NBA. This is because he'd then enter the NBA at a more typical age for a first-year player, while delaying starting his NBA years-of-service clock. As it stands, due to reclassifying and graduating high school a year early, Flagg is set to enter the NBA as one of the youngest players.


Despite making millions in NIL deals at Duke, it's unlikely the talented freshman is touching anything near $75 million. That's why most expect Flagg to enter the 2025 NBA Draft. And one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Via Jonathan Givony and Jeremy Woo/ESPN

dubbmotta
Senior
Posts: 745
And1: 129
Joined: Oct 19, 2017

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#2 » by dubbmotta » Fri Mar 21, 2025 2:17 pm

one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Tim Duncan could of potentially been number 1 in the 1996 draft
User avatar
Barcs
Analyst
Posts: 3,180
And1: 861
Joined: Jan 27, 2013
Location: NJ
       

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#3 » by Barcs » Fri Mar 21, 2025 2:54 pm

I know this is football and not basketball, but it does happen. Peyton Manning did it.
SELL THE TEAM, JIM!!! :curse:
KembaWalker
RealGM
Posts: 11,955
And1: 13,582
Joined: Dec 22, 2011

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#4 » by KembaWalker » Fri Mar 21, 2025 4:17 pm

the difference between spending a decade in Charlotte or New Orleans compared to just about any other market is probably considerably more than $75 mil (or rather the difference between $75 mil and whatever he makes in NIL) in endorsements and career success potential. luckily for him the withdrawal date is after the lottery
Revived
RealGM
Posts: 37,369
And1: 22,185
Joined: Feb 17, 2011

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#5 » by Revived » Fri Mar 21, 2025 4:18 pm

dubbmotta wrote:one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Tim Duncan could of potentially been number 1 in the 1996 draft

It’s a scout who said, might be some 20 something yr old that was born way after 1996 so his statement makes sense that he wouldn’t remember that.
Scoonie
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,510
And1: 1,801
Joined: Aug 28, 2004
Location: New Hampshire
   

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#6 » by Scoonie » Fri Mar 21, 2025 4:30 pm

He’s not coming back, don’t kid yourself.
Dogen wrote:Celtics win despite Smart having -1 points for the game.
Bk68
Sophomore
Posts: 159
And1: 16
Joined: Jan 29, 2019
 

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#7 » by Bk68 » Fri Mar 21, 2025 4:31 pm

KembaWalker wrote:the difference between spending a decade in Charlotte or New Orleans compared to just about any other market is probably considerably more than $75 mil (or rather the difference between $75 mil and whatever he makes in NIL) in endorsements and career success potential. luckily for him the withdrawal date is after the lottery

That's a good point
foreigngrammar
Pro Prospect
Posts: 867
And1: 537
Joined: Jun 28, 2014

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#8 » by foreigngrammar » Fri Mar 21, 2025 4:40 pm

It‘s all about the benjamins
User avatar
jigga_man
Assistant Coach
Posts: 4,147
And1: 2,380
Joined: Jul 02, 2004
Location: ...breakfast table in an otherwise empty room
 

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#9 » by jigga_man » Fri Mar 21, 2025 5:12 pm

dubbmotta wrote:one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Tim Duncan could of potentially been number 1 in the 1996 draft


Same with Joakim Noah. Had the potential to be #1 in 2006 but decided to go back to school
the_process
RealGM
Posts: 29,104
And1: 10,313
Joined: May 01, 2010

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#10 » by the_process » Fri Mar 21, 2025 5:19 pm

dubbmotta wrote:one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Tim Duncan could of potentially been number 1 in the 1996 draft


Duncan absolutely would have been number one way over Iverson in '96.

Still pissed the Sixers got hosed there. No good reason Duncan returned to Wake.
Oldham
Ballboy
Posts: 7
And1: 3
Joined: Jan 13, 2025
         

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#11 » by Oldham » Fri Mar 21, 2025 5:47 pm

It's not been done in the one and done era, but, between 1975 and late 1990's, it wasn't unusual. Sampson did it 3 times, after his FR, SO and JR years. Oden said through his recruitment and until after his only season that he came to OSU for 4 years, only to reconsider. I imagine the Flagg stuff is just talk to build his brand. Many fans still believe there is some virtue to staying in school. 75 mm is based on assumptions which may or may come to pass. The best reason to go now is not career earnings if all goes well (and he's continually maxed), it's career earnings if things don't go well (injury or underperformance).
Twinkie defense
RealGM
Posts: 20,329
And1: 1,631
Joined: Jul 15, 2005

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#12 » by Twinkie defense » Fri Mar 21, 2025 7:13 pm

I hope he returns to Duke, that would be so funny for the teams trying to tank for him like Utah.
Twinkie defense
RealGM
Posts: 20,329
And1: 1,631
Joined: Jul 15, 2005

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#13 » by Twinkie defense » Fri Mar 21, 2025 7:16 pm

He's already very rich, and college years are fleeting and priceless - you can't just go back later, it's not the same.

Hopefully the new rules about paying college players will lead to the best players staying in school longer and gaining better fundamentals, instead of trying to learn on the job as a pro.
slicedbread2
Analyst
Posts: 3,647
And1: 3,011
Joined: Jan 23, 2014

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#14 » by slicedbread2 » Fri Mar 21, 2025 9:02 pm

the_process wrote:
dubbmotta wrote:one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Tim Duncan could of potentially been number 1 in the 1996 draft


Duncan absolutely would have been number one way over Iverson in '96.

Still pissed the Sixers got hosed there. No good reason Duncan returned to Wake.


If I had to guess, the reason for that was because Duncan's Mom made him promise her that he'd graduate from college before she died right before Duncan's 14th birthday. For Tim, he didn't want to break that promise and leaving early would've made it difficult.
HotelVitale
RealGM
Posts: 16,760
And1: 11,857
Joined: Sep 14, 2007
Location: West Philly, PA

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#15 » by HotelVitale » Fri Mar 21, 2025 9:08 pm

Bk68 wrote:
KembaWalker wrote:the difference between spending a decade in Charlotte or New Orleans compared to just about any other market is probably considerably more than $75 mil (or rather the difference between $75 mil and whatever he makes in NIL) in endorsements and career success potential. luckily for him the withdrawal date is after the lottery

That's a good point


Interesting thing to think about but a) those teams have a very small chance of landing the #1 pick (14%) with new lotto odds and b) I'd guess that it's not actually $75m he'd be losing in marketing etc, nor is there a way to make that a whole lot better.

For one Charlotte is a moderate sized and not small market, and when you consider it's the team for all of central NC it's a pretty good-sized one. It's quite a bit bigger than Cleveland, for example, and we saw how Lebron was able to be a global icon while playing on the Cavs as a younger player. If you don't think Flagg's going to be at that level--or even a step or two below--then the amount of $ he's picking up from endorsements etc doesn't seem like it'll matter that much. Don't think being a pretty good player in Charlotte vs being a pretty good player in say Dallas (a top-5 market) is going to make a gigantic difference in $.

If you're saying that he'd lost a lot of $ and prestige because teams like CHA are pretty incompetently run and unlikely to build big time winning teams (or at least relevant ones) around him, that's a decent point. But we've also seen lots of team's FO gets switched up and the team getting better or worse, especially when they have some talent and need to get competent. Don't want to trap them into sucking because they have in the past.

Also if he stays in another year he's still looking at kinda blah teams+markets like NOLA, Charlotte, Portland, etc having the best chances of landing him again. No way for him to get himself to a NY or LA.
HotelVitale
RealGM
Posts: 16,760
And1: 11,857
Joined: Sep 14, 2007
Location: West Philly, PA

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#16 » by HotelVitale » Fri Mar 21, 2025 9:20 pm

Twinkie defense wrote:He's already very rich, and college years are fleeting and priceless - you can't just go back later, it's not the same.

Hopefully the new rules about paying college players will lead to the best players staying in school longer and gaining better fundamentals, instead of trying to learn on the job as a pro.


Strikes me as kind of sentimental. It's probably fun to play for a good college team and have the excitement of the tournament and the adoration of a bunch of young well-off kids on campus, but it's also pretty damn cool to be a young millionaire traveling around and competing against your heroes every night in front of thousands in the best facilities in the world. Especially for a guy like Flagg who knows he's already better than his peers and would be playing beneath his level if he came back.

Also think the idea that college coaches teach you better 'fundamentals' than pro staffs can do feels like hopeless old-school uncle talk. Maybe a little insulting to Flagg too, who's been a serious prospect for a long time and working to prep himself for many years.
User avatar
artsncrafts
RealGM
Posts: 22,355
And1: 26,034
Joined: Feb 04, 2013
Location: Shambleland, Ont.
 

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#17 » by artsncrafts » Sat Mar 22, 2025 3:26 pm

the_process wrote:
dubbmotta wrote:one Eastern Conference scout put it best: "I can't remember a No. 1 pick deciding to go back to school."

Tim Duncan could of potentially been number 1 in the 1996 draft


Duncan absolutely would have been number one way over Iverson in '96.

Still pissed the Sixers got hosed there. No good reason Duncan returned to Wake.


uhh Raptors got hosed. They werent allowed to draft 1st so Philly got Iverson.
Harold_and_Kumar wrote:What if the 10 incher was overrated and the 4 incher was too small for any playing time, but the 7 incher was a perfect fit for our roster and the 5 incher was good for specific situations, like backdoor cuts?
AWIZZINGBULLET
Bench Warmer
Posts: 1,435
And1: 222
Joined: Apr 08, 2012
       

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#18 » by AWIZZINGBULLET » Sat Mar 22, 2025 5:45 pm

Barcs wrote:I know this is football and not basketball, but it does happen. Peyton Manning did it.


But this isn't football.
.
asdlkm
Ballboy
Posts: 37
And1: 31
Joined: Jun 30, 2019

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#19 » by asdlkm » Sat Mar 22, 2025 9:34 pm

HotelVitale wrote:
Bk68 wrote:
KembaWalker wrote:the difference between spending a decade in Charlotte or New Orleans compared to just about any other market is probably considerably more than $75 mil (or rather the difference between $75 mil and whatever he makes in NIL) in endorsements and career success potential. luckily for him the withdrawal date is after the lottery

That's a good point


Interesting thing to think about but a) those teams have a very small chance of landing the #1 pick (14%) with new lotto odds and b) I'd guess that it's not actually $75m he'd be losing in marketing etc, nor is there a way to make that a whole lot better.

For one Charlotte is a moderate sized and not small market, and when you consider it's the team for all of central NC it's a pretty good-sized one. It's quite a bit bigger than Cleveland, for example, and we saw how Lebron was able to be a global icon while playing on the Cavs as a younger player. If you don't think Flagg's going to be at that level--or even a step or two below--then the amount of $ he's picking up from endorsements etc doesn't seem like it'll matter that much. Don't think being a pretty good player in Charlotte vs being a pretty good player in say Dallas (a top-5 market) is going to make a gigantic difference in $.

If you're saying that he'd lost a lot of $ and prestige because teams like CHA are pretty incompetently run and unlikely to build big time winning teams (or at least relevant ones) around him, that's a decent point. But we've also seen lots of team's FO gets switched up and the team getting better or worse, especially when they have some talent and need to get competent. Don't want to trap them into sucking because they have in the past.

Also if he stays in another year he's still looking at kinda blah teams+markets like NOLA, Charlotte, Portland, etc having the best chances of landing him again. No way for him to get himself to a NY or LA.


He's not LeBron. The comparison would be someone like Tatum. How much more money has Tatum made in endorsements by being on a perennial contender vs if he was in Charlotte surrounded by junk? Obviously being in a premier market helps, which isn't likely for Flagg regardless of when he comes out, but there is real value in being on competitive teams in playoff spotlight. With that said, who knows if the options will be any better next year. So likely he'll still come out.
cheese318
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,613
And1: 239
Joined: Nov 13, 2013
       

Re: Returning To Duke Could Cost Cooper Flagg $75 Million 

Post#20 » by cheese318 » Sat Mar 22, 2025 9:48 pm

Barcs wrote:I know this is football and not basketball, but it does happen. Peyton Manning did it.


To avoid playing with the NYJ right after Parcells signed with the team in February of 1998. Would have been interesting seeing those two paired together. Doubt he ever leaves for DAL
Hoopzilla wrote:
Whether I was born or not when the Orlando Magic tried to form a Super Team means absolutely nothing to this conversation. One thing is pretty clear, you are the load your mother should have swallowed and moved on with her life... :nod:

Return to Wiretap Discussion