In NBA betting, the path to the biggest profits isn’t necessarily paved by backing the league’s powerhouses like the Boston Celtics or Denver Nuggets. While betting on favorites can offer a safer route, it’s not the strategy for those aiming to maximize their returns.
You often need to take on more risk by betting on underdogs to make the most profit. These teams enter games as less likely to win, but the payouts can be substantial when they do prevail. It requires a willingness to embrace uncertainty and a keen eye for spotting undervalued teams that have the potential to outperform expectations.
New Orleans Pelicans
The New Orleans Pelicans have been a profitable choice for bettors this season, particularly when they enter games as underdogs. With a 56.2% win rate as underdogs, the Pelicans have provided a strong return on investment. Bettors who backed them in these situations have enjoyed profits of over $1,135, making them one of the most reliable teams in this category.
The Pelicans' success is partly due to their ability to stay competitive even when facing stronger teams. Despite some inconsistency, particularly when key players like Zion Williamson are out, New Orleans has regularly defied expectations. According to the most popular betting sites, the Pelicans' NBA championship odds are +4000, compared to the +300 of the Boston Celtics, who are the favorites.
Indiana Pacers
The Indiana Pacers have also been strong underdog performers. With a 51.3% win rate when not favored, the Pacers have delivered over $1,400 in profit for those who placed their faith in them in the 2023/24 season.
The Pacers' success can be attributed to solid coaching and the emergence of young talent, which has allowed them to compete effectively against stronger teams.
Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors might not be the first team that comes to mind when thinking about underdogs, but they have been a profitable pick in this season’s ATS market. With a 66.7% win rate against the spread as underdogs in 2023/24, the Warriors have offered substantial returns to those willing to bet on them in these situations.
This success is surprising, given the Warriors' reputation as a powerhouse. However, injuries and inconsistent performances have often seen them enter games as underdogs. The payout can be significant when they cover the spread, making them a high-risk, high-reward option.
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Oklahoma City Thunder has continued to outperform low expectations. With a 47.6% win rate as underdogs, the Thunder have provided a reliable option for bettors looking to back teams with high upside.
Their young roster, led by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, has consistently played above its weight, making OKC a team to watch in the underdog market.
Strategic Betting Insights
Betting on NBA underdogs requires a strategic approach, and understanding the factors that drive these teams' successes is key. Injuries, team chemistry, and even the schedule can impact a team's performance as an underdog. Savvy bettors look beyond the win-loss records and focus on these underlying factors to identify value opportunities.
Betting early before the market adjusts to late-breaking news can yield better odds. Additionally, live betting during games offers the chance to capitalize on emerging trends that the pre-game odds might not reflect.
Summary
As the 2024 NBA season progresses, underdog teams continue to present profitable opportunities for those willing to take calculated risks. Teams like the New Orleans Pelicans, Indiana Pacers, and Oklahoma City Thunder have consistently delivered value in the underdog market. While betting on favorites might seem safer, underdogs often offer the most significant potential for returns.