Since Jimmy Butler came to Miami in 2019, the Heat have been a great team without ever really being a consistently good one. Over the last five seasons, they’ve made the Finals twice and came within a whisker of making a third, but they’ve won more than 50 games just once. Their success has been mystifying in practice, but pretty simple in theory: every April and May, Jimmy Butler briefly becomes the greatest player alive.
As a result of his playoff exploits, Butler is something of an NBA folk hero. There’s Jimmy Butler, standard-issue NBA All-Star. And then there’s Playoff Jimmy, dream weaver. Despite just two All-Star appearances with the Heat, Butler is arguably the most intimidating player in the Eastern Conference. Name any of the East’s top talents and, odds are, Butler has punked them in a playoff series: Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Joel Embiid, Jalen Brunson, Trae Young and Tyrese Maxey have all been outfoxed by Butler.
To a degree, Playoff Jimmy is fundamentally the same player that Butler always is; he’s just more—he does everything more often and more adeptly. Most of all, he’s magnetic—as in, he plays like he’s outfitted with magnets. When Butler is at his peak, the Heat’s entire offensive game plan boils down to “get Jimmy the ball” and their defense leans on his ability to take it from the other team at will.
While Jimmy Butler has a cautious, metered approach, Playoff Jimmy is unrestrained. On offense, he dials up the aggression, graduating from an ensemble member to a soloist. The 2021 playoffs excepted, Butler has upped his scoring every year in the postseason, averaging 26.9 and 27.4 points per game over Miami’s last two runs. As a member of the Heat, Butler has had eight 40 point performances; all of them have come in the playoffs.
Although Butler isn’t an elite athlete in a traditional sense, he possesses a certain physical genius. As such, he’s able to turn neutral positions into positive ones, creating driving lanes that other players can’t access. Out of the triple threat, Butler manipulates the internal timing of his defender with jab steps and head feints; unsurprisingly, his trademark rocker step has been copied by every wing and forward-sized player in the league.
Even if Butler can’t beat his defender with his first step, he’s a master at the dark arts of driving—he can chart direct paths to the basket because his shins and ankles are so flexible and he can maintain his balance even as he bends and stretches because his core is so strong. And, then, if he somehow still hasn’t shed his defender by the time he gathers for a layup, he’ll simply draw a foul; his 57.9 percent free throw attempt rate (the ratio of free throw attempts per field goal attempts) was the highest of any perimeter player last season.
Last year, though, Butler looked diminished; his stats and usage rate went down while his percentage of assisted buckets went up. Tellingly, a greater proportion of his drives stalled out before reaching the rim—just 26.7 percent of his shots came within three feet of the hoop, compared to 31.4 percent in 2023. Whereas Playoff Jimmy dominated every aspect of Miami’s attack, Butler ceded control of Miami’s offense to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro for large portions of each game last season.
Still, it’s unclear whether Butler has truly declined or was merely withholding his full greatness. Muddying the waters even further, Butler sat out Miami’s brief playoff stint after spraining his knee in the play-in tournament. For what it’s worth, Miami might be starting to doubt their star. During his end-of-season press conference, Pat Riley expressed a surprising fatigue with Butler. Considering that Butler is a free agent next summer, it’s an open question how much longer he'll stay in Miami.
Without Butler, Miami’s 20 years of largely uninterrupted contendership is over: no one else on the roster has the vision or the stamina to reproduce his production and the team doesn’t have the means to find someone who can. Under Riley, the Heat have long been able to lure superstars on demand, but they’ve lost some of their mystique as of late. It turns out that you can’t trade for Damian Lillard just by being the hardest working, best conditioned, most professional, unselfish, toughest, meanest, nastiest team in the league.
In this sense, the Heat’s title hopes are inexplicably tied to Butler. They’re too good to tank, but not good enough to contend; they have no choice but to believe in him. But at this point, believing that Butler can summon his alter ego is an expression of faith. Like the existence of a benevolent God or your cat’s love, you have to trust Playoff Jimmy is still there, even if you can’t know yet for certain. For Miami, believing is seeing.
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