Heading into a college basketball season as the overwhelming favorite to be the first pick in the NBA Draft isn’t easy — and that’s especially true for a 17-year-old that reclassified to play college ball a year early. Cooper Flagg arrived in Durham with the weight of the world on his shoulders. He was hyped as the next franchise-changing prospect after giving Team USA a healthy dose of buckets when he was part of the Select Team that helped the American stars get ready for the 2024 Paris Olympics. All of that came directly after a highly decorated high school career. Whether it was at Nokomis Regional in Maine or the well-known Montverde Academy in Florida, Flagg was the best high school player in the nation. That was recognized with Flagg being named Gatorade National Men’s Athlete of the Year in 2024.
At 6-foot-9, with outrageous quick-twitch athleticism and a reported wingspan of at least 7-foot-1, Flagg pops when you see him on the floor. While having the size of a true big, Flagg glides up and down the floor. He regularly comes up with LeBron James-like chase-down blocks on defense, and he hammers home some rim-rattling dunks on the other end of the floor.
The problem for Flagg is one that isn’t actually a problem at all. That’s that most people that watch basketball watch it through an offensive-minded lens. That said, while Flagg’s 16.9 points, 8.2 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.7 steals and 1.2 blocks per game are impressive numbers, many people see a player his size shooting 43.8% from the floor and 27.1% from three and begin to panic. Then you add in the fact that Flagg had some brutal turnovers in big, nationally televised games, and you start to get the annoying questions. “Is Cooper Flagg overrated? Should he really be the first player selected?” The answer is still unequivocally, “Yes.”
Let’s start with the offense. Would it be nice if Flagg instantly stepped on the hardwood and dominated games? Sure. However, Flagg is playing in a system that doesn’t exactly suit his game, and he’s often playing in lineups that make life a little more difficult on him. Duke is currently 11-2 and sits ninth in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency rankings. That’s very good. But Flagg isn’t much of a shooter right now, even if he does take and make threes occasionally. So, the fact that he’s often paired with a traditional rim-running center doesn’t do him any favors. The Blue Devils aren’t coming close to replicating the type of spacing Flagg will have to work with at the next level.
Flagg should be the type of offensive player that sees the second-highest usage rate on his team, at the very least. He’s a very good play finisher, but he also can create for himself at all three levels, and he sees the floor extremely well. In fact, since 2010, there has been only nine seasons in which a player taller than 6-foot-8 has had an assist rate of 20% or higher, a usage rate of 30% or higher and an assist-to-turnover ratio of at least 1.0 (according to Bart Torvik). Flagg is on pace to make it 10. That speaks to how impressive Flagg is as a 6-foot-9 initiator, and he’s doing that in a shrunken court. Playing a more up-tempo style, like we tend to see in the NBA, will only make him more dangerous. And if Flagg is next to a stretch five that can actually pull rim protectors away from the basket to open up the floor, he’s going to look much, much better offensively.
Now, it isn’t all perfect with Flagg’s offense. The jumper is a work in progress, and that’s the thing that casual observers notice immediately. However, Flagg sports some decent-looking mechanics, has a tireless work ethic and has shown some signs of life as a shooter lately. Over the last three games, the big wing is 6 for 12 from the outside. And he’s coming off his best offensive performance of the season, as he had 24 points and six dimes on 9 for 14 shooting from the floor and 2 for 4 shooting from 3 against Virginia Tech.
If Flagg ever finds consistency as a shooter, he’s going to be one of the best players in the NBA. It’s as simple as that. Flagg is already very good at posting up smaller wings, he’s capable of blowing by slower wings and he’s comfortable pulling up off the dribble. He should also be able to blow by more gifted wings in the future, too. Flagg’s handle needs to be tightened up a bit, but that’s very correctable and should be fixed early in his NBA career. So, if he’s ever able to turn into a guy that can regularly shoot over the top of the defense, look out.
However, Flagg doesn’t need to turn into a lethal shooter in order to be worthy of the first pick in the 2025 NBA Draft. The reality is that he’s already going to bring so much to teams as a connective offensive piece, and he’s going to be able to score because of what he already does so well. You see it with a guy like Amen Thompson. If you’re athletic, have good instincts and can finish plays, you can overcome not having a reliable jumper. And Flagg is much bigger and more polished than Thompson. His shooting form is also much further along.
Of course, what was laid out above might not sound like a surefire No. 1 — especially when seeing a guy like Dylan Harper absolutely lighting it up for Rutgers as a big lead guard with an electric offensive game. But that’s because it leaves out the defense. And when it comes to the defensive end of the floor, Flagg is an all-world player that should be in the All-Defensive Team mix the second his shoes touch an NBA court.
Some of the most popular player comparisons that come up for Flagg include Jayson Tatum and Andrei Kirilenko. And one that isn’t as common as it should be is Draymond Green. Like all three of those players, Flagg has unique defensive versatility. On an island, Flagg will be asked to blanket the opposing team’s best forward. However, he has the length, lower-body strength and overall fire within to guard up when he needs to. So, don’t be surprised to see Flagg as a small-ball five in the NBA. He’s also extremely comfortable stepping out and defending guards on the perimeter, as he's great at anticipating where plays are going and can quickly flip his hips to stay in front of smaller players.
Flagg isn’t quite Victor Wembanyama, as he’s not 7-foot-4 with pool noodles for arms. So, it’s hard to say he’s the best defensive prospect we’ve seen in decades, as we just had one of the best ones in the 2023 class. But if not for Wembanyama landing on planet earth, people would be way more comfortable calling Flagg a generational defensive prospect. If he’s drafted to a team in the bottom five in adjusted defensive rating — which he likely will be — he will significantly raise the floor of that group defensively. That’s what players with his on-ball and off-ball defensive capabilities do.
Flagg’s up-and-down offensive play in his freshman season might make it hard to see him as a franchise player one day, but you need to try and understand the context. Flagg is a dynamic two-way prospect that has one minor flaw. And Duke’s roster construction isn’t doing him any favors in hiding it. But Flagg will eventually land in a situation that brings out the very best in him, and he’ll likely work the kinks out with the jumper. So, when all is said and done, he should be a multi-time All-Star, as well as a multi-time All-Defensive player. Guys like that go No. 1 in drafts. Full stop.
