Barring some sort of surprise, Rutgers wing Ace Bailey won’t be the first player selected in the 2025 NBA Draft. That’ll probably be Duke’s Cooper Flagg, and that isn’t anything new for Bailey. Flagg was the No. 1 player in the 2024 ESPN 100, slotting in one spot above the Scarlet Knights freshman. And realistically, there’s a shot Bailey isn’t even the first player selected from Rutgers. Teams are loving what they’re seeing from guard Dylan Harper. However, this draft could boast multiple franchise-changing talents. And for all his flaws, Bailey can be one of them.
This season, Bailey is averaging 19.1 points, 7.6 rebounds, 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals per game, and he’s shooting 46.3% from the floor and 33.9% from three. Those shooting numbers leave a lot to be desired. And the same goes for his 54.9% shooting from the charity stripe. However, 6-foot-10 wings with plus-level athleticism and three-level scoring ability don’t grow on trees. Bailey has all of that, and more.
As the 2025 draft becomes front of mind, you’re going to hear a lot about Bailey’s negatives. The shooting percentages are low for a player his size, the free throw shooting is nightmarish and his shot selection is abysmal. All of that is valid. And the shot selection is the biggest issue for me. He’s a big, athletic wing that can handle the rock and get to the basket. He should do a lot more damage as a driver, where he has the potential to be remarkable when it comes to getting to the free throw line. However, Bailey prefers to settle for long, contested mid-range jumpers — and he often fires away with just a few inches between him and the three-point line. It can be infuriating. But the reason we pick at Bailey’s weaknesses is because of how many strengths he has. And that’s what teams need to focus on this summer. This is a special basketball player with unteachable shot-making ability and the type of size and two-way potential that teams covet.
In terms of isolation scoring, Bailey is as advanced as it gets for a college player. He loves to face up his opponent, hit him with a few jab steps and then rise up over him for a jumper. And while the shooting percentages might not be great, Bailey has a beautiful-looking shot and awesome mechanics. In fact, it’s hard to worry at all about him being a good shooter at the next level. There’s an awesome foundation for him to work with when it comes to the jumper. Bailey is also good at using his first step to blow by an opponent, and that’s especially true when the jumper is going. He’s also capable of either finishing at the rim or taking tough runners.
Bailey also has an insane amount of post moves and counters. His turnaround jumper is a go-to shot for him, and he’s also capable of creating a ton of space when he goes to his step back. All in all, the footwork is excellent and the ability to make something out of nothing is absurd.
Some people absolutely hate player comparisons for draft prospects, and it’s understandable. You don’t want to set a player up for failure by comparing them to somebody great. However, in terms of pure playing style and aesthetic, there’s a lot of Carmelo Anthony and Khris Middleton in Bailey’s game. However, it’s those two with a little bit of that Andrew Wiggins awkward-looking uprightness. But either way, Bailey’s size and that type of skill set gives him a very high floor. And a high floor is always a nice thing for a player with insane upside.
As with most prospects, Bailey just needs to be put in the right situation. While he’s as good of a tough shot maker as there is in this class — and really the last few drafts — it’d be nice to see him in a system that makes things a little easier on him. With Rutgers, Bailey is surrounded by a lot of non-shooters, and he’s playing for a defensive-minded head coach. That makes for a clunky offensive experience. He doesn’t have a lot of room to operate, and he’s hardly ever being set up for easy buckets — whether that’s clean catch-and-shoot looks or easy shots at the basket. Bailey would benefit greatly from being required to move a lot more off the ball and being surrounded by good shooting. The isolation scoring will always be there, and teams will love the possibility of him being their late-clock safety valve. But earlier in possessions, getting Bailey on the move and coming off screens would help him avoid some of the bad shots he is currently taking.
Still, this is a player that has all the offensive ability in the world. The shot creation is next-level, he can hit spot-up jumpers and he’s going to be a terror in transition — or just any space at all. If Bailey’s shot diet improves, it’s easy to envision an All-Star future. That’s especially true if he can take advantage of his size and scoring gravity to become a better passer.
Bailey is also a strong defensive prospect. He’s not the lockdown on-ball guy or off-ball defensive playmaker that Flagg is, and that’s ultimately why the Blue Devils phenom should go first. But Bailey has shown some flashes of being a good on-ball option, and he’s solid when it comes to team defense. That’s to be expected with a player with his size, length and athleticism, but it’s never a given. You have to be wired a certain way, which is another way of saying that you have to care. Well, Bailey cares. He wouldn’t be playing for Steve Pikiell if he didn’t, and it doesn’t matter how much NIL money Rutgers was able to throw at him.
Poking holes in somebody’s game is part of the process. Everybody does it. And it’s important to try and spot a player’s red flags. However, you never want to do it at the expense of realizing what makes them great. That appears to be happening with Bailey a little bit. This is an otherworldly prospect that probably could have been a top overall pick in several of the drafts to occur in the last 20 years. So, when you tune in to watch Bailey play this year, you might see some ugly. That’s part of being relied on to create offense in a situation in which it’s difficult to do so. But you should also try and focus on the good. There’s a lot of it. And if your team ends up selecting him in the draft, you might have a new franchise player. With adequate surroundings, his game is going to be electric at the next level. Just go watch the highlights of his 39-point performance against Indiana on January 2nd. Even in a lopsided loss, it might have been the best prospect performance we’ll see this entire season.