There could be as many as seven future Hall of Famers in this year's NBA Finals. Yet in Game 2, the leading scorer was Mario Chalmers. In Game 3, Gary Neal. The three-point shooters, not the superstars, have taken over.
The Spurs and Heat are built to space the floor and attack with the three and both want to play as small as possible. The result has been small-ball gone wild, an up-and-down series filled with dramatic shifts in momentum. It's soccer on the hardwood and it might just be the future of the sport.
Their personnel are different, but the two best teams in the NBA this season share a similar philosophy. Put as much shooting on the floor as you possibly can without sacrificing defense. Spacing the floor is the top priority. Almost every role player in this series can shoot 3's. The only ones who can't are big men -- Tiago Splitter and Boris Diaw for San Antonio, Udonis Haslem and Chris "Birdman" Andersen for Miami. All four had their playing time cut in Game 3. They don't need to match up with each other.
Throughout Game 3, Gregg Popovich and Erik Spoelstra kept daring each other to go smaller. They started lineups with two big men, but went small almost immediately after. Spoelstra struck first, bringing in Mike Miller for Haslem. Popovich brought in Matt Bonner, a big man in name only, for Splitter. After a few minutes of Bonner on Miller greatness, Pop went small too, replacing him with Neal. It was all four-out basketball from there, with eight perimeter players on the floor the entire second quarter.
As a result, there was some real flow to the game. It was up-and-down action without many stoppages of play. There were only 17 free-throws in the first half, with large stretches played in semi-transition. That’s the way the NBA has been heading this season: more three-point attempts and fewer free-throws. The two outliers in the playoffs were the Pacers and the Grizzlies, who slowed the game to a crawl with massive front-lines. With those two eliminated in the last round, the NBA Finals have been wide-open.
In the first three games of the series, the three-point shot has been the knock-out punch. In Game 2, Miami closed out San Antonio with a 33-5 run in only seven minutes. In Game 3, the tables turned, as the Spurs reeled off runs of 7-0, 11-0, 13-0 and 11-0 in the second half. Neither game even made it to crunch time, as early TKO’s left fans with as much Tracy McGrady action as they could handle. All jokes aside, he's still only 34 and he was one of the best players in the world in his 20's. If healthy, he might be able to help a team.
There are a bunch of professional shooters in this series. If they get clean looks at the basket, they aren’t going to miss very often, especially if the defense isn’t set. In Games 2 and 3, Ray Allen and Miller went 11-for-13 from beyond the three-point line. Danny Green and Neal went 20-27! In the halfcourt, the Heat use LeBron's size and floor vision to generate three-point shots while the Spurs run pick-and-rolls, but the end result is the same. Where both teams become deadly is when their shooters start walking into transition 3's.
If either starts playing downhill, the game can get out of hand pretty fast. The team that has won the turnover battle has won all three games, with the Spurs +4 in Games 1 and 3 and -10 in Game 2. This is a possession focused series, which is why offensive rebounds and dead-ball turnovers are as important as the live-ball variety. Since both teams take so many 3's, the one with more field goal attempts has the chance to blow the game open. In Game 3, San Antonio took 14 more 3’s.
Even after three games, there are moves still on the board for both coaches. Miami, down 2-1, could move Miller into the starting line-up, start LeBron on Splitter and go four-out for 40+ minutes. Conversely, they could play Birdman and Bosh together and try to force the Spurs to match up with their size. Either way, in terms of line-ups, Splitter is the fulcrum point of the series. How much he plays with Duncan determines how much small-ball is played.
In the three years since The Decision, no team has been able to threaten Miami playing small-ball. The 2011 Mavericks won by shifting the rules of engagement, a strategy followed by the Pacers in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals. Both beat the Heat up and slowed the pace of the game. The Spurs, in contrast, have been beating them at their own game. In that sense, LeBron and Wade hitting open jumpers is the only adjustment Miami has to make. They are getting the shots they want at the pace they prefer.
With both teams getting so much of their offense from high-variance shots, there could be more wild shifts in the narrative ahead. That’s the nature of a game played along the three-point line. Rather than Duncan and LeBron battling to control the paint, the key has been who can run more plays that get open shots for Neal, Green, Miller and Allen. San Antonio and Miami are both built around the idea that it’s impossible to protect the paint and guard the three-point line against modern offenses.
Indiana was able to do it, but they play half-court station-to-station basketball that isn’t in the DNA of either team in the Finals. Every year, more players of all shapes and sizes come into the league with a three-point shot. Front offices are building their teams around the strengths of modern players while players adapt their games to the philosophy of the modern NBA. It’s a chicken-and-egg dynamic whose end result has been some beautiful basketball. The future is here and it’s everything basketball fans could have wanted.