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The conventional view on how one builds an NBA championship team has been that it is done in a manner similar to the NFL or MLB: you collect a bunch of good players, have a few All-Stars, get a good coach and with experience you eventually can contend. This is the view held by most fans and sportswriters and even many GMs.

This view on building a contender is comforting: it states that it takes good drafting and judgment, hard work and a little bit of luck, but every team has a shot. As one writer put it in assessing the rebuilding Boston Celtics future roster in June 2013: “First off, that's a solid, young (27ish) lineup probably a 6th seed in the East. Add in a couple of years together, they could compete for a ring in 3 years.”

And NBA officials (and sportswriters) have little incentive to dissuade people of this belief, as it encourages the notion that the league is wide open and competitive, and everyone has a chance at the title.

Yet nothing could be further from the truth. Winning, even contending, for an NBA title is all about having superstars. And by superstars I do not means guys who are really good and make lots of All-Star teams and maybe even get to the Hall of Fame. No, I mean definitional players like LeBron James, Tim Duncan, Kobe Bryant, Shaquille O’Neal, Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird. These guys’ teams win all the titles. If that were the case in baseball or football, Barry Sanders and Barry Bonds would not have ended their mind-boggling careers bereft of a championship ring. They would have had three or four, at the bare minimum.

Lots of fans and teams have begun to appreciate this phenomenon, but it is even stronger than many of them suspect. In Part 1, I lay out the evidence for the thesis. In Part 2, I discuss what this means for an NBA team. It really changes everything.

The Superstar Theory is a matter I have been researching for several years, and it has been published in several incarnations. The response has been positive, including from people in and around the NBA. I also received some valuable criticism, so I have significantly refined and recalibrated the data. I tightened the argument so that the case is considerably more muscular now. If anything, by doing so the relationship between having a superstar and winning an NBA title is made that much stronger. The implications for how to build an NBA team could not be more dramatic.

My exercise is simple: First, I make a list of the very best players in NBA history over the past 58 years. Why do I begin with the 1955-56 season? That is when the MVP award was introduced and MVP voting is a key part of my evidence. I use objective criteria, not my personal opinion. I want the list to be made based upon regular-season performance, to avoid having a list of best players that rewards players for playing on championship teams.

Once I locate a list of the top NBA players over the past 58 years, I figure out who the two best players have been on each NBA champion, and the two best players on each team that lost in the Finals. I also determine the best players on the other two teams that lost each year in the conference finals. In other words I determine the best players on each of the NBA’s “final four” every season, as well as the second best player on the two teams in the finals. I then see how many of these best players are from the list of best regular-season players, and where on the list they can be found.

The results, as you will soon see, are astounding.

Determining the Best NBA Players since 1955-56

Who are the best players in NBA history? How can we determine it, without it becoming a battle of subjective opinions? In particular, for our purposes, we want to determine the best players in NBA regular season history. If we have a system that rewards players for playoff performances my overall argument will be circular, because players on championship teams will be far more likely to be at the top of the list of best players.

In the past decade a number of sophisticated systems for measuring player performances have been developed and are increasingly being used by teams. These often require breaking down game film. I have no doubt if one could do that for every NBA game since 1955 a superior list could be generated, but that is not an option.

Instead, I have tracked down the four most objective criteria I could find. The value of each of these is that they are determined every year immediately after the regular season and before the playoffs. I want this list to be based on the best judgment at the time, not on hindsight. None of these is perfect, but they are as objective a standard as we can hope to find that can extend back over 58 years. In a weighted combination, they will give us our list of superstars.

The first and by far the most important criterion is the MVP voting, because this is done explicitly to select the best players in the league for the season. Its strength is that it does not care about positions, so if the best players are all centers, they can get the most votes. The weakness is that it can be a bit erratic; players can have great seasons yet seemingly drop in (even disappear from) the MVP voting just because they are not in fashion. Sometimes, the players who finish 10-15 in the voting only get one or two fifth-place votes and they can seem like somewhat eccentric choices. I have gone through every MVP vote since the award was introduced in 1956 and allocated points to players on the following system:

MVP

MVP: 16 points

MVP 2nd: 14 points

MVP 3rd: 12 points

MVP 4th: 10 points

MVP 5th: 8 points

MVP 6th-10th: 6 points

MVP 11th-15th: 4 points

So if a player wins two MVPs, finishes third in the MVP voting one time, and finishes 7th and 12th on two other occasions, that player would get 54 MVP points.

The second criterion is All-NBA teams. There were first and second All-NBA teams until 1989, when a third team was added. (I went back and added an All-NBA third team for every season from 1977-88, the years following the ABA-NBA merger when the league had many more teams, so players from that period would not be penalized. I used the All-NBA voting I could find for some of those years and just made reasonable guesses otherwise.) The strength of these All-NBA teams is that they tend more than the MVP to reward players independent of a team’s success. The weakness of the All-NBA teams is that they are determined by position. This means that only one center can make first-team. We have seen the absurd situation of a center like Bill Russell or Dave Cowens winning the MVP award yet making second-team all-NBA. The All-NBA teams cannot accurately reflect how bigs dominate the sport. Great players like Nate Thurmond and Bob Lanier never made first or second team All-NBA in their careers, yet they often finished in the top 10 of MVP voting.

Likewise, there are periods where there are three truly great forwards or three truly great guards in the game, but only two can get first-team status. When healthy, for example, Dwyane Wade, Kobe Bryant, Derrick Rose, Russell Westbrook and Chris Paul arguably are all top-5 caliber players, but only two can make first-team all-NBA. And that leaves other great players like James Harden, Tony Parker and Rajon Rondo on the outside looking in.

The scoring is pretty straightforward.

All-NBA

First team All-NBA: 10 points

Second team All-NBA: 6 points

Third team All-NBA: 4 points

The third criterion is the first and second All-Defense teams, which the NBA introduced in 1968-69. The NBA wisely understood that its standard All-NBA team tended to favor players with impressive offensive statistics, even though great defensive players won many games in their own way. Defense is half the game, and all-NBA teams do not tend to give it anywhere near half-weight.

All-Defense

First team All-Defense: 4 points

Second-team All-Defense: 3 points

Because the All-Defensive teams did not begin until 1969, I retroactively estimated how players who made these teams after 1969 but who had much or most of their careers before 1969 would have done had the All-Defensive teams gone back to 1956. This way players like Russell, West, Havlicek, Chamberlain, Gus Johnson and Thurmond were not slighted in the rankings. (I put their All-Defensive figures in parentheses to indicate they include my estimates.) Here I relied on recent research on the top defensive players from the 1955-69 era, and I have been conservative in my allocation of points.

I give an additional two points for the player selected Defensive Player of the Year. This award honors the truly dominant game-changing defenders, who were insufficiently recognized by merely being first-team All-Defense. Because this award began in 1982-83, I retroactively award points for it to players who would have been likely winners between 1956-1982. That means: Bill Russell, Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Bill Walton and Dennis Johnson. (Again, where my estimates are added to the real totals, I use parentheses.) 

So if a player makes the first-team All-Defense twice and second-team once, he gets 11 all-defense team points. If he was Defensive Player of the Year once, he gets 2 more points, for a grand total of 13.

I give a single point for every year a player makes an NBA All-Star team for the mid-season game.

Using these criteria, I tabulated a point total for every player in the league since 1955, assigning points for every time a player got one of these honors. (Thanks to an extraordinary website, this is not such an arduous task.) The more times a player gets in the top 15 in MVP balloting and the more times a player makes all-NBA and all-Defense teams, and plays in the All-Star game, the more points a player will accrue. The most points a player could get in a single season is 33: MVP (16 points), first-team All-NBA (10 points), first-team All-Defense (4 points), Defensive Player of the Year (2 points), and the All-Star game (1 point). In four of the past five seasons, for example, LeBron James, racked up 31 points.

One might quibble with how I weighted the categories, but after considerable debate and input this is the best I could do. I will say that after playing with these numbers for some time, the actual ranking does not change very much if the weighting of these four categories is altered marginally. It is pretty much the same cast of characters in pretty much the same order.

A Few Problems that needed to be addressed

There were a few issues I needed to sort out along the way. First, I decided not to include the ABA, because to do so would mean that there would be double the points given for players in the years from around 1968 to 1976, and that would give players from that era an unfair dominance in the rankings. At the same time, to not include those MVPs and All-ABA awards would disadvantage tremendous players like Julius Erving and Rick Barry who spent years dominating that league. They would have certainly dominated the NBA had they been in the NBA during those same years.

I solved this problem by doing the ranking not by the total number of points accrued during a career, but rather by taking a player’s total number of points and dividing it by the number of seasons they played at least 1,900 minutes. (For the two strike and lockout shortened seasons of 1998-99 and 2011-12, I prorated the minutes.) That way the rankings are based on yearly averages rather than total points and do not penalize players who had fewer seasons in the league because of the ABA. It still clobbers Dr. J and Barry because they had monster years in the ABA that would have raised their averages, but it does not clobber them as much as if we simply used raw totals.

Using season averages as the basis of rankings also has the beneficial effect of not penalizing players like Bob Cousy or Bill Sharman or Dolph Schayes who had several great years before the 1955-56 season.

Most important, by basing it on yearly averages rather than total points, it means we can slot active young superstars right in the heart of the list. They do not need to play ten years to get on the list. We can see who the real up-and-coming studs are. (Active players are bold-faced.) Most young stars like Paul, James, Durant, Howard, Westbrook and Rose will see their averages shoot up in their late 20s as they rack up several 20-plus point seasons in a row.

What follows is the list, then, of the 117 best regular season players in the NBA since 1955. Why 117? I cut it off with players who averaged at least 4.0 points per season for their qualifying years. A player who averages 4.0 points per season is someone who over the course of his career is getting regular recognition as one of the 15 best players in the league a majority of his years in the league. That is the ante for admission.

This may seem like an easy target for a player to achieve, but it is not. Only 117 players made the cut. A lot of very good players, scores of perennial All-Stars, did not make the cut.

In the list of 117, there is a huge drop-off from the top to the bottom. Therefore, I break the 117 superstars into four groups: the platinum medal superstars, the gold medal superstars; the silver medal superstars and the bronze medal superstars. By doing so we can see who among the superstars are carrying the most weight.

There are three problems with basing the list on annual averages rather then career totals points: First, players with short but productive careers get favored over players with longer and almost as productive careers. This would distort the list. Without some qualification, Bill Walton would rank as the very best player in NBA history, because for two seasons Bill Walton was unstoppable. But does anyone think Bill Walton is the best player in NBA history?

So I solved this problem by making the number of qualifying seasons at eight for a player to make the top of the list. Those players whose annual totals qualify but who do not have eight qualifying seasons, like Bill Walton, are on the list, but they are ranked after those players who did have eight qualifying seasons.

I keep active players in the main list, under the assumption that they will all eventually get eight qualifying seasons, unless, like Jermaine O’Neal, it is obvious they will never play 1,900 minutes in a season again. Also, guys like Cousy and Sharman who had enough active seasons before 1955-56 to qualify make the main list. No reason to penalize their ranking.

Understood this way, the number 117 is misleading, because 22 of these superstars had short careers usually for health reasons. Only 95 of the players on this list had eight qualifying seasons or are currently active. These are the league’s dominant players. That is the heart of the list.

Second, players who extended their careers into their late 30s see their season averages decline, and this pushes them down the list below where they would have been had they retired on their 35^th birthday. Does anyone really think Michael Jordan was any less a dominant superstar from 1984-98 because he came back for two seasons as he approached 40?

I solved this problem by not including as seasons those years players played after their 35^th birthday, unless they were seasons in which the player received top-10 MVP or All-NBA points; in other words, seasons with over 1,900 minutes counted for players over 35 as long as the players were in or very near their primes. Players like Jordan, Kareem, Ewing and Havlicek are not penalized for having such long careers. At the same time, when a player has 17 qualifying seasons, like Kareem, or 16 like Karl Malone, it is a fantastic accomplishment. And those guys came into the league at age 22.

So just racking up a number of qualifying seasons is impressive in its own right. Players who play at superstar level for 12-15 years are better players than guys who play at a similar level for 8-10 seasons. For that reason, I give a point for every qualifying season over 10 seasons.

Third, players who come into the league young and remain teenagers at the end of their first and possibly second seasons do not have those seasons count unless they make an all-NBA team or get top-10 recognition in MVP votes. Why should LeBron or Kobe or Durant be penalized for a rookie season when they were 18 or 19 years old? What matters is how they fare from 20-35.

Even with these qualifications, I do not think the list is perfect. There are players not on this list who I think are better than some of the players on it, especially toward the bottom. Some of the druggies who make the list from the 70s and 80s seem out of place. But that is unavoidable. Part of the problem is that the four categories I use are not perfect. The voters are far from perfect. Players get penalized when they play in the same era as other great players at their position. Some players are dominant for a handful of years, like Moses Malone, Dave Cowens or Hakeem Olajuwon, and their career averages do not demonstrate exactly how incredible they were for their peak years.

That said, this list is as objective as it gets using the available resources.

Nor do I think this can be regarded as statistically the final word: that, for example, Larry Bird is necessarily a better player than Magic Johnson because he has a slightly higher score.

Or consider this: Had Oscar Robertson retired after 11 seasons in 1971 he would be among the top dozen players in the game’s history, on the platinum list below. And anyone who saw the Big O play in the 1960s, as I did growing up in Ohio, knows that is exactly where he belongs. But because he played three additional years with Milwaukee, he slides down to the gold list.

Nevertheless, I think we can use this system to separate these players from the other really good players in NBA history and the balance of the league, and then among these 117 players, to create four general clusters: platinum medal, gold medal, silver medal, and bronze medal superstars.

The 95 Greatest Players in NBA History since 1955-56

 (plus a 22 man injured reserve of players who would qualify if they has played at least eight qualifying seasons):

Platinum Medal Superstars

	All-NBA	MVP	DEF.	All-	TOTAL	STAR	AVG
PLAYER	PTS	PTS	PTS	Star	PTS	YRS	PTS
1. Michael Jordan	106 +	156 +	39 +	14 =	316	/11 =	28.7
2. Bill Russell	78 +	163+	(74) +	12 =	328	/12 =	27.3
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar	130 +	202 +	(47) +	20 =	406	/17 =	23.9
4. Larry Bird	96 +	138 +	9 +	12 =	256	/11 =	23.3
5. LeBron James	82 +	120 +	20 +	9 =	231	/10 =	23.1
6. Magic Johnson	100  +	138 +	0 +	12 =	251	/11 =	22.8
6. Bob Pettit	96 +	108 +	(14) +	10  =	228	/10 =	22.8
8. David Robinson	68 +	94 +	30 +	10 =	222	/10 =	22.2
9. Kobe Bryant	130 +	130 +	45 +	15 =	325	/15 =	21.7
9. Tim Duncan	122 +	134 +	50 +	14 =	325	/15 =	21.7
11. Jerry West	112 +	102 +	(49)+	14 =	280	/13 =	21.5
12. Wilt Chamberlain	88 +	138 +	(29) +	13 =	271	/13 =	20.8
13. Bob Cousy	72 +	66 +	(14) +	7 =	162	/8 =	20.3*

* Cousy gets three points for playing 13 qualifying seasons (one point for each season over 10) even though six of the seasons were before 1955-56.) 

Qualify But Below Eight Season Minimum:

13a. Bill Walton

16 +

30

(12) +

2 =

60

/2 =

30

COMMENT: I made the platinum medal cut-off at averaging 20 points per season. Only 13 players in NBA history since 1956 qualify, 14 if one includes Bill Walton, who basically owned the NBA for two seasons in the late 1970s. If Julius Erving’s five ABA seasons had been in the NBA, he would have made the cut and joined the platinum team. These players are the NBA’s Mount Rushmore, the Gods of the Arena, the legends of the game, the guys people will still talk about in a hundred years. Pettit is unknown to all but the old-timers, but he was a dominant player in his era. These players basically ranked as among the top three-five players in the game virtually their entire careers, or until injuries took their toll as with Bird and Robinson. They were invariably MVP candidates every year. They personify the term “franchise” player.

Gold Medal Superstars

	All-NBA	MVP	DEF.	All-	TOTAL	STAR	AVG
PLAYER	PTS	PTS	PTS	Star	PTS	YRS	PTS
14. Karl Malone	140 +	132 +	15 +	14 =	307	/16 =	19.2
15. Kevin Durant	40 +	50 +	0 +	4 =	94	/5 =	18.8
16. Elgin Baylor	100 +	82 +	(9) +	11 =	203	/11 =	18.5
17. Oscar Robertson	102 +	100 +	(32) +	12 =	250	/14 =	17.9
18. Shaquille O’Neal	108 +	130 +	9 +	15 =	267	/15 =	17.8
19. Dwight Howard	58 +	48 +	25 +	7 =	138	/8 =	17.3
20. Hakeem Olajuwon	90 +	98 +	36 +	12 =	240	/14 =	17.1
21. Julius Erving	70 +	70 +	0 +	11 =	151	/9 =	16.8
22. Chris Paul	40 +	18 +	18 +	6 =	112	/7 =	16
23. Bill Sharman*	46 +	14  +	(14) +	5 =	79	/5 =	15.8
24. Kevin Garnett	66 +	84 +	47 +	15 =	217	/15 =	14.5
25. Moses Malone	72 +	104 +	7 +	12 =	199	/14 =	14.2
26. Dolph Schayes*	44 +	48 +	0 +	7 =	99	/7 =	14.1
27. George Gervin	66 +	64 +	0 +	9 =	139	/10 =	13.9
28. Dirk Nowitzki	82 +	84 +	0 +	11 =	180	/13 =	13.8
29. John Havlicek	82 +	36 +	(53) +	13 =	188	/14 =	13.4
29. Charles Barkley	84 +	88 +	0 +	11 =	187	/14 =	13.4
31. Walt Frazier	52 +	26 +	(32) +	7 =	117	/9 =	13

Qualify But Below Eight Season Minimum:

31a. Sidney Moncrief	34 +	34 +	23 +	5 =	96	/6 =	16
31b. Maurice Stokes					43	/3 =	14.3

 

COMMENT:  This rounds out the NBA top 30, more or less, since 1955, counting the players with at least eight qualifying seasons. I made the cut-off for gold-medal status at 13 points, because a player who averages that during his career is basically going first-team all-NBA and/or getting top 10 MVP votes a majority of the years when they are healthy. If Rick Barry’s four ABA seasons had been in the NBA, he would be firmly entrenched in the gold medal group. These players were/are among the seven or eight best players in the league throughout much of their careers. Many of these guys gave multi-year stretches where they are arguably the best players in the league. Durant will likely be leaving the gold team for platinum status in a year or two; he is the only probable prospective platinum player in the league today. Paul and/or Howard may follow if they stay healthy, but time is definitely not on their side. That is probably it for current NBA players. 

Silver Medal Superstars

	All-NBA	MVP	DEF.	All-	TOTAL	STAR	AVG
PLAYER	PTS	PTS	PTS	Star	PTS	YRS	PTS
32. John Stockton	68 +	58 +	15 +	10 =	153	/12 =	12.8
33. Gary Payton	58 +	54 +	38 +	9 =	162	/13 =	12.5
34. Dwyane Wade	50 +	54 +	9 +	9 =	122	/10 =	12.2
35. Tracy McGrady	46 +	44 +	0 +	7 =	97	/8 =	12.1
36. Steve Nash	50 +	72 +	0 +	8 =	131	/11 =	11.9
36. Patrick Ewing	46 +	64 +	9 +	11 =	131	/11 =	11.9
38. Scottie Pippen	50 +	42 +	38 +	7 =	139	/12 =	11.6
39. Rick Barry	60 +	34 +	0 +	8 =	102	/9 =	11.3
40. Paul Arizin*					77	/7 =	11
40. Derrick Rose	10 +	20 +	0 +	3 =	33	/3 =	11
42. Jason Kidd	56 +	52 +	31 +	10 =	153	/14 =	10.9
43. Nate Archibald	42 +	38 +	0 +	6 =	86	/8 =	10.8
44. Dave Cowens	22 +	52 +	(12) +	7 =	93	/9 =	10.3
45. Bob McAdoo	24 +	50 +	0 +	5 =	79	/8 =	9.9
46. Elvin Hayes	56 +	50 +	6 +	12 =	127	/13 =	9.8
47. Grant Hill	34 +	36 +	0 +	7 =	77	/8 =	9.6
48. Allen Iverson	52 +	58 +	0 +	11 =	124	/13 =	9.5
49. Isiah Thomas	50 +	38 +	0 +	12 =	101	/11 =	9.2
50. Ben Wallace	26 +	18 +	31 +	4 =	79	/9 =	8.8
51. Alonzo Mourning	16 +	34 +	12 +	7 =	69	/8 =	8.6
52. Sam Jones	18 +	24 +	(20) +	5 =	67	/8 =	8.4
53. Dominique Wilkins	42 +	46 +	0 +	9 =	99	/12 =	8.3
54. Dennis Rodman	8 +	18 +	35 +	2 =	63	/8 =	7.9
55. Spencer Haywood*	32 +	18 +	0 +	4 =	54	/7 =	7.7
56. Amar’e Stoudemire	34 +	28 +	0 +	6 =	68	/9 =	7.6
57. Billy Cunningham	36 +	20 +	0 +	4 =	60	/8 =	7.5
58. Blake Griffin	12 +	6 +	0 +	3 =	21	/3 =	7

Qualify But Below Eight Season Minimum:

58a. Willis Reed	34 +	40 +	(9) +	7 =	90	/7 =	12.9
58b. George Yardley	16 +	22 +	0 +	5 =	43	/4 =	10.8
58c. David Thompson	24 +	24 +	0 +	4 =	52	/5 =	10.4
58d. Gus Johnson	24 +	6 +	(20) +	5 =	55	/6 =	9.2
58e. Neil Johnston	16 +	4 +	(3) +	3 =	26	/3 =	8.7
58f. Paul Westphal	(40) +	6 +	0 +	5 =	51	/6 =	8.5
58g. Mark Price	22 +	24 +	0 +	4 =	50	/6 =	8.3

COMMENT: This group rounds out the NBA top 60, more or less, since 1956, not counting the players with under eight qualifying seasons. Generally the silver medal players, averaging between seven and 13 points per season, were first or second (or third) team All-NBA much of their careers and received frequent recognition in MVP voting. During much of their careers, these are players who would be considered among the 10 best in the league. Several of the silver medal players have periods in their careers when they rank in the top 3-5 in the league; they simply do not have this status extend for their entire careers, like the gold and platinum medal superstars. These are all sure-fire Hall-of Famers, legends, and all-time greats who had stellar careers.

Bronze Medal Superstars  (abbreviated format)

PLAYER	PTS	YEARS	AVG.
59. Dennis Johnson	90	13	6.9
60. Rajon Rondo	34	5	6.8
61. Pete Maravich	53	8	6.6
62. Chris Webber	72	11	6.5
62. Clyde Drexler	85	13	6.5
64. Carmelo Anthony	63	10	6.3
64. Jerry Lucas	63	10	6.3
66. Russell Westbrook	31	5	6.2
67. Kevin McHale	60	10	6.0
68. Tim Hardaway	59	10	5.9
69. Dave Bing	64	11	5.8
70. Alex English	63	11	5.7
70. Bernard King	63	11	5.7
72. Norm Van Lier	50	9	5.6
72. Nate Thurmond	67	12	5.6
74. Tony Parker	53	10	5.3
74. Anfernee Hardaway	48	9	5.3
74. Tommy Heinsohn	42	8	5.3
77. Marques Johnson	47	9	5.2
78. Dikembe Mutombo	56	11	5.1
79. Bobby Jones	39	8	4.9
79. Robert Parish	59	12	4.9
81. Hal Greer	61	13	4.7
81. Jack Twyman	42	9	4.7
81. Richie Guerin	42	9	4.7
84. Shawn Kemp	46	10	4.6
85. Kevin Love	18	4	4.5
86. Manu Ginobili	26	6	4.3
86. Chauncey Billups	52	12	4.3
86. Joe Dumars	56	13	4.3
86. Wes Unseld	51	12	4.3
86. Dave DeBusschere	47	11	4.3
86. Manu Ginobili	26	6	4.3
92. Bob Lanier	42	10	4.2
93. Paul Pierce	53	13	4.1
94. Chris Mullin	41	10	4.1
95. Gus Williams	36	9	4.0

 

Qualify But Below Eight Season Minimum:

95a. Kevin Johnson	55	7	6.9
95b. Cliff Hagan	35	6	5.8
95c. George McGinnis	29	5	5.8
95d. Yao Ming	39	7	5.6
95e. Mich. Ray Richardson	28	5	5.6
95f. Gilbert Arenas	27	5	5.4
95g. Gene Shue	37	7	5.3
95h. Ralph Sampson	16	3	5.3
95i.  Brandon Roy	19	4	4.8
95j.  Jermaine O’Neal	32	7	4.6
95k. Bob Love	32	7	4.6
95l. Artis Gilmore	31	7	4.4

COMMENT:  Here, too, we see a list of Hall-of-Famers and legends though there is a notable drop from the platinum, gold and silver medal categories. Averaging at least 4.0 points means that these players all got recognition annually of being among the 15 best players in the game during a majority of their careers.

So there we have as close to an objective list of the best players in the NBA since 1955-56 as I can imagine.

To provide some sense of how elite this list is, consider this: Fully 18 NBA players from the post-1956 era who have been inducted in the Basketball Hall of Fame did not qualify for this list. Eighteen! That Hall of Fame list includes NBA stalwarts like Adrian Dantley, Bailey Howell, Calvin Murphy, Gail Goodrich, Lenny Wilkins, Dan Issel and Earl Monroe.

Or consider this: Since 1956, some 390 different players have qualified to play in the annual mid-season NBA All-Star game. To discount players who may have made the team on a fluke, there have been some 263 players who made the NBA All-Star game at least twice in their careers since 1956. Yet around 60 percent of those wonderful multiple All-Star players do not qualify for this list. Eight players who have made the NBA All-Star team at least seven times –  Ray Allen, James Worthy, Lenny Wilkens, Jack Sikma, JoJo White, Chris Bosh and Vince Carter – do not make the cut for this Glorious 117 list.

This is rarified air, and this is where you must go if you want to find the key to winning NBA championships. You are about to discover there is an enormous difference between having the best player on your team being led by a genuine superstar than one or two or three very good all-stars, much more than you might have imagined.

Secton B: Who are the Best Players on Championship and Contending Teams?

The first section established a list of the 117 best players in the NBA since 1955-56. This was done based upon regular season performances. Now we want to make a list of the very best players on the 58 NBA champions since 1955-56. To fill out the analysis and to see what patterns emerge we will also determine the best players on the teams that lost in the Finals and the best player on each of the two teams that lost in the conference finals every year. (In other words, the best players on each of the NBA’s “final four” teams every season.)

Finally, we will also determine the 2nd best player on the championship team every year, and the 2nd best player on the team that lost in the finals every year, to see what patterns emerge. So altogether, I am making six selections for every season since 1956-57.

I use the MVP vote standings and All-NBA team status, rather than my own opinion, to pick a winner in every case where possible. In most cases it was a no-brainer without even relying upon the MVP or All-NBA data. A few times data was not helpful and I had to use my own judgment, using team statistics for the season. There was one truly difficult decision: who was the best player on the 1990 Pistons? Isiah Thomas or Joe Dumars? In every respect they were almost identical. After consulting a few Pistons aficionados, I went with Isiah, but it was basically a coin toss. It has no bearing on the overall findings.

	Best	2nd	Best	2nd Best R-Up	ECF &
Year	Player	Best	Runner-up	(if superstar)	WCF best
13---	James	Wade	Duncan	Parker	Hibbert & M. Gasol
12---	James	Wade	Durant	Westbrook	Rondo & Parker
11---	Nowitzki	Chandler	James	Wade	Rose & Durant
10---	Bryant	Gasol	Rondo	Garnett	Howard & Nash
09---	Bryant	Gasol	Howard		James & Billups
08--	Garnett	Pierce	Bryant		Billups & Duncan
07---	Duncan	Ginobili	James		Billups & Boozer
06---	Wade	S. O’Neal	Nowitzki		Billups & Nash
05---	Duncan	Parker	B. Wallace	Billups	S. O’Neal & Nash
04---	B. Wallace	Billups	S. O’Neal	Bryant	J. O’Neal & Garnett
03---	Duncan	Robinson	Kidd		B. Wallace & Nowitzki
02---	S. O’Neal	Bryant	Kidd		Pierce & Webber
01---	S. O’Neal	Bryant	Iverson		R. Allen & Duncan
00---	S. O’Neal	Bryant	Rose		Houston & R. Wallace
99---	Duncan	Robinson	Ewing		R. Miller &  R. Wallace
98---	Jordan	Pippen	K. Malone	Stockton	R. Miller & S. O’Neal
97---	Jordan	Pippen	K. Malone	Stockton	Hardaway & Olajuwon
96---	Jordan	Pippen	Payton	Kemp	S. O’Neal & K. Malone
95---	Olajuwon	Drexler	S. O’Neal	Hardaway	R. Miller & Robinson
94---	Olajuwon	O. Thorpe	Ewing		R. Miller & K. Malone
93---	Jordan	Pippen	Barkley	K. Johnson	Ewing & Kemp
92---	Jordan	Pippen	Drexler		Price & K. Malone
91---	Jordan	Pippen	Magic		Dumars & Drexler
90---	Thomas	Dumars	Drexler		Jordan & Chambers
89---	Thomas	Dumars	Magic		Jordan & K. Johnson
88---	Magic	Scott	Thomas	Dumars	Bird & Aguirre
87---	Magic	Abdul-Jabbar	Bird	McHale	Thomas & D. Ellis
86---	Bird	McHale	Olajuwon	Sampson	Moncrief & Magic
85---	Magic	Abdul-Jabbar	Bird	McHale	M. Malone & English
84---	Bird	Parish	Magic	A-Jabbar	Moncrief & W. Davis
83---	M. Malone	Erving	Magic	A-Jabbar	Moncrief & Gervin
82---	Magic	Abdul-Jabbar	Erving	B. Jones	Bird & Gervin
81---	Bird	Parish	M. Malone		Erving & Birdsong
80---	Abdul-Jabbar	Magic	Erving	B. Jones	Bird & G. Williams
79---	D. Johnson	G. Williams	Hayes		Gervin & Westphal
78---	Hayes	Unseld	G. Williams	D. Johnson	Erving & Thompson
77---	Walton	M. Lucas	Erving	McGinniss	Malone & Abdul-Jabbar
76---	Cowens	Havlicek	Westphal		Chones & Barry
75---	Barry	Wilkes	Hayes	Unseld	Cowens & Van Lier
74---	Cowens	Havlicek	Abdul-Jabbar	Robertson	Frazier & B. Love
73---	Frazier	DeBusschere	West	Wilt C.	Cowens & Barry
72---	West	Chamberlain	Frazier	Lucas	Havlicek & A-Jabbar
71---	Abdul-Jabbar	Robertson	Monroe	Unseld	Reed & West
70---	Reed	Frazier	West	Wilt C.	A-Jabbar & Hudson
69---	Russell	Havlicek	Baylor	Wilt C.	Reed & Beatty
68---	Russell	Havlicek	Baylor	West	Wilt C. & Thurmond
67---	Chamberlain	Greer	Barry	Thurmond	Russell & Bridges
66---	Russell	S. Jones	West	Baylor	Chamberlain & Beatty
65---	Russell	S. Jones	West	Baylor	Greer & Bellamy
64---	Russell	S. Jones	Chamberlain		Robertson & Pettit
63---	Russell	Cousy	Baylor	West	Robertson & Pettit
62---	Russell	Cousy	West	Baylor	Wilt C. & B. Howell
61---	Russell	Heinsohn	Pettit	Hagan	Schayes & Baylor
60---	Russell	Cousy	Pettit	Hagan	Chamberlain & Baylor
59---	Russell	Cousy	Baylor		Schayes & Pettit
58---	Pettit	Hagan	Russell	Cousy	Arizin & Yardley
57---	Cousy	Russell	Pettit		Schayes & Lovellette
56---	Arizin	Johnston	Yardley		Schayes & Pettit

 

Now that we have determined who the best players have been on the NBA’s “final four” teams for the past 52 years we get to the fun part: seeing how many of these players rank on the super-elite list of superstars complied in part one. I hope you are sitting down.

Platinum Medal Superstars

	Best	2nd	Best	2nd Best	ECF &
	Player	Best	Runner-Up	Runner-Up	WCF Best
1. Michael Jordan	6				2
2. Bill Russell	10	1	1		1
3. K. Abdul-Jabbar	2	3	1	2	3
4. Larry Bird	3		2		3
5. LeBron James	2		2		1
6. Magic Johnson	4	1	4		1
6. Bob Pettit	1		3		4
8. David Robinson		2			1
9. Kobe Bryant	2	3	1	1
9. Tim Duncan	4		1		2
11. Jerry West	1		5	2	1
12. Wilt Chamberlain	1	1	1	3	4
13. Bob Cousy	1	4		1
13a. Bill Walton	1
Platinum Medal
Superstar totals:	38	15	21	9	23
Total Seasons	58	58	58	58	116

Gold Medal Superstars

	Best	2nd	Best	2nd Best	ECF &
	Player	Best	Runner-Up	Runner-Up	WCF Best
13. Karl Malone			2		3
14. Kevin Durant			1		1
15. Elgin Baylor			4	3	2
17. Oscar Robertson		1		1	2
18. Shaquille O’Neal	3	1	2		3
19. Dwight Howard			1		1
20. Hakeem Olajuwon	2		1		1
21. Julius Erving		1	3		2
22. Chris Paul
23. Bill Sharman*
24. Kevin Garnett	1			1	1
25. Moses Malone	1		1		2
26. Dolph Schayes*					4
27. George Gervin					3
28. Dirk Nowitzki	1		1		1
29. John Havlicek		4			1
29. Charles Barkley			1		2
31. Walt Frazier	1	1	1		1
31a. Sidney Moncrief					3
31b. Maurice Stokes
Gold Medal
Superstar totals:	9	8	18	5	33
Total Seasons	58	58	58	58	116

Silver Medal Superstars

	Best	2nd	Best	2nd Best	ECF &
	Player	Best	Runner-Up	Runner-Up	WCF Best
32. John Stockton				2
33. Gary Payton			1
34. Dwyane Wade	1	2		1
35. Tracy McGrady
36. Steve Nash					3
36. Patrick Ewing			2		1
38. Scottie Pippen		6
39. Rick Barry	1		1		2
40. Paul Arizin*	1				1
40. Derrick Rose					1
42. Jason Kidd			2
43. Nate Archibald
44. Dave Cowens	2				2
45. Bob McAdoo
46. Elvin Hayes	1		2
47. Grant Hill
48. Allen Iverson			1
49. Isiah Thomas	2		1		1
50. Ben Wallace	1		1		1
51. Alonzo Mourning
62. Sam Jones		3
53. Dominique Wilkins
54. Dennis Rodman
55. Spencer Haywood*
56. Amare Stoudemire
57. Billy Cunningham
58. Blake Griffin
58a. Willis Reed	1				2
58b. George Yardley			1		1
58c. David Thompson					1
58d. Gus Johnson
58e. Neil Johnston		1
58g. Paul Westphal			1		1
58f. Mark Price					1
Silver Medal
Superstar totals:	10	12	13	1	18
Total Seasons	58	58	58	57	116

 

Bronze Medal Superstars

	Best	2nd	Best	2nd Best	ECF &
	Player	Best	Runner-Up	Runner-Up	WCF Best
59. Dennis Johnson	1				1
60. Rajon Rondo			1		1
61. Pete Maravich
62. Chris Webber					1
62. Clyde Drexler		1	2		1
64. Carmelo Anthony
64. Jerry Lucas				1
66. Russell Westbrook				1
67. Kevin McHale		1		2
68. Tim Hardaway					1
69. Dave Bing
70. Alex English					1
70. Bernard King
72. Norm Van Lier					1
72. Nate Thurmond					1
74. Tony Parker		1		1
74. Anfernee Hardaway				1
74. Tommy Heinsohn		1
77. Marques Johnson
78. Dikembe Mutombo
79. Bobby Jones				2
79. Robert Parish		2
81. Hal Greer		1			1
81. Jack Twyman
81. Richie Guerin
84. Shawn Kemp				1	1
85. Kevin Love
86. Manu Ginobili		1
86. Chauncey Billups		1		1	4
86. Joe Dumars		2		1	1
86. Wes Unseld		1		2
86. Dave DeBusschere		1
86. Manu Ginobili		1
92. Bob Lanier
93. Paul Pierce		1			2
94. Chris Mullin
95. Gus Williams		1	1		1
95a. Kevin Johnson				1	1
95b. Cliff Hagan		1		2
95c. George McGinnis				1
95d. Yao Ming
95e.  M.R. Richardson
95f.  Gilbert Arenas
95g. Gene Shue
95h. Ralph Sampson				1
95i.  Brandon Roy
95j.  Jermaine O’Neal					1
95k. Bob Love					1
95l.  Artis Gilmore
Bronze Medal
Superstar totals:	1	17	4	20	20
Total Seasons	58	58	58	58	116

	Best	2nd	Best	2nd Best	ECF &
	Player	Best	Runner-Up	Runner-Up	WCF Best
Platinum	38	15	21	9	23
Gold	9	8	18	5	33
Silver	10	12	13	1	18
Bronze	1	17	4	20	20
Combined
Superstar
Totals:	58	52	56	35	94
Total Seasons	58	58	58	58	116
All Other NBA
Players
Totals:	0	6	2	23	22
Total Seasons	58	58	58	58	116

 

Now ponder this above chart for a few moments. The implications are so striking, they approach being self-evident. Even if one quibbles with the precise accuracy of the superstar list I have complied, this is nowhere near the gray area; the results are striking, overwhelming, and undeniable. 

For starters: every single NBA champion has been led by a player on this list. So if your team does not have as its best player one of these guys, or someone likely to get on the list, your chances are virtually nil.

It gets worse, or better, depending if your team has one of these guys. It is not just about winning titles; it is about getting within sniffing distance of winning titles.  All but one of the losers in the NBA Finals since 1955-56 have featured one of these superstars. (The 1970 Bullets, who lost in the Finals, had superstar Wes Unseld as their 2^nd best player, and non-superstar Earl Monroe as their best player.) The exception? The 2000 Pacers. So dig this: only one of the 116 teams that have played in the NBA Finals did not have a player from the superstar list in his functional prime. There is more: Eighty percent of the 116 teams that lost in the conference finals over the past 57 years – the first two losers in the NBA’s “final four” so to speak – were led by players from this list.

And that barely begins to capture was a gated community NBA championships live in. The closer to the top of the superstar 95 list, the more likely a player is to being the best player on a championship team. The closer to the bottom of this list of superstars, the more likely the player is on the outside looking in. Fully 107 of the 116 Finals teams had at least a qualifying silver medal superstar as their best player; i.e. basically an all-time top 60 player. And if a team does not have a player is his prime from this list, or soon to be on this list, they have but a slim chance to even make the conference finals, let alone dream about playing in the finals or winning a title.

It is a merciless system weighted toward the superstar.

It is not just having a platinum or gold superstar that matters, it is having additional superstars that separates the champions from the pretenders. Now let’s look at how many superstars have been on each NBA championship team or runner-up. These are all active superstars, meaning they have played qualifying minutes and are not over-age; hence Gary Payton’s year with the Heat in 2006 does not count, nor does Manu Ginobili’s in 2013 or Jason Kidd’s in 2011, nor Kareem’s seasons in 1987 and 1988.

P= Platinum

G= Gold

S= Silver

B= Bronze

T= Total

 

Year	Champion	P—G—S—B—T	Runner-Up	P—G—S—B—T
2013	Heat	1—0—1—0—2	Spurs	1—0—0—1—2
2012	Heat	1—0—1—0—2	Thunder	0—1—0—1—2
2011	Mavericks	0—1—0—0—1	Heat	1—0—1—0—2
2010	Lakers	1—0—0—0—1	Celtics	0—1—0—2—3
2009	Lakers	1—0—0—0—1	Magic	0—1—0—0—1
2008	Celtics	0—1—0—2—3	Lakers	1—0—0—0—1
2007	Spurs	1—0—0—2—3	Cavaliers	1—0—0—0—1
2006	Heat	0—1—1—0—2	Mavericks	0—1—0—0—1
2005	Spurs	1—0—0—2—3	Pistons	0—0—1—1—2
2004	Pistons	0—0—1—1—2	Lakers	1—1—1—0—3
2003	Spurs	1—0—0—1—2	Nets	0—0—1—0—1
2002	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2	Nets	0—0—1—0—1
2001	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2	Sixers	0—0—1—0—1
2000	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2	Pacers	0—0—0—0—0
1999	Spurs	2—0—0—0—2	Knicks	0—0—1—0—1
1998	Bulls	1—0—1—0—2	Jazz	0—1—1—0—2
1997	Bulls	1—0—2—0—3	Jazz	0—1—1—0—2
1996	Bulls	1—0—2—0—3	Sonics	0—0—1—1—2
1995	Rockets	0—1—0—1—2	Magic	0—1—0—1—2
1994	Rockets	0—1—0—0—1	Knicks	0—0—1—0—1
1993	Bulls	1—0—1—0—2	Suns	0—1—0—1—2
1992	Bulls	1—0—1—0—2	Blazers	0—0—0—1—1
1991	Bulls	1—0—1—0—2	Lakers	1—0—0—0—1
1990	Pistons	0—0—2—1—3	Blazers	0—0—0—1—1
1989	Pistons	0—0—2—1—3	Lakers          1—0—0—0—1
1988	Lakers	1—0—0—0—1	Pistons	0—0—2—1—3
1987	Lakers	1—0—0—0—1	Celtics	1—0—0—3—4
1986	Celtics	1—0—0—3—4	Rockets	0—1—0—1—2
1985	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2	Celtics	1—0—0—3—4
1984	Celtics	1—0—0—3—4	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2
1983	Sixers	0—2—0—1—3	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2
1982	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2	Sixers	0—1—0—1—2
1981	Celtics	1—0—1—2—4	Rockets	0—1—0—0—1
1980	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2	Sixers	0—1—0—1—2
1979	Sonics	0—0—0—2—2	Bullets	0—0—1—1—2
1978	Bullets	0—0—1—1—2	Sonics	0—0—0—2—2
1977	Blazers	1—0—0—0—1	Sixers	0—1—0—1—2
1976	Celtics	0—1—1—0—2	Suns	0—0—1—0—1
1975	Warriors	0—0—1—0—1	Bullets	0—0—1—1—2
1974	Celtics	0—1—1—0—2	Bucks	1—1—0—0—2
1973	Knicks	0—1—1—1—3	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2
1972	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2	Knicks	0—1—1—1—3
1971	Bucks	1—1—0—0—2	Bullets	0—0—0—1—1
1970	Knicks	0—1—1—1—3	Lakers	2—0—0—0—2
1969	Celtics	1—1—0—0—2	Lakers	2—1—0—0—3
1968	Celtics	1—1—1—0—3	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2
1967	Sixers	1—0—2—0—3	Warriors	0—0—1—1—2
1966	Celtics	1—1—1—0—3	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2
1965	Celtics	1—1—1—0—3	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2
1964	Celtics	1—1—1—1—4	Warriors	1—0—0—1—2
1963	Celtics	2—1—1—1—5	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2
1962	Celtics	2—0—1—1—4	Lakers	1—1—0—0—2
1961	Celtics	2—0—1—1—4	Hawks	1—0—1—0—2
1960	Celtics	2—1—0—2—5	Hawks	1—0—1—0—2
1959	Celtics	2—1—0—1—4	Lakers	0—1—0—0—1
1958	Hawks	1—0—1—0—2	Celtics	2—1—0—1—4
1957	Celtics	2—1—0—1—4	Hawks	1—0—1—0—2

The seven teams that have won titles without a platinum or gold medal superstar are often called “ensemble” teams because they had a cast where the third or fourth player was not that much worse than the first or second player.

Maybe the vast majority of teams that do not have a top-30 all-time player in his prime on their roster can aspire to developing an “ensemble team,” right? Then, you have a shot. Maybe there is hope for the two dozen or so NBA teams that do not have James, Durant, Howard or Paul—or Bryant, Nowitzki, or Duncan (if still in their primes). Or the teams led by the few young players may vault into this group in the next few years, from the likes of Rose, Griffin, Westbrook, and maybe Anthony Davis or Kyrie Irving.

Well, not really. The “ensemble” option is almost as difficult as having a platinum or gold caliber superstar.

One of the seven “ensemble” champions was led by Rick Barry, and had he spent the five seasons he was out of the NBA pursuing an ABA career from age 23 to age 28 he would certainly be a top-30 gold medal player. So toss that one out.

Two of remaining seven “ensemble” champions—the legendary Bad Boy Pistons of 1989 and 1990—had two silver and one bronze superstar on them. There are no present NBA teams that have two silver and one bronze superstar in their primes on their roster. No one is close. Those were truly great teams.

The four remaining “ensemble” champions each had two silver or bronze superstars in their prime on their rosters. How may present NBA teams even meet that standard to try to make it as an “ensemble” champion? The Knicks, if Stoudemire is healthy, would be the only one that might then challenge the platinum and gold superstar led teams. And as one who has seen a lot of Knicks basketball in recent years, I can tell you that this Knicks team only wins an NBA title in 2014 or 2015 if all of the legitimate contenders with a gold or platinum superstar falter, through injuries or dissension.

And that is how “ensemble” teams generally win NBA titles: they get through in flukes like the 2004 Pistons when the superior Lakers imploded or like the Bullets and Sonics in the late 70s when the league was “between” superstars.

And here is another factor the above data indicates that doubles the height of the walls around the gated community where NBA championship contenders reside: it is not just having a platinum or gold superstar that matters. That is necessary but not sufficient. A champion generally requires at least one or two more superstars from this list to contend and to win.

Most championship teams have at least two players from the glorious 95 list on their roster. (The dynasty Celtics of the 60s had as many as five in a single season—with two platinum stars—topped off by Bill Russell. No wonder they could vanquish a Lakers team with platinum and gold medal superstars Jerry West and Elgin Baylor and, later, Wilt Chamberlain. If Bill Russell had never been born, those Laker teams probably would have won five or six titles in the 60s.) It is striking how many teams have two superstars of at least silver status.

If you are a fan of a team with a platinum of gold superstar in his prime, life is good. It is very good, especially if your team has at least one other superstar in his prime on the roster.

The vast majority of NBA teams have no superstars at all on their roster. Is their future is to play the hapless Washington Generals for the next generation of superstar-led teams? Maybe hope to get lucky once or twice a decade and get a couple of rounds into the playoffs before their inevitable demise? Fill their fanbase with a lot of propaganda about how they just need another piece and some more experience to win a flag?  Probably. But smart GMs understand the superstar thesis and take steps to increase their odds dramatically. We will discuss those teams and those measures in part two.