The middle of the Western Conference might be the most interesting storyline of the regular season. Six teams -- the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Memphis Grizzlies, Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors -- seem to have separated themselves from the pack, leaving only two playoff spots available. A postseason appearance is particularly important for the Dallas Mavericks, Portland Trail Blazers and Minnesota Timberwolves, three franchises trying to keep an All-Star power forward in town. Barring injuries to a top team, there won’t be lifeboats for all of them.
Dirk Nowitzki, LaMarcus Aldridge and Kevin Love are too good to be annually missing the playoffs. Last season, injuries were the culprit for Nowitzki and Love, as their teams fell apart without them. Aldridge, meanwhile, was a good soldier on a team bringing along two lottery picks. As they move closer to the end of their contracts, the stakes are getting higher. With All-Stars clustering together around the NBA, they are three of the biggest remaining pieces on the board.
Of the three, Nowitzki seems the least likely to leave. A 35-year-old who has spent 15 wildly successful seasons with the Mavs, he has deep roots in Dallas. Like Kobe Bryant and Tim Duncan, he is one of the last remnants of an increasingly distant age, when great players spent their entire career with the franchise that drafted them. Dirk, entering the last year of a four-year extension he signed in 2010, has given no indication that he is considering leaving.
However, while the Mavs won a title in 2011, not much has gone right since. Instead of re-signing Tyson Chandler, Mark Cuban made a calculated decision to embrace mediocrity, in order to create the cap space to sign another star. Unfortunately, without any type of interior defense, Dallas didn’t win enough to be an attractive destination in free agency. They were forced to wade through the bargain bin, signing three new starters in 2012 and again in 2013.
This year’s bunch -- Jose Calderon, Monta Ellis and Sam Dalembert -- probably aren’t saviors. In the last two seasons, they played for five different teams. If you squint hard enough, you can see a Mavs' team that spreads the floor and scores at a high enough rate to overcome a lack of defensive-minded players. However, if they miss the playoffs for the second straight season, Dirk will have a tough decision. Does he really want to spend his late 30’s fighting for a No. 8 seed?
Love has known nothing else in the NBA. Minnesota has the longest playoff-drought in the league, a streak that goes back to 2004, four seasons before Love was drafted. The Wolves blew multiple chances to draft another elite player in that time, squandering top-6 picks on Derrick Williams, Wes Johnson and Johnny Flynn. All that losing has allowed them to acquire some talent almost by default, with Ricky Rubio and Nikola Pekovic emerging as building blocks.
Like Dallas, Minnesota will be depending on their offense to make the playoffs. Replacing Andrei Kirilenko with Kevin Martin upgraded their three-point shooting at a significant cost to their defense. Neither Love nor Pekovic is much of a rim protector, leaving the Wolves with little margin for error on that end of the floor. Entering his sixth season in the NBA, Love is ready to win now. In 2015, he can opt-out of his contract and become an unrestricted free agent.
The rumors are already swirling around Aldridge, who had to deny a report that he requested a trade over the summer. Drafted in 2006, he has seen the entirety of an NBA life-cycle in Portland, from up-and-comer to playoff contender and lottery dweller. At the age of 28, Aldridge doesn’t have time for another rebuilding project. If the Blazers haven’t turned the corner by the time he enters unrestricted free agency in 2015, it’s hard to see him staying in town.
Portland won 33 games in 2013, finishing in 11th place, 12 games out of the playoffs. They should be improved this season, particularly on their bench, which was one of the worst in the NBA. On the other hand, they haven’t addressed the lack of high-level talent around Aldridge in the starting line-up. The Blazers will need Damian Lillard and Nic Batum to continue improving; Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez are near their ceilings as players.
Of course, even if they make the playoffs, there is no guarantee that the Wolves, Blazers and Mavs keep their franchise player. Losing in the first round, which looks like the ceiling for all three teams, traditionally has not been enough to keep a star in town. They would have to spin it as the first step in a longer process, using that momentum to make moves in 2014. In contrast, there are teams out there who could offer these guys the chance to be the final piece of the puzzle.
The most obvious is the Rockets, who just lured Dwight Howard away from the Lakers. With Howard and James Harden locked into long-term deals, Houston should be a title contender for the better part of the next decade. Going forward, a power forward who could stretch the floor is a perfect fit on a team that has embraced 4-out basketball. There’s no way to guard a Howard/Harden pick-and-roll and stay at home on an elite shooting big man.
If they are willing to spend the money, the Bulls are an intriguing landing spot as well. With Luol Deng coming off the books, amnestying Carlos Boozer would create enough cap space for a max contract. Like the Rockets, the Bulls have an All-NBA guard (Derrick Rose) and a defensive anchor (Joakim Noah) who would fit well with a jump-shooting power forward. Another playoff loss to the Heat could force their hand, in terms of being more aggressive with their roster.
Next summer, both teams could make a run at Dirk or tempt Portland and Minnesota with a trade. The Rockets could offer some combination of Omer Asik, Chandler Parsons, Terrence Jones, Jeremy Lin, Donatas Motiejunas and Patrick Beverley. The Bulls could counter with a mix of Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic (widely seen as the best young player in Europe) and a future first from the Charlotte Bobcats/Hornets. Either deal would be better than losing a star for nothing.
That type of trade would swing the balance of power in the NBA. Look no further than Chris Bosh, an All-Star power forward who never won a playoff series in seven seasons with the Raptors. In three seasons with Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, he has two rings. If Dirk, Love or Aldridge want to play in June, all they have to do is ask. At this time next year, at least one of them will be on a new team. If that team has two other All-Stars, they could be a dynasty.
