Will Michigan St. play faster this season?
Luke Winn of Sports Illustrated has been emphasizing that through the first few games of the year, the Michigan St. Spartans have a lot more fast-break baskets than in recent seasons. And as I watched the Spartans’ Denzel Valentine leak out for a transition dunk to seal the win against Oklahoma, I found myself wondering whether Winn is right. Will the Spartans really be able to keep up this torrid pace of attacking in transition?
The reason I am doubtful is that I feel like Michigan St. tricks me every season. The Spartans always play one or two really fast-paced games early in the year (usually in a Feast Week Tournament), and then conference play rolls along and that comes to an end. Here are the Spartans raw tempo numbers (possessions per game), broken down by non-conference, conference, and NCAA tournament games. Every single year there is a huge drop-off in pace in Big Ten play:
|
Year |
Non-Conf |
Conf |
Tourn. |
|
2003 |
67.8 |
63.8 |
65.0 |
|
2004 |
68.4 |
61.1 |
71.0 |
|
2005 |
70.1 |
64.0 |
71.0 |
|
2006 |
68.5 |
64.2 |
66.0 |
|
2007 |
62.9 |
59.4 |
60.5 |
|
2008 |
67.1 |
62.6 |
64.0 |
|
2009 |
70.8 |
63.7 |
67.8 |
|
2010 |
71.5 |
63.5 |
62.2 |
|
2011 |
72.0 |
62.1 |
74.0 |
|
2012 |
70.0 |
62.6 |
63.0 |
|
2013 |
67.0 |
63.4 |
64.0 |
In fact, looking at teams in the former Power 6 conferences over the last 11 years, only two teams have slowed down more in conference play than the Spartans.
|
Team |
Nov & Dec |
Rest of Year |
Change |
|
Miami FL |
72.8 |
66.7 |
-6.1 |
|
Indiana |
69.4 |
63.5 |
-5.9 |
|
Michigan St. |
68.5 |
63.2 |
-5.3 |
|
Illinois |
68.0 |
62.7 |
-5.3 |
|
Oregon |
71.8 |
66.5 |
-5.3 |
|
Minnesota |
68.8 |
63.9 |
-5.0 |
|
Texas |
71.7 |
66.8 |
-4.9 |
|
Tennessee |
71.9 |
67.2 |
-4.8 |
|
Texas Tech |
72.4 |
67.7 |
-4.7 |
|
Syracuse |
71.9 |
67.5 |
-4.4 |
Notably, there are four Big Ten teams on this list. As Tom Crean has found out at Indiana, even if you want to run in the Big Ten, you are fighting an uphill battle. Surprisingly, almost all the power conference teams tend to have a slower pace in conference play. But the Big Ten seems to slow down more than the other conferences:
|
Pace |
Nov & Dec |
Rest of Year |
Change |
|
ACC |
70.1 |
68.1 |
-2.0 |
|
Pac-10/12 |
68.6 |
66.3 |
-2.2 |
|
BE |
68.3 |
65.8 |
-2.5 |
|
Big 12 |
69.7 |
66.9 |
-2.8 |
|
SEC |
69.3 |
66.3 |
-3.0 |
|
Big 10 |
66.9 |
62.7 |
-4.2 |
Part of that is the coaches. And in that regard, I am optimistic for 2014. Chris Collins and Richard Pitino should unambiguously upgrade the tempo at Northwestern and Minnesota. And even Bo Ryan’s Wisconsin team seems to be playing at a faster pace this year.
And yet, there is part of me that is still skeptical. And that is because of quotes like this one by Bo Ryan in an interview with John Gasaway this preseason. In this quote, Bo Ryan is emphasizing how important it is that his teams get back and prevent transition baskets. Ryan, “Is it just two or three offensive rebounds that I'm not getting while I'm holding the other team to zero fast-break points? I'll take that any day. I've felt that way ever since I started coaching.”
For as long as I have been watching, that has been the mentality in the Big Ten. If a player doesn’t get back and stop a transition bucket, he will quickly find himself glued to the bench.
But we have seen that because of experience or style-of-play issues, teams in other conferences are far less concerned about giving up transition baskets. Kentucky was inexperienced, and Michigan St. used that against them. Lon Kruger is using a gambling defense this year, and Michigan St. pounced.
In my opinion, Tom Izzo is a brilliant coach who is prepared to take advantage of any margin that is available in a basketball game. But given the lack of transition opportunities in the Big Ten, I remain skeptical that what we have seen in the early season will hold up over the full season.
Speaking of transition baskets…
North Carolina vs Louisville
On paper, this should have been an intriguing match-up. North Carolina head coach Roy Williams loves to attack in transition. Louisville head coach Rick Pitino loves to pressure on defense. On the one hand, North Carolina should be the ideal team to attack Louisville’s press and beat it for easy baskets. On the other hand, with North Carolina’s guard depth limited by early season suspensions, it was equally possible that North Carolina’s guards would be overwhelmed by Louisville’s pressure.
But after North Carolina struggled against Holy Cross and lost to Belmont, the consensus was that Louisville was simply the better team. Louisville had more talent and more experience, and this game was no longer worth the price of admission.
But that was wrong and North Carolina freshmen center Kennedy Meeks provided the key difference in this clash of styles. Meeks finished with 7 assists in the game and his ability to throw long outlet passes over the Louisville defense gave North Carolina a number of unexpected transition baskets.
There were other factors in the game. Louisville was truly limited in the paint offensively with Montrezl Harrell fouling out early. North Carolina’s Brice Johnson played well. And North Carolina’s Marcus Paige held his own scoring with Louisville’s Russ Smith. But in the end, North Carolina’s transition passing from unexpected players was the difference.
Early Surprises
It is too early to draw too many conclusions, but a few teams have performed significantly better or worse than what I expected in the preseason. Let’s break it down:
Washington
Preseason Projection: NCAA Bubble Team
Current Performance: No Postseason
What explains the difference? Early season injuries to Desmond Simmons and Jernard Jerrau have left Washington with a much shorter than expected lineup. The result has been horrific interior defense. Washington is allowing opponents to make 57% of their 2’s on the year. Washington also got killed on the defensive boards against Indiana.
Is the change permanent? Not necessarily. Simmons has had a knee injury, but he could still return for conference play. Also, Lorenzo Romar was not necessarily planning to go with a smaller 4-guard lineup in the preseason and it looks a lot like Washington has not figured out how to defend with this lineup yet. Things should get better. But after allowing over 1.33 points per possession in both games in New York, they have to.
Iowa St.
Preseason Projection: NIT
Current Performance: Team Fighting for Protected Seed
What explains the difference? With two thirds of Iowa St.’s lineup graduating, this seemed like a rebuilding year. After all, Fred Hoiberg was only bringing in one key transfer in DeAndre Kane. It was impressive enough for Hoiberg to get a bunch of experienced D1 transfers to gel the last two seasons. But getting JUCO and freshmen recruits to play at a high level right away seemed highly unlikely. And yet Iowa St. has beaten Michigan at home and won at BYU.
Fred Hoiberg has basically done it by utilizing a short rotation against quality opponents. Returners George Niang, Melvin Ejim, and transfer Kane have all increased their percentage of possessions used. But it still would not work without some new faces filling roles. The two key ones have been JUCO Top 100 recruit Dustin Hogue and freshmen Top 100 recruit Matt Thomas.
JUCO Top 100 recruits are lottery tickets. Some like Oklahoma St.’s Gary Gaskins are finding themselves glued to the bench. But not Hogue. Meanwhile, only freshmen in the Top 30 can really be counted on to be instant impact recruits. But Thomas, ranked 52nd nationally, is playing well.
Finally, the biggest surprise is that Naz Long has emerged as a dominant three point shooter. Long made only 28% of his threes last year and he was very lightly recruited out of high school.
Is the change permanent? In this case, I think it might be. While lots of JUCO Top 100 recruits and freshmen Top 100 recruits are busts, if players are going to break out, they usually play well early. And Thomas and Hogue have more than held their own.
Duke
Preseason Projection: Title Contender
Current Performance: Not Going to Make Final Four
What explains the difference? Duke is going to win a ton of games this year. They might even win the ACC. But I think Duke’s interior defense is an Achilles heel that they cannot overcome. At some point prior to the Final Four, they are going to run into a team that can get a few stops, and Duke’s lack of interior defense is going to send them home.
Is the change permanent? I was worried when a young Kansas team exploited Duke inside. But I thought that was Bill Self magic in bringing Perry Ellis along. But after Duke allowed Vermont to make 31 of 41 two pointers on Sunday, I am now convinced that this is a major problem. And I don’t think this is fixable given Duke’s personnel.
Oklahoma
Preseason Projection: NIT
Current Performance: NCAA Bubble Team
What explains the difference? When Amath M’Baye unexpectedly declared for the draft, it meant Oklahoma had to rebuild its frontcourt rotation from scratch. That made this seem like a rebuilding year, but two things have worked in Oklahoma’s favor.
First, Ryan Spangler has been a rebounding machine early in the season. The transfer had great per minute rebounding stats at Gonzaga, but it was not clear whether those stats would hold up with Spangler playing significantly more minutes. For Spangler, not only have they held up, but with the exception of the Michigan St. game, Spangler has stayed out of foul trouble.
The other big thing that has made up for Oklahoma’s lack of interior size is that the team has done a fantastic job creating a frenetic atmosphere and forcing teams to make bad decisions. The sequence at the end of the Seton Hall game, where Oklahoma scored 7 points to overcome a 6 point deficit in the final 45 seconds was brilliant basketball. But the best part of the comeback was this. Once Oklahoma took a one point lead, they didn’t suddenly drop back and allow Seton Hall to get a good look at a game-winning shot. Instead Oklahoma kept the ball-pressure on, and forced Seton Hall into an extremely low percentage look. I cannot tell you how many teams would have laid back after taking the lead. But Lon Kruger’s team had Seton Hall rattled, and did not let up.
Is the change permanent? Oklahoma allowed Seton Hall to go on a 45-25 run in the middle of the game and I am still concerned about the Sooners defense in the half-court. Their other nice win was over an Alabama team with its own front-court issues. Teams like Baylor and Kansas will test Lon Kruger’s squad to a much larger degree. Still, this no longer looks like a rebuilding season.
Florida St.
Preseason Projection: NIT
Current Performance: NCAA Tournament
What explains the difference? Florida St. was a bad team last year and after every recruiting battle went the wrong way (Andrew Wiggins) or ended with the player ineligible (Xavier Rathan-Mayes), there just was not a lot of reason to think Florida St. would be in the mix for the NCAA tournament. But they dismantled VCU by 30 points, and lost in OT to Michigan in Puerto Rico.
Is the change permanent? Leonard Hamilton had a Top 15 defense four years in a row and his defense completely disappeared last year. But as the Seminoles showed in holding VCU to an eFG% of 33%, and as Florida St. showed with its great offensive rebounds late against Northeastern, the team’s toughness is back. The Seminoles will probably still finish closer to the bubble rather than safely in the field, but as long as the defense is back, there is no reason this team cannot compete for the top half of the ACC.
What was in the water in Puerto Rico?
Charlotte PG Pierra Henry was having a terrible game. He was 4 of 15 from the floor, he had 3 assists and 4 turnovers, and Charlotte’s offense was sputtering. Michigan had just stormed back from a double digit deficit to take a 1 point lead. But then Henry started making plays again. He hit Ben Cherry for an open three. He knifed into the lane and got the ball to Willie Clayton for a clean inside look. Then he hit a jumper of his own. And yet Michigan would not go away. With 8 seconds left the game was tied.
At this point Charlotte’s Terrence Williams was also 2 for 8 in the game. Williams caught the ball along the baseline with time running out and Williams completely air-balled the basket. But Williams didn’t panic. He ran to the other side of the hoop, collected his own miss, and put the shot back up for the game-winner.
Somehow, for two players who were ice-cold to make the winning plays, made perfect sense. Because the tournament in Puerto Rico didn’t make any sense.
-Charlotte, the presumed 6th best team in this field, won the tournament.
-VCU, ranked in the Top 10 nationally, forced 25 turnovers in one game and 26 turnovers in another and lost both.
-Florida St., which pummeled VCU, needed a buzzer beater to beat Northeastern.
-Michigan, which was a preseason Top 15 team, needed a huge rally and OT to beat Florida St. and lost to Charlotte.
-Meanwhile, Georgetown lost to Northeastern. And then the Hoyas crushed Kansas St. and won an ugly whistle-prone game against VCU.
Bullets
-UConn won the 2K Sports Classic, but won the two games by a total margin of 3 points. That is what veteran teams are expected to do early in the year. But the statistical oddities in the two wins were amazing. First UConn had just 3 turnovers against Boston College. Then Shabazz Napier put UConn on his back against Indiana. Napier was 10 of 14 in the game while the rest of his teammates were just 11 of 39. But it wasn’t just Napier’s overall stat-line, it was the timing of his shots. When Indiana went on a scoring binge late in the game, Napier answered every big shot.
-UCLA’s Travis Wear returned after his emergency appendectomy. The Bruins still haven’t faced any real tests yet on the basketball court, but the early returns suggest that Steve Alford is finding better ways to take advantage of Kyle Anderson’s passing ability. Anderson is averaging 8 assists per game through the first 5 games.
-I’ve never seen body language change more than it did for Providence against Vanderbilt. From the 16 minute mark to the 10 minute mark of the second half, Providence missed 6 lay-ups around the basket. They seemingly could not score over Vanderbilt’s tall interior players. At a timeout, the players walked to the bench with a look of disgust, like “How do we score on these guys?” But suddenly a flip switched. The offense started clicking and Providence went on a 17-0 run and ended the game on a 27-4 run in the come from behind win.
Harvard Watch Week 3
Continuing my weekly feature on an Ivy League team on the edge of the Top 25:
This week Harvard went on the road for their biggest test to date, at another near-Top 25 team Colorado. In the early going Harvard shot the ball extremely well. At one point forward Kyle Casey even made a three pointer to beat the buzzer and avoid a shot-clock violation.
Then near the 13 minute mark of the first half, we got a nice look at the highest ranked recruit in Harvard history, freshmen forward Zeno Edosomwan. Edosomwan came in, backed Colorado’s Josh Scott down off the dribble, and got a nice inside basket. But Tommy Amaker has been very cautious with Edosomwan’s minutes until he gets more experience, and Edosomwan spent most of the rest of the game on the bench.
People sometimes talk about how rare it is for Harvard to win the way they are winning, because they don’t have one transcendent star. It is one thing for a small conference school to find a Larry Bird-type player and ride him to glory. But Harvard is winning with balance. And at the end of the first half, we really saw how Harvard’s success is based on five players hustling at once.
Probably the perfect sequence came at the 5:15 mark of the first half. Harvard’s PG Siyani Chambers drove into the lane, and three point gunner Laurent Rivard followed behind him on the secondary break. Chambers kicked it back to Rivard for a wide open three at the top of the key. But the shot was off. Wesley Saunders crashed the boards and Harvard reset. Steve Moundou-Missi probed the defense for a driving angle, then Saunders probed, and then Rivard caught the ball in the corner. With Colorado playing Rivard to prevent the three, he cut baseline and the defense collapsed into the paint. Rivard then kicked the ball out to Brandyn Curry (who was back after missing the last 3 games with an injury), and Curry nailed a wide open three pointer. All five players touched the ball in this sequence and when five players are playing well together, it is beautiful basketball.
Unfortunately for the Crimson, the second half was not pretty. Colorado switched on screens on defense, Colorado’s length denied Harvard post touches, and Harvard struggled to match up with Wesley Gordon (who dominated on the offensive glass). Eventually Colorado roared back to take the lead.
Harvard’s Chambers had one unbelievable coast-to-coast basket in transition. And Moundou-Missi had a beautiful spinning post move after Tommy Amaker drew up a play out of a timeout. But for the most part, Colorado showed that as talented and experienced as Harvard is, Colorado has more athleticism. In the end Colorado was the team to pick up the quality win. Harvard now heads to Alaska for the Great Alaska Shootout.