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The Top 100 Freshmen

On a weekend when Andrew Wiggins was 4 of 14 from the floor and Kansas couldn’t get Joel Embiid the ball in scoring position, the only Kansas freshman to get hot was Frank Mason. Mason isn’t going to be confused with an NBA lottery pick any time soon. But his performance does make it seem like it might be a good time to look at how ALL the elite recruits are doing this year, not just those at the top. The following tables show the RSCI Top 100 freshmen and how they are performing based on standard metrics.

Rnk = Consensus recruiting rank

PPG = Points per game

Min Pct = Percentage of minutes on season

Poss Pct = Aggressiveness, percentage of possessions used

ORtg = Points created per 100 possessions

OR Pct = Offensive rebounding percentage

DR Pct = Defensive rebounding percentage

Ast Pct = Assist rate

One thing we should be concerned about when looking at the numbers is how unequal the schedules have been to this point. And that is a reason that I would put more stock in things like minutes and aggressiveness than true efficiency at this point. But for what it is worth, on average Kansas, Xavier, Wisconsin, and Tennessee have played relatively tough defenses.  And on average TCU, Indiana, UNLV, Arkansas, Illinois, UCLA, Notre Dame, West Virginia, Purdue, Washington, California, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati have played weaker defenses. Almost everyone’s efficiency will fall in conference play, but this will be particularly true for the players on teams in that second group.

Rnk	Player	Team	PPG	Min Pct	Poss Pct	ORtg	OR Pct	DR Pct	Ast Pct
1	Andrew Wiggins	Kansas	15.8	79	24	112	7	13	9
2	Julius Randle	Kentucky	18.1	74	30	115	14	23	12
3	Jabari Parker	Duke	20.4	75	31	115	7	23	12
4	Aaron Gordon	Arizona	12.4	76	23	107	11	19	9
5	Andrew Harrison	Kentucky	11.2	73	22	107	2	6	20
6	Aaron Harrison	Kentucky	14.7	75	22	119	2	9	15
8	Noah Vonleh	Indiana	11.8	57	24	113	13	29	5
9	James Young	Kentucky	13.8	78	22	111	4	9	11
9	Dakari Johnson	Kentucky	3.6	23	20	110	19	16	3

-The knock on Andrew Wiggins so far has been his aggressiveness. While Julius Randle and Jabari Parker have usage rates over 30%, Wiggins usage is at 24%.

-Dakari Johnson is really being hurt by Kentucky’s front court depth. He is playing less than 25% of Kentucky’s minutes at this point. That’s a very low figure for a player that many recruiting services had in the Top 10.

Rnk	Player	Team	PPG	Min Pct	Poss Pct	ORtg	OR Pct	DR Pct	Ast Pct
11	Kasey Hill	Florida	7.6	41	20	106	1	8	27
12	Jarell Martin	LSU	8.0	43	20	96	6	11	5
13	Wayne Selden	Kansas	8.5	65	19	97	5	8	15
14	Bobby Portis	Arkansas	12.8	61	21	131	11	16	13
14	Isaiah Hicks	N. Carolina	1.9	22	12	103	8	11	5
16	R. Hollis-Jefferson	Arizona	8.4	58	19	124	11	14	12
16	Joel Embiid	Kansas	10.8	54	23	120	13	24	11
18	Marcus Lee	Kentucky	3.6	15	18	134	15	14	3
20	Austin Nichols	Memphis	8.5	53	17	108	7	14	2
20	Jabari Bird	California	11.3	61	22	111	4	10	9

-Florida’s Kasey Hill has missed time due to injuries, Jarell Martin was out at the start of the season, and Kansas’ schedule has been brutal, giving Wayne Selden little time to gain confidence. Still, the drop-off from the Top 10 to the next 10 is rather remarkable.

-Though inflated by the weak set of defenses faced so far, no one has talked much about Bobby Portis’ first year efficiency. He was a perfect 8 for 8 from the floor against his final non-conference cupcake on Saturday.

-It is amazing how much a player’s struggle can be about a lack of opportunity. Isaiah Hicks has been outplayed by fellow UNC bench paint players Kennedy Meeks and Brice Johnson and even after Joel James went down, he has struggled to get enough minutes to show his ability. Similarly Marcus Lee is buried on the Kentucky bench.

-Joel Embiid has the most blocks of any Top 20 player. Embiid’s rise continues to amaze me. As they noted again during Sunday’s telecast, he has only been playing organized basketball for three years. He was a late riser, and some of the later recruiting rankings even put him in the Top 10. And now some scouts view him as the top prospect in the NBA draft. Given Embiid’s raw talent level, I think it is phenomenal that he is posting an ORtg of 120 at this point. If he is this good now, it is scary to think how good he might become.

Rnk	Player	Team	PPG	Min Pct	Poss Pct	ORtg	OR Pct	DR Pct	Ast Pct
22	Robert Hubbs	Tennessee	5.1	46	18	94	5	5	7
23	Tyler Ennis	Syracuse	11.6	81	21	122	2	10	32
24	Anthony Barber	NC State	12.0	73	26	103	2	9	29
25	Jermaine Lawrence	Cincinnati	4.2	43	18	88	10	12	8
26	Rysheed Jordan	St. John's	6.9	41	25	96	8	8	24
27	Keith Frazier	SMU	6.5	40	19	108	3	9	15
27	Nigel Williams-Goss	Washington	12.3	79	23	99	4	12	27
29	Zak Irvin	Michigan	8.2	43	20	120	5	10	8
30	Kuran Iverson	Memphis	2.1	16	22	74	9	11	17
30	JaJuan Johnson	Marquette	6.1	36	17	117	1	7	14
32	Semi Ojeleye	Duke	2.6	9	20	114	12	11	3
33	Demetrius Jackson	Notre Dame	7.4	61	15	120	2	11	13
34	Matt Jones	Duke	2.8	20	19	98	5	6	4
34	Sindarius Thornwell	S. Carolina	10.8	64	24	101	5	11	14
36	Branden Greene	Kansas	2.3	12	20	88	0	12	9
37	Tyler Roberson	Syracuse	2.9	15	21	93	10	23	7
38	Jordan Mickey	LSU	14.1	78	21	109	9	16	6
39	Eric Mika	BYU	13.9	62	23	116	13	12	8
40	Conner Frankamp	Kansas	1.7	13	17	91	2	11	10
40	Nick King	Memphis	5.8	25	29	100	14	21	6
42	Johnathan Williams III	Missouri	6.8	68	16	112	16	16	5
44	Derrick Walton	Michigan	7.6	62	20	98	1	11	20
45	Christian Wood	UNLV	5.0	27	18	116	7	19	6
46	Roddy Peters	Maryland	6.6	51	23	94	2	5	32
47	Moses Kingsley	Arkansas	6.1	26	21	136	19	21	4
49	Zach LaVine	UCLA	12.4	63	19	124	2	9	14
50	Anton Gill	Louisville	1.6	11	16	105	3	17	5

Outside the Top 20, there are no guarantees. Tennessee’s Robert Hubbs, Cincinnati’s Jermaine Lawrence, and Memphis’ Kuran Iverson all have struggled with turnovers or shot selection this year. But the point of these tables isn’t to pick on the players with slow starts. The point is to praise players, who despite not wowing every recruiting service have dominated for their team.

For example, UCLA’s Zach LaVine has been much better than similarly ranked players. Thanks to his team’s tempo, his impressive efficiency, and his ability to earn his coaches trust and get playing time, LaVine has been scoring at an impressive rate this year.

And everyone has been raving about Tyler Ennis. His assist rate of 32 is tied for the top rate in the Top 50. But what makes it all the more remarkable is his extremely low turnover rate. It is shocking for someone that handles the ball as much as Ennis to turn it over only 11% of the time. His ability to create for others in such an efficient manner means that even when Ennis doesn’t have a big scoring day, he still makes Syracuse better.

Yes, Syracuse struggled against Miami on Saturday thanks to Cooney’s poor afternoon. But with Cooney’s shooting last year, and Ennis’ non-elite recruiting rank, I expected there to be a lot more frustrating afternoons for the Orange this year. Instead Ennis’s steady play has turned Syracuse from a Top 10 team into the clear ACC favorite.

And Ennis’s production is even more impressive when you compare him to other PGs outside the Top 20. St. John’s Rysheed Jordan was similarly ranked, but his inability to make 3’s or intermediate jumpers has hurt his overall game and limited his playing time. Michigan’s Derrick Walton has a less than impressive assist-to-turnover ratio and is not a reliable creator. Maryland’s Roddy Peter’s really struggles with TOs. And in the end, St. John’s, Michigan, and Maryland have all been disappointments. It is not automatic that PGs outside the Top 20 will step in and dominate, and that’s why Ennis deserves all the more praise for his fine play.

A few other thoughts:

-If anyone should be complaining about playing time, it is Duke’s Semi Ojeleye. But Duke’s biggest weakness is the lack of a shot-blocker in the middle, and as an undersized forward Ojeleye can’t fill that role.

-SMU resurgence has mostly been fueled without Top 100 recruits, but it doesn’t hurt to have one on the roster. With the SMU-Connecticut game tied on Saturday, Frazier’s assist, three, and driving basket in transition broke the game open in SMU’s favor.

-LSU’s Jordan Mickey has 43 blocks so far.

-Missouri’s Johnathan Williams hasn’t been asked to score much given the Tigers talented guards. But his offensive rebounding has still been a huge asset.

-Michigan’s  Zak Irvin is a big wing/guard, and I wondered whether he was going to get stuck behind Nik Stauskas and Glenn Robinson. But what I forgot was that John Beilein really knows how to find shooters. Even at 6’6”, Irvin has a natural 3 point shot, and you can never have too many outside shooters. Irvin’s points were particularly valuable in the Minnesota game given that Glenn Robinson went down early with an injury.

Click Here for Part 2

What I dont understand is how Jabari only has lower %mins and is 3rd??? Can someone help me understand the ranking? I just wish people would stop front running for names, yes Andrew Wiggins has the potential to be pretty good in time, but just like Ben Mclemore, he needs to stay and develop his game he is not a player who can just grab the ball and take over, Parker and Randle both are NBA ready Wiggins, Gordan shouldnt even be in the same convo..... I am just sooooo beside myself how do you give stats and rankings and then the player who BY FAR has the best stats not get ranked the best? I want people to just stop sugar coating things.... just be real and stop trying to hide behind stats and horrendous rankings.... What has Andrew Wiggins done to prove he is the best player? If you read into the stats you see Perry Elis is just as important or arguably more important than Wiggins to his team....he averages around 3 points less a game but 4 mins less playing, higer FG and 3pt %!!! Parker has outplayed BOTH WIggins and Gordan , just didnt get the W. 2/3 losses Kansas has Wiggins really didnt even show up to play....Bottom line Wiggins can DUNK, and kinda shoot, sometimes, maybe.....but I guess thats all people are looking at these days which is sad.

ToJo Sun wrote:What I dont understand is how Jabari only has lower %mins and is 3rd??? Can someone help me understand the ranking? I just wish people would stop front running for names, yes Andrew Wiggins has the potential to be pretty good in time, but just like Ben Mclemore, he needs to stay and develop his game he is not a player who can just grab the ball and take over, Parker and Randle both are NBA ready Wiggins, Gordan shouldnt even be in the same convo..... I am just sooooo beside myself how do you give stats and rankings and then the player who BY FAR has the best stats not get ranked the best? I want people to just stop sugar coating things.... just be real and stop trying to hide behind stats and horrendous rankings.... What has Andrew Wiggins done to prove he is the best player? If you read into the stats you see Perry Elis is just as important or arguably more important than Wiggins to his team....he averages around 3 points less a game but 4 mins less playing, higer FG and 3pt %!!! Parker has outplayed BOTH WIggins and Gordan , just didnt get the W. 2/3 losses Kansas has Wiggins really didnt even show up to play....Bottom line Wiggins can DUNK, and kinda shoot, sometimes, maybe.....but I guess thats all people are looking at these days which is sad.

You're an idiot..You obviously didn't read or you just didn't understand this at all..This was a list of the top 100 freshman going into college, and looking at their stats..This article was clearly created to show that Andrew Wiggins isn't number 1..

Fred_Wins wrote:

ToJo Sun wrote:What I dont understand is how Jabari only has lower %mins and is 3rd??? Can someone help me understand the ranking? I just wish people would stop front running for names, yes Andrew Wiggins has the potential to be pretty good in time, but just like Ben Mclemore, he needs to stay and develop his game he is not a player who can just grab the ball and take over, Parker and Randle both are NBA ready Wiggins, Gordan shouldnt even be in the same convo..... I am just sooooo beside myself how do you give stats and rankings and then the player who BY FAR has the best stats not get ranked the best? I want people to just stop sugar coating things.... just be real and stop trying to hide behind stats and horrendous rankings.... What has Andrew Wiggins done to prove he is the best player? If you read into the stats you see Perry Elis is just as important or arguably more important than Wiggins to his team....he averages around 3 points less a game but 4 mins less playing, higer FG and 3pt %!!! Parker has outplayed BOTH WIggins and Gordan , just didnt get the W. 2/3 losses Kansas has Wiggins really didnt even show up to play....Bottom line Wiggins can DUNK, and kinda shoot, sometimes, maybe.....but I guess thats all people are looking at these days which is sad.

You're an idiot..You obviously didn't read or you just didn't understand this at all..This was a list of the top 100 freshman going into college, and looking at their stats..This article was clearly created to show that Andrew Wiggins isn't number 1..

OK well help me understand jabroni ....the title says top 100 frosh after two months and then ANDREW WIGGINS is #1.... how am I an idiot? if it said ' HEY THIS IS A LIST OF THE TOP 100 FROSH THAT PROVE WIGGINS ISNT #1" then I wouldnt have went off. and its not top 100 who are going into college you IDIOT, all these players are currently balling as we speak. DUHHHH! All I asked is for someone to explain what is trying to be portrayed and I added some personal opinions, you gave me no insight whatsoever ....... please dont reply again unless you can help me understand this chart!