In today’s column, I examine college basketball players who saw the biggest jumps in PPG production in 2013-14. I’m going to exclude seniors. A number of seniors, like Temple’s Dalton Pepper (who improved his PPG from 2.9 to 17.5 last year) probably deserve more acknowledgment. But today I want to focus on players who still have college eligibility remaining. I’m also going to exclude players who saw big jumps in PPG production because they changed teams, since it is not that unusual for a player to score at a higher rate after transferring. In the tables below, I list players with jumps of five or more PPG last season while playing for the same team.
I’m going to focus on players that were rated as a 3-star recruits or higher by at least two scouting services, since these players tend to be more interesting to most readers. Nonetheless, as my last table shows, these are not the only players who broke out last year. Finally, I am going to drop players that only played a few games due to an injury or other issues, since very small samples can skew the PPG production.
PPG LY = Points Per Game Last Year in 2013-14
Increase in PPG = Increase in PPG from 2012-13 to 2013-14
ORtg Diff = Change in ORtg, points scored per 100 possessions
Pct Poss Diff = Change in aggressiveness, percentage of possessions used
Pct Min Diff = Change in playing time on full season. In a few cases due to injuries or other factors, players saw a decrease in playing time on the full season but saw their minutes per game increase. When the numbers don’t seem to add up, this is usually the explanation.
Pace Diff = Change in raw pace. I show raw pace instead of opponent-adjusted pace since PPG is based on the raw number of possessions in a game.
I said I was going to focus on players with eligibility remaining, but I wanted to discuss another group in the first table. This table lists players with huge jumps in PPG production who either declared for the NBA draft or who have elected to transfer this off-season. Sometimes when a player breaks out, he also decides to move on.
|
Player |
Last Year’s Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
T.J. Warren |
NC State |
24.9 |
12.8 |
-11.4 |
15% |
18% |
-3.7 |
|
Jabari Brown |
Missouri |
19.9 |
6.2 |
6.2 |
6% |
32% |
-2.4 |
|
Byron Wesley |
USC |
17.8 |
7.6 |
10.5 |
6% |
2% |
3.5 |
|
Nik Stauskas |
Michigan |
17.5 |
6.5 |
1.4 |
8% |
10% |
-1.5 |
|
Eron Harris |
West Virginia |
17.2 |
7.4 |
6.8 |
3% |
25% |
3 |
|
K.J. McDaniels |
Clemson |
17.1 |
6.2 |
9.3 |
6% |
20% |
-2.3 |
|
LaQuinton Ross |
Ohio St. |
15.2 |
6.9 |
6.5 |
1% |
30% |
0.8 |
|
Seth Allen |
Maryland |
13.4 |
5.6 |
15.0 |
1% |
-6% |
0.4 |
|
Jerami Grant |
Syracuse |
12.1 |
8.2 |
12.2 |
5% |
38% |
-4.7 |
Everyone in the first table declared for the NBA draft except for
-Byron Wesley who announced he was transferring to Gonzaga and who should be eligible next season
-Seth Allen who announced he was transferring to Virginia Tech and who will sit out next year
-Eron Harris who should make his transfer decision soon
Sometimes players see their PPG improve despite a drop in their ORtg. TJ Warren in the last table, and Kellen Dunham in the next table, saw their efficiency plummet as they took a much larger number of shots. In neither case were they being selfish; both teams lost a lot of scoring and needed someone to fill the void. But it is worth emphasizing that while Warren and Dunham scored a lot more, they also missed a lot more shots last year.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
Daniel Bejarano |
Colorado St. |
16.3 |
10 |
-1.4 |
11% |
29% |
1.2 |
|
Cameron Wright |
Pittsburgh |
10.5 |
6.2 |
-3.5 |
3% |
42% |
2.2 |
|
Kellen Dunham |
Butler |
16.4 |
6.9 |
-12.4 |
7% |
23% |
-0.8 |
On the flip side, a few players saw their PPG scoring jump despite becoming less aggressive on the court. In these cases, their jump in PPG production was almost entirely driven by an increase in playing time, but the improved shot selection also increased their efficiency.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
Alex Hamilton |
Louis. Tech |
14.5 |
6.7 |
7.4 |
-1% |
26% |
1.8 |
|
Maurice Walker |
Minnesota |
7.8 |
5.6 |
14.9 |
-1% |
24% |
0.9 |
|
Perry Ellis |
Kansas |
13.5 |
7.7 |
9.6 |
-1% |
36% |
0.8 |
|
Landry Nnoko |
Clemson |
6.5 |
5.5 |
31.9 |
-1% |
50% |
-2.3 |
|
Kenny Gaines |
Georgia |
13 |
9.3 |
22.4 |
-1% |
42% |
2.7 |
|
J.P. Tokoto |
N. Carolina |
9.3 |
6.7 |
14.8 |
-2% |
50% |
-1.5 |
|
Stefan Nastic |
Stanford |
7.4 |
5.4 |
32.7 |
-5% |
37% |
-1.2 |
Most of the players in the next table played substantially better last year. Still, I’m pulling this next group out to emphasize something. All of the teams in the next table saw substantial decreases in the quality of defense they faced on the full season. For example, the MWC was much worse last year, and San Diego St. faced far fewer great defenses than the year before. While the AAC had some great teams at the top, Louisville and Rutgers clearly had an easier schedule than the previous season. A few teams on this list are a surprise. I was frankly a little surprised to see that Syracuse’s opponents defenses plummeted from 8th in 2013 to 84th in 2014.
That said, when you improve your ORtg by double digits or increase your aggressiveness by 5% or more, that’s extremely impressive even if the defenses you faced were a little worse. I was particularly pleased to see Rutgers’ Kadeem Jack finally play to his potential. He enrolled early at Rutgers, struggled with some injuries, but responded well to new head coach Eddie Jordan.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
Yogi Ferrell |
Indiana |
17.3 |
9.7 |
9.4 |
7% |
14% |
1.5 |
|
Winston Shepard |
San Diego St. |
11.7 |
6 |
11.2 |
7% |
18% |
-3.2 |
|
Dwayne Polee II |
San Diego St. |
8.5 |
5.7 |
18.5 |
5% |
23% |
-3.2 |
|
Kadeem Jack |
Rutgers |
14.3 |
8.6 |
8.3 |
6% |
26% |
4.3 |
|
Fred Van Vleet |
Wichita St. |
11.6 |
7.3 |
31.0 |
1% |
39% |
-0.6 |
|
Anton Wilson |
Detroit |
7 |
5.2 |
17.9 |
0% |
38% |
-2 |
|
Trevor Cooney |
Syracuse |
12.1 |
8.7 |
25.4 |
0% |
53% |
-4.7 |
|
Montrezl Harrell |
Louisville |
14 |
8.3 |
2.6 |
5% |
33% |
2.5 |
|
Rashawn Rembert |
E. Tenn. St. |
16.8 |
7.9 |
23.9 |
1% |
23% |
4.9 |
|
Todd Mayo |
Marquette |
11.3 |
6 |
6.5 |
3% |
31% |
2.9 |
Many players who saw their PPG production jump benefitted from the fact that their teams played at a faster pace last year. This includes many of the players listed above, as well as the players in the next table. But keep in mind the extra possessions are not a big contributor to production. Even though Oklahoma had about 5 more possessions per game, given his role in the offense and playing time, that only translated to about 1 more PPG for Buddy Hield.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
D. Smith-Rivera |
Georgetown |
17.6 |
8.7 |
16.4 |
4% |
26% |
2.6 |
|
Jonathan Holmes |
Texas |
12.8 |
6.4 |
20.7 |
5% |
13% |
2.7 |
|
Cameron Ridley |
Texas |
11.2 |
7.1 |
34.1 |
2% |
25% |
2.7 |
|
Charles Mann |
Georgia |
13.9 |
7.2 |
10.5 |
3% |
18% |
2.7 |
|
Juwan Staten |
West Virginia |
18.1 |
10.5 |
17.2 |
7% |
26% |
3 |
|
Marvelle Harris |
Fresno St. |
14.3 |
6.9 |
9.9 |
2% |
25% |
4.2 |
|
Kyan Anderson |
TCU |
17 |
5 |
14.3 |
3% |
2% |
4.9 |
|
Buddy Hield |
Oklahoma |
16.5 |
8.7 |
16.7 |
3% |
27% |
5 |
|
Isaiah Cousins |
Oklahoma |
11 |
8.3 |
39.9 |
2% |
34% |
5 |
Defenses got worse across the board last year (thanks to the rule changes), so we saw more than our normal share of big jumps in PPG production. But I still think it is important to emphasize that sometimes even playing against relatively strong defenses again, with little help from pace, players simply improved in every area.
It’s easy to look at the summer as a chance to earn money, play video games, and catch your breath. But for a select few players every year, the time they put into the gym results in huge gains in every measurable category.
I was frankly shocked last year that Michigan’s Caris Levert shot 6% more than the year before, saw his ORtg jump 18.4 points, and his percentage of minutes jump 62%. But that’s the kind of development that can substantially improve the outlook for any team.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
Q. DeCosey |
Temple |
15.4 |
13.4 |
17.0 |
3% |
75% |
0.8 |
|
Will Cummings |
Temple |
16.8 |
11 |
18.2 |
9% |
21% |
0.8 |
|
Caris LeVert |
Michigan |
12.9 |
10.6 |
18.4 |
6% |
62% |
-1.5 |
|
Frank Kaminsky |
Wisconsin |
13.9 |
9.7 |
1.9 |
4% |
44% |
1.9 |
|
Marcus Paige |
North Carolina |
17.5 |
9.3 |
23.9 |
3% |
18% |
-1.5 |
|
DaVonté Lacy |
Washington St. |
19.4 |
8.9 |
7.9 |
7% |
6% |
0.6 |
|
Aaron Thomas |
Florida St. |
14.5 |
8.5 |
16.4 |
3% |
32% |
-0.2 |
|
Ky Madden |
Arkansas |
12.7 |
8.5 |
7.9 |
8% |
23% |
1.8 |
|
Jarvis Summers |
Mississippi |
17.3 |
8.2 |
12.6 |
7% |
13% |
-1.2 |
|
Michael Qualls |
Arkansas |
11.6 |
7 |
12.0 |
6% |
22% |
1.8 |
|
Michael Frazier |
Florida |
12.4 |
6.8 |
4.1 |
2% |
33% |
-0.2 |
|
Jake Layman |
Maryland |
11.7 |
6.2 |
7.5 |
3% |
29% |
0.4 |
|
Anthony Beane |
S. Illinois |
14.7 |
5.6 |
18.6 |
2% |
13% |
0.2 |
|
Anthony Perez |
Mississippi |
7.1 |
5.4 |
7.8 |
2% |
34% |
-1.2 |
|
Norman Powell |
UCLA |
11.4 |
5.3 |
23.3 |
5% |
9% |
0.5 |
|
Chasson Randle |
Stanford |
18.8 |
5.2 |
9.9 |
1% |
10% |
-1.2 |
|
Toddrick Gotcher |
Texas Tech |
7.3 |
5.1 |
23.9 |
3% |
35% |
-4.6 |
|
Kevin Bailey |
Portland |
16.5 |
5.1 |
16.5 |
1% |
0% |
1.9 |
While everyone listed above was rated relatively high by at least two of the scouting services, that’s not a requirement for a breakout year. Here were a few lower ranked players with huge jumps in PPG production last year.
Detroit’s Juwan Howard, Jr. maintained his ORtg despite using 10% more possessions last season. Eastern Washington’s Tyler Harvey started his career as a walk-on, and yet he became one of the highest scoring players in the nation last year. Air Force’s Tre’ Coggins and Youngstown St.’s Ryan Weber are transferring. Weber has landed at Ball St. Finally, Tulane head coach Ed Conroy was just given an extension, and his ability to develop multiple quality pieces at a time is surely one reason why.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG LY |
Increase in PPG |
ORtg Diff |
Pct Poss Diff |
Pct Min Diff |
Pace Diff |
|
D.J. Balentine |
Evansville |
22.8 |
14.7 |
13.9 |
10% |
38% |
1.3 |
|
Tyler Harvey |
E. Wash. |
21.8 |
14.7 |
9.1 |
1% |
69% |
1.3 |
|
Tre' Coggins |
Air Force |
16 |
13.6 |
11.5 |
6% |
55% |
0.9 |
|
Craig Bradshaw |
Belmont |
15.7 |
13.5 |
1.1 |
12% |
52% |
1.4 |
|
Louis Dabney |
Tulane |
15.2 |
13 |
6.6 |
5% |
63% |
-1.8 |
|
Jay Hook |
Tulane |
13.9 |
12 |
31.3 |
2% |
66% |
-1.8 |
|
Spencer Parker |
B. Green |
12.5 |
10.9 |
9.9 |
-3% |
80% |
2.5 |
|
J. Howard, Jr. |
Detroit |
18.3 |
10.7 |
4.0 |
10% |
24% |
-2 |
|
Max Yon |
Air Force |
13 |
10.3 |
2.7 |
4% |
68% |
0.9 |
|
Ryan Weber |
Youngst. St. |
12.2 |
10.2 |
20.5 |
3% |
56% |
0.9 |