Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change Of Scenery

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Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change Of Scenery 

Post#1 » by RealGM Articles » Fri Aug 1, 2014 8:47 pm

No player benefitted from a change of scenery last season more than Monta Ellis. After seeing his career spiral downward in an ill-fated stint with the Milwaukee Bucks, Monta found a new home with the Dallas Mavericks, where he was surrounded by three-point shooting and installed in a system that suited his talents. He averaged 19 points and 6 assists per game on 45% shooting and was one of the main catalysts for the Mavs return to the playoffs after a one-year hiatus. 


Monta went from laughingstock to cornerstone, the latest in a long line of guards to benefit from playing next to Dirk Nowitzki. His slashing ability was the perfect complement to Dirk's ability to stretch the floor and their two-man game became one of the most indefensible combinations in the league. However, for as well as he played, the holes in his game that haunted him in Golden State and Milwaukee are still there and it's unclear how he fits long-term in Dallas.


Last season was only the third time in Monta's nine-year career he made the playoffs and that's not entirely a coincidence, as he has a unique combination of strengths and weaknesses that make it difficult to build an elite team around him. Very few players can successfully share a backcourt with him - he didn't fit next to Steph Curry, Brandon Jennings or Jose Calderon. A team with Monta as a primary option has to pound a lot of square pegs into round holes.


At 6'3 185 with a 6'3 wingspan, he's a SG with the size of a PG. While he is a much better passer than he's often given credit for, he's an inconsistent decision-maker who needs to be paired with another ball-handler who can initiate the offense and control the tempo of the game. Monta is a SG who can't shoot 3's or play defense, which puts a tremendous amount of pressure on both sides of the ball for the other starting guard, regardless of which position they play.


Since Monta can't stretch the floor, he can't play with another guard who needs the ball in his hands and since he can't defend his position, he can't play with another minus defender. Monta's ideal backcourt partner should be able to defend both backcourt positions and shoot the ball at a high level while still being able to handle and take care of the ball like a PG. Here's the problem - if you look around the NBA, there are not many guards with that skill-set. 


As a rule, the type of guard that makes sense next to Monta on offense doesn't make sense next to him on defense. Calderon is a perfect example - at 6'3 210, he's a big PG who is one of the best shooters (45% from 3) and decision-makers (4.7 assists on 1.3 turnovers) in the NBA. Not only was he an elite floor spacer in Dallas, which opened up a ton of driving lanes, he rarely turned the ball over, which created a ton of possessions for Monta to do his thing.


The problem came on the other side of the ball, as a starting backcourt of Calderon and Monta was bleeding points defensively. When you add a 35-year-old Dirk to the mix, you had a starting unit regularly directing conga lanes to the front of the rim. As a result, Shawn Marion, the Mavs' small forward, was forced to defend four different positions, far too much to ask of a 34-year-old. When you have to cover for Calderon, Monta and Dirk, you don't get many nights off.


As versatile as Marion was on defense, his offensive game started to decline in his 15th season in the NBA, so the Mavs decided to upgrade the SF position this offseason with the signing of Chandler Parsons. And while Parsons is a decent defender, he's not capable of locking down an opposing team's PG or SG. That's the problem with building a team around multiple players with holes in their game - it's hard to create a line-up that works on both sides of the ball.


Parsons isn't the only new starter on the perimeter next season, as the Mavs brought in Jameer Nelson to replace Calderon at PG. Nelson is a good shooter and passer and is a much better defensive player than Calderon, but he's an undersized PG (6’0 190) in his 30’s. He will have to guard the opposing team's PG, which means that with Marion gone, Monta will spend a lot of nights guarding guys like Kobe Bryant, James Harden, Klay Thompson and Goran Dragic. 


In order to combat those defensive issues, Dallas will likely close games with Devin Harris, their best defensive guard, running point. That, however, opens up a whole different can of worms, as Harris shot only 31% from three last season and a back-court of Monta and Harris will struggle to space the floor for Dirk and Parsons. Rick Carlisle is a great coach, but there's only so much he can do - if he plugs a hole on offense, it opens one up on defense and vice versa.


Going forward, the big question in Dallas is how to best maximize Dirk's remaining years in the NBA. As great a combination as him and Monta are, you don't pay a guy like Parsons $15 million a season in order for him to be third option. And if Parsons and Dirk are going to be your top two options, you want as much defense and three-point shooting next to them as possible. So while the Mavs improved this offseason, but there's still a ceiling on their roster.


Dallas is committed to Parsons and Dirk for the next three years, but Monta has a player option in his contract and could hit free agency next summer. At 29, he would be looking for one last long-term deal, which would lock the Mavs into a core with a number of defensive issues. From there, it's hard to see the guard who makes Monta-Parsons-Dirk work. That's what it comes down too when trying to build an elite team - what a guy can't do is as important as what he can.

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Re: Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change 

Post#2 » by oaktownwarriors87 » Fri Aug 1, 2014 10:45 pm

Combined Parsons and Nowitzki shot about NINE 3 pointers a game at 39%.

I don't think the 2nd guards ability to hit 3 pointers will be a factor. Dallas should have locked up Livingston when they had the chance.
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Re: Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change  

Post#3 » by hoopsfan2424 » Sun Aug 3, 2014 2:53 pm

I usually like and agree with Tjarks' analysis, but here I'm confused with his logic. He writes: "And if Parsons and Dirk are going to be your top two options, you want as much defense and three-point shooting next to them as possible." That makes little sense to me. Dirk is the best three-point shooter in the league. Parsons can also shoot 3s. Monta's slashing game is well-complemented by Dirk's and Parsons' games. Tjarks says that "a back-court of Monta and Harris will struggle to space the floor for Dirk and Parsons." This statement is similarly confusing. You want to space the floor for Dirk and Parsons? Those guys are floor-spacers. Dirk is the best floor-spacer on the planet, as a 7-footer with the most reliable jumper in the league. Harris, like Monta, is a great slasher. And that 31% figure for Harris is misleading. He can shoot. He played only half the season. The past couple years he was 36% in Utah and 34% in Atlanta. And I know that "stats never lie" but I think that in this case, they do. Watch Harris play and it's apparent that he has great form and is a reliable shooter when his feet are set. His percentages are hurt by the fact that he often takes difficult 3-pt shots, either off the dribble or immediately after tirelessly chasing the other team's best guard.

Monta does have a couple major weaknesses, but Tjarks doesn't address them here. Specifically, he (1) can't go left and (2) has an unreliable mid-range jumper. Monta's lack of a left hand often crippled the Dallas attack. You can't run a pick-and-roll for him going left. His unreliable jumper also hurts him, as teams like the Spurs sag off him to an embarrassing degree. If Monta were to develop a left hand and a more reliable mid-range jumper, he would become one of the most lethal scorers in the league. As a Mavs fan, I'm praying that he's addressing those weaknesses this summer.
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Re: Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change  

Post#4 » by moe2014 » Sun Aug 3, 2014 4:26 pm

the factor tjarks is overlooking is the type of offense the mavs run. they don't run a guard-centric offense. they move the ball. ellis and calderon shared point guard duties last year. ellis and harris will do the same this year. whoever the mavs add in the future will do the same.

at their best, the mavs have always employed a two guard attack: nash-van exel, harris-terry, kidd-terry, etc. even with parsons now on board, the mavs needs a two guard attack to move the ball and be successful. i do think the mavs need an upgrade on devin harris next to monta, but monta should be around for a little while. he's been a great addition in dallas and i'd be surprised if they let him walk when his contract is up unless they have a realistic expectation of replacing him with someone better.
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Re: Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change  

Post#5 » by tavycat » Mon Aug 4, 2014 9:53 pm

I like Tjarks' analysis here. It makes a lot of sense especially the type of player that Ellis needs to play with to succeed. If Jason Kidd were still around he would be the perfect complement at this point. I'm a little suprised they didn't throw a large offer at Eric Bledsoe though. Bledsoe and Ellis in the backcourt could work and Bledsoe could guard the 2's that Ellis can't. Other options that might have been a little more costly in terms of assets could've been Jrue Holliday or Ricky Rubio. Tjarks is right when he says the player that maximizes Ellis' abilities are few and far between in the league, and the problem that persists with Ellis in the game is largely on defense. That being said, Harris has diminished so much offensively in recent years that he isn't feared by opposing defenses. And we all know its far more important for spacing purposes for the defense to fear you as a shooter which teams do not do to Harris.
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Re: Why Monta Ellis Could Soon Be Searching For Next Change  

Post#6 » by Skoolboy » Wed Aug 6, 2014 1:37 pm

He's in a good situation in Dallas.. they are built for a deep playoff run if everything goes as planned.. but hey hes an asset no matter where he lands
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