Later this month I plan to look at how the RSCI Top 100 freshmen have done this season. Today, I want to talk about some freshmen who were not consensus elite recruits, but who have had a big impact from the start anyhow. Let’s call this the Marcus Foster watch, after the Kansas St. freshman who dominated last season despite grading out just below the Top 100.
For the sake of length, I’m going to limit this discussion to players in the A10, ACC, American, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC, and Pac-12. I’m also going to limit this discussion to players that have played roughly 40% of the minutes this year, so freshmen that have missed games or struggled to crack the rotation will not be discussed. I am including redshirt freshmen in the discussion. All stats are through Saturday.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG |
RPG |
APG |
Pct Min |
Pct Poss |
ORtg |
|
Eric Paschall |
Fordham |
15.8 |
5.9 |
1.1 |
66.7 |
26.8 |
99.3 |
|
Dillon Brooks |
Oregon |
14.5 |
5.6 |
2.5 |
71.6 |
24.9 |
109.3 |
|
BJ Taylor |
UCF |
13.5 |
3.0 |
2.5 |
64.7 |
22.9 |
107.3 |
|
BJ Tyson |
East Carolina |
13.3 |
4.1 |
1.4 |
58.0 |
29.6 |
109.9 |
|
Riley LaChance |
Vanderbilt |
13.0 |
2.6 |
2.8 |
80.6 |
17.2 |
130.6 |
|
Bryant McIntosh |
Northwestern |
12.4 |
3.2 |
4.6 |
81.5 |
22.9 |
107.4 |
|
Christian Sengfelder |
Fordham |
12.3 |
6.6 |
0.8 |
81.7 |
17.8 |
109.9 |
|
Jaylen Adams |
St. Bonaventure |
11.8 |
2.0 |
3.3 |
76.3 |
18.8 |
114.2 |
|
Peyton Aldridge |
Davidson |
11.7 |
5.5 |
1.5 |
72.0 |
18.6 |
122.4 |
|
Adonys Henriquez |
UCF |
11.7 |
3.6 |
2.6 |
84.1 |
15.8 |
121.9 |
ESPN and Scout only rated Eric Paschall as a 3-star recruit. Though ESPN called him a late-bloomer with potential, they only had Paschall as the 65th best player at his position. Based on those rankings, our preseason SI rankings didn’t expect Paschall to be a key player right away. There were sources that follow the team closely, like Big Apple Buckets, that suspected Paschall was going to be a high volume scorer. But I think for most people, his scoring output has to qualify as a surprise.
Dillon Brooks re-classified, and might have been a Top 100 recruit if the scouting services had another year to evaluate him.
UCF obviously had some scoring holes to fill after last year. I suspected Adonys Henriquez was going to be a star. Though he didn’t make our ESPN Top 50 freshman scorers, he was 53rd on our list. ESPN had him as a 4-star recruit, and as the highest overall recruit on UCF’s roster, it made sense that he would score. The real surprise is BJ Taylor. Rated slightly lower, the score-first PG has emerged as a real leader for UCF.
Vanderbilt’s head coach Kevin Stallings said in the preseason that he was going to ride his five freshmen perimeter players heavily. I thought he might play elite PG recruit Shelton Mitchell a lot, since Mitchell was the only Top 100 prospect in the recruiting class, but I still expected Stallings to turn to his veterans. Even if he had struggled with health, I thought the offense might focus on big senior center Josh Henderson. But Stallings has been serious about building for next year and beyond, playing all five freshmen major minutes. And Riley LaChance has answered the bell making 25 threes so far this season.
Northwestern’s Dave Sobolewski is a good example of why players transfer when a new coaching staff arrives. Sobolewski was Northwestern’s starting PG from his freshmen season. But without shooters around him, he struggled to run Steve Wojciechowski’s offense. And since Wojciechowski did not recruit Sobolewski, he did not feel committed to the one-time Northwestern leader. Now a senior, Sobolewski is used sparingly. Instead, the new coaching staff is investing heavily in its own freshman PG, Bryant McIntosh. Thus far McIntosh has a superb assist rate (32%), while knocking down 42% (19 of 45) threes. Northwestern fans hope McIntosh’s career has a happier ending than Sobolewski’s.
Davidson’s Peyton Aldridge is not a huge surprise. Davidson needed to replace a lot of front-court minutes, and despite the fact that Aldridge was not a consensus 3-star recruit, he was 6’7” and the highest ranked recruit among Davidson’s newcomers. My model suspected he would be a key player. The surprise is that Aldridge has been such a good three point shooter. Aldridge has made 18 threes already this year, leading to an impressive ORtg and higher than expected PPG output.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG |
RPG |
APG |
Pct Min |
Pct Poss |
ORtg |
|
Nate Mason |
Minnesota |
10.8 |
3.4 |
2.9 |
58.9 |
19.6 |
119.7 |
|
Jakob Poeltl |
Utah |
10.3 |
8.4 |
0.4 |
58.9 |
23.4 |
110.0 |
|
Vince Edwards |
Purdue |
10.2 |
5.9 |
2.3 |
64.9 |
17.9 |
127.1 |
|
Jonathan Motley |
Baylor |
9.8 |
4.7 |
0.8 |
57.7 |
24.9 |
102.2 |
|
Shep Garner |
Penn St. |
9.8 |
2.4 |
2.3 |
65.0 |
18.6 |
114.8 |
|
TySean Powell |
Duquesne |
9.7 |
3.7 |
0.4 |
47.4 |
19.9 |
124.5 |
|
Donte Clark |
Massachusetts |
9.4 |
1.9 |
1.5 |
52.0 |
20.2 |
114.8 |
|
Deandre Burnett |
Miami FL |
9.3 |
3.7 |
0.6 |
33.0 |
27.1 |
100.4 |
|
Toby Hegner |
Creighton |
8.5 |
3.4 |
0.9 |
56.5 |
16.9 |
115.3 |
|
Konstantinos Mitoglou |
Wake Forest |
8.4 |
5.1 |
0.6 |
48.9 |
19.4 |
117.1 |
Jakob Poeltl is a 7’0” Austrian shot-blocker that most US scouting services didn’t even review. And unlike many of the players in this column, he’s playing for a clear NCAA tournament team, making him a vital diamond-in-the-rough. Poeltl has 29 blocks so far this year. Speaking of defense, Nate Mason has 34 steals already this season for Minnesota.
Purdue’s Top 100 freshman recruit, Isaac Haas, is getting a lot of hype, which he deserves. But not enough people have noted what Vince Edwards has done this year. The 3-star prospect has thrived opposite Purdue’s two dominant centers by crashing the offensive glass and knocking down a good number of outside shots. Edwards had 16 points in Saturday’s win over Michigan moving Purdue to 2-0 in the Big Ten.
Despite missing the RSCI Top 100 last year, we had redshirt freshman Deandre Burnett in SI’s preseason Top 50 freshman scorers. And while his shot volume has been there, his efficiency has not.
|
Player |
Team |
PPG |
RPG |
APG |
Pct Min |
Pct Poss |
ORtg |
|
|
Saint Louis |
8.4 |
4.6 |
1.6 |
48.2 |
27.3 |
98.5 |
|
Wade Baldwin |
Vanderbilt |
8.3 |
3.8 |
4.8 |
66.2 |
18.2 |
124.5 |
|
Gary Clark |
Cincinnati |
8.2 |
7.1 |
1.4 |
65.0 |
18.4 |
117.2 |
|
Norense Odiase |
Texas Tech |
8.2 |
5.0 |
0.6 |
53.2 |
21.7 |
104 |
|
Mike Williams |
Rutgers |
8.1 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
66.4 |
19.3 |
92.6 |
|
Antwoine Anderson |
Fordham |
8.1 |
2.0 |
4.1 |
53.0 |
20.8 |
98.4 |
|
Mitchell Wilbekin |
Wake Forest |
8.0 |
1.9 |
1.7 |
48.3 |
14.1 |
118.2 |
|
Jevon Carter |
West Virginia |
7.9 |
1.8 |
1.5 |
49.5 |
17.5 |
120.2 |
|
Ricky Doyle |
Michigan |
7.8 |
3.2 |
0.3 |
43.7 |
18.7 |
132.9 |
|
Justin Gray |
Texas Tech |
7.7 |
3.2 |
0.6 |
51.0 |
19.1 |
110.7 |
|
Oskar Mickelson |
Davidson |
7.6 |
2.2 |
0.9 |
48.8 |
13.4 |
136 |
|
Khadeen Carrington |
Seton Hall |
7.5 |
2.7 |
1.5 |
52.8 |
22.1 |
93.2 |
|
Yuta Watanabe |
G. Washington |
7.2 |
4.1 |
0.5 |
54.0 |
16.6 |
109.6 |
|
Cornelius Hudson |
Wake Forest |
7.1 |
3.6 |
1.0 |
49.8 |
17.6 |
96.9 |
|
Ny Redding |
Washington St. |
7.0 |
1.9 |
4.1 |
58.4 |
20.8 |
98.9 |
Along with Burnett, Gary Clark was the other player we pegged as a major scorer who was not a Top 100 recruit. So far, on an offensively challenged Cincinnati team, he’s been an important presence.
John Beilein has had a magic touch with developing unheralded players, and Ricky Doyle has been solid for Michigan. The problem is that several of Michigan’s returning players have taken a step back. But don’t blame Doyle for the team’s record.
As we count down some of the other surprise scorers, we start to get to some players with some real efficiency issues. It isn’t clear to me that some of these players would be playing major minutes for good teams.
Among players scoring below 7 PPG, a few freshmen stand out. Dayton’s Darrell Davis and Vanderbilt’s Matthew Fisher-Davis have emerged as real three point threats. West Virginia’s Daxter Miles and Seton Hall’s Desi Rodriguez have turned into very good steal-artists. Texas Tech’s Zach Smith, USF’s Bo Ziegler, Georgia’s Yante Maten, and Temple’s Obi Enechionyia are all solid shot-blockers. And Davidson’s Nathan Ekwu, Alabama’s Riley Norris, Missouri’s D’Angelo Allen, and Tulane’s Dylan Osetkowski have filled a vital role as quality defensive rebounders.
Unheralded freshman PGs are always a bit of a mixed bag. Coaches often want someone on the floor who can handle the ball and create. But freshman PGs often struggle with TOs and their FG%. This year, we see a plethora of non-Top 100 freshman PGs who are playing, but who are just not that efficient. This list includes Providence’s Kyron Cartwright, St. Joseph’s Shavar Newkirk, Georgia Tech’s Travis Jorgenson, South Carolina’s Marcus Stroman, Fordham’s Nemanja Zarkovic, and the St. Louis duo of Marcus Bartley and Davell Roby.
When it comes to pure playing time, Oregon’s Casey Benson and Ahmaad Rorie should get credit. But neither has really thrived. (Benson is efficient, but he almost never shoots.) And a number of other players have cracked rotations, but none have really stood out.
But even for the players listed above that look efficient and have been scoring, conference play provides a new challenge. The scouting reports are only going to get tougher and well-coach opponents will now work to take each player’s favorite scoring move away. To be a true star, you have to continue to perform in January, February, and March, not just December.
