NCAA Tournament Day 2

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NCAA Tournament Day 2 

Post#1 » by RealGM Articles » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:39 am

Thursday was one of those days that might have ruined Friday. A number of Friday’s games were enjoyable. The Oklahoma vs Albany game might have been exciting in some contexts. But after the way the Iowa St. and Baylor games went down the previous day, it was hard to get an adrenaline rush from seeing a 3-seed leading by just 6 points. Moreover, many of the “close” games didn’t have great endings. Somehow, I’ll still find plenty to write about:


#2 Kansas defeated #15 New Mexico St.


In recent seasons, it would not have been a bad strategy to make Kansas shoot a lot of threes. But this is the Jayhawks best three point shooting team in four years. And the team went 9 of 13 from deep with five different players chipping in from beyond the arc. The first game wasn’t close.


#7 Michigan St. defeated #15 Georgia


The final score may make it seem like this game was close, but it was never really in doubt. Michigan St. had a commanding lead in the second half before some bad shot selection let Georgia back in the game. I’m sorry but Michigan St.’s Tum Tum Nairn should not be shooting at this point in the season.  And even if Marvin Clark has made a few threes this year, if the announcers are that shocked to see you shoot a three, if you shoot an airball despite being wide-open, that’s probably a sign that you should have driven the basketball in that situation.


But once the game got tight, Michigan St. made sure to get their best player, Branden Dawson, the ball. Dawson scored eight straight, including two “and one” plays, and Michigan St. had enough points to hold on, even with a few late turnovers.


I’m obviously oversimplifying here. If the Spartan role players are that wide open, sometimes they will have to shoot. And Branden Dawson had a very quiet day, spending longer on the bench than he wanted because Tom Izzo wasn’t happy with his effort level. But in these tournament games, a team has to make sure its best players take the shots. It isn’t the time for a role player to suddenly decide to expand his game. And against Virginia, Michigan St. is going to have to be nearly perfect. The Spartans can’t afford to waste any more shots.


#5 Northern Iowa defeated # 12 Wyoming


At one point in the second half, Wyoming was 9 of 18 from three and Northern Iowa was 8 of 16 from three. That basically sums these two teams up perfectly. They are hard to score against, but both are comfortable working the shot clock. And if they have to take a three late in the shot clock, both teams still convert those shots better than you would expect.


After Northern Iowa took a 21 point lead in the second half, Wyoming went on a 14-0 run keyed by a few huge plays by Wyoming senior Larry Nance. Nance hit from beyond the arc and had a great put-back dunk. But then Paul Jesperson, the Northern Iowa wing who transferred from Virginia, nailed a big three from the top of the arc to break the momentum. Northern Iowa coasted from there.


#5 West Virginia defeated #12 Buffalo


This was finally our first good game of the afternoon. Doug Gottlieb was correct. It felt like West Virginia was up 20, when the lead was only 7 points. The Moutaineers missed some lay-ups and dunks in transition that would have made the margin much more comfortable. Juwan Staten also did a great job getting in the lane, but with West Virginia missing some free throws, they couldn’t quite put it away.


I had two dominant thoughts in this game. First, West Virginia sure better hope that Devin Williams is healthy in the upcoming games. He grabs a ridiculous 30% of the defensive rebounds this year, and when he twisted his ankle, it was almost a game-changing moment. With Jonathan Holton fouling out, if Williams had been unable to go, it seemed more than likely that Buffalo’s great forward Justin Moss could have put the game away. But Williams shook off the injury, got back in the game, and continued to battle.


Second, West Virginia didn’t play a ton of pressure defense late in this game with the lead. They played more 1-3-1 zone. But you have to believe that their defensive pressure is a tremendous asset in late game situations. If a player has to fight to get the ball up court, how much energy can he have left to keep Juwan Staten out of the lane?


As for the game’s ending, with West Virginia leading by two, Buffalo’s Justin Moss shoved his defender away in the paint and miraculously didn’t get called for a charge. Moss had the ball under the basket… and missed the point-blank lay-up. On the other end, Juwan Staten found Tarik Phillip who nailed a three and West Virginia had a 5 point lead with just 30 seconds left. That sealed the win.


#2 Virginia defeated #15 Belmont


This game was closer than the final score would indicate. Belmont’s Craig Bradshaw banked in a three to cut the lead to 60-57, pounded his chest and said, “I called it.” Then he made another three to make it 62-60.


“The game pressure is now squarely on Virginia.” Never were a set of words so inappropriate. Virginia doesn’t fold under pressure, they thrive under it. Virginia plays all year to maximize every possession. Most good teams would like to win over 60 or 70 possessions. Virginia is happy to put all the pressure on 50 possessions. And the moment the game got close, Virginia blew it wide open.


#4 Louisville defeated #13 UC Irvine


I wish this game had been on in prime time because watching 7’6” Irvine center Mamadou Ndiaye was every bit as fun as I had hoped.


For awhile it seemed like Lousville might have the pieces to take away Ndiaye’s game. With Louisville nursing a 39 to 37 lead, Irvine threw the ball to Ndiaye in the post, but Lousivlle’s own international center, Mangok Mathiang, pushed Ndiaye far enough out of the lane, that Ndiaye couldn’t get a good look at the basket.


Then after another Irvine miss, Terry Rozier attacked in transition and made it 41-37 before Ndiaye could even get back defensively. Though Ndiaye is an amazing rim protector, he can be very slow getting up and down the court.


But the second half actually featured Ndiaye playing a much bigger role than I expected. Though Louisville’s players were fighting hard to deny him the ball, Ndiaye caught a lob and slammed it home to make it 41-39. Then in truly ridiculous fashion, when he got back defensively, Ndiaye actually slapped the floor, encouraging Louisville to go faster and attack him.


Over this stretch of the game, Ndiaye had 8 of Irvine’s 10 points. And if NBA scouts were watching, I have to imagine someone was intrigued. At 7’6” Ndiaye has muscle. He isn’t a paper thin big man. He has some footwork. He would obviously be a pretty huge project, but you don’t cut to the basket and make plays on a defense as good as Louisville’s defense if you don’t have some talent.


I called for this game to come down to the wire in my NCAA preview. I said it would be a Terry Rozier buzzer beater. Instead, it was freshman Quentin Snider who grabbed the defensive rebound, got fouled, and despite making only 16 of 27 free throws on the year, canned both free throws to win the game.


Louisville has not had many scorers besides its top four this year. At one point, the team had a scrimmage where the four best players sat out and everyone else had to play, just to see if anyone else could get any confidence. But when Chris Jones was kicked off the team, almost by default Snider had to take on a larger role. He isn’t perfect. He is still a freshman. But he now has the game-winning points in an NCAA tournament game.


#4 Maryland defeated #13 Valparaiso


Maryland fans should celebrate, but to the neutral viewer, this was not an entertaining ending. The last eight minutes of the game featured a ton of free throws and fouls, and not necessarily great execution. For Melo Trimble to make it to the line made sense. He’s been one of the best in the nation at getting to the line and making his foul shots. And for Dez Wells to fight in the paint and get a bucket and one made sense. But what didn’t make sense was how after almost every Valparaiso miss, Valparaiso players were going up the back of Maryland players and sending them to the line time and time again.


And Maryland committed plenty of dumb fouls too, including a particularly egregious one while trying to fight through a defensive screen.


It is more fun when a game ends with big shots than a parade of made free throws. But Maryland is one of the best free throw shooting teams left in the NCAA tournament. And if that was how they had to win the game, they were more than equipped to do so.


I should also give some love to Damonte Dodd. If you just started reading my columns in the NCAA tournament, you may have missed the post where I identified Dodd as one of the most improved players in the country. Well, Dodd’s two late dunks were huge as Maryland extended their lead.


#7 Wichita St. defeated #10 Indiana


I watched this entire game despite seeing the ending of all those other games. The DVR is a wonderful -thing. And the reason I wanted to watch this game was because Indiana has been a great team to watch this year. With five shooters, an attacking fast-paced system, and a star PG in Yogi Ferrell, Indiana games have plenty of fast free-flowing action. For all the fans clamoring to fire Tom Crean because of the way Indiana’s season ended, they shouldn’t forget how fun it was to watch this team play.


The problem for Indiana this year seemed to be that they were a poor second half team. A few weeks ago against Northwestern, they scored 40 points in the first half, only to score 25 in the second half in the loss. In the Big 10 quarterfinal against Maryland, they had 40 in the first half and 29 in the second half. It just felt like Indiana would get this adrenaline rush from knocking down threes in the first half of games, but once they got a little tired, the same shots wouldn’t fall.


Indiana played better in the second half against Wichita St. But they still gave up a 9 point run that turned the tide late in the game. And with Fred VanVleet out-dueling Yogi Ferrell on the game, I was taken by a comment by Kenny Smith made in the studio. Smith noted that Ferrell and VanVleet were both great at being aggressive. But VanVleet had another level where he could also be very cerebral. Another way to put it might be this: In a half-court close game, VanVleet makes better decisions. It is hard to believe that Yogi Ferrell has another level of basketball in him, as Ferrell is already a college star. But that might be something to work on.


For Wichita St., it was good to win on a day where Ron Baker did not play well. A few of the unknown big men had surprising days. Freshman Shaquille Morris got a nice ovation from the crowd for his solid play. But I think it is important to remember that Indiana’s interior defense is suspect, so a lot of interior players have had nice performances against the Hoosiers.


In the end, the most important thing for Wichita St. is that they advanced. Because Kansas is next, and that game means everything to the Wichita St. program.


#8 Oregon defeated #9 Oklahoma St.


This was another entertaining game with up and down basketball and few fouls. Though it was close, the end game execution was less interesting than the stories of the players on the sidelines.


Oklahoma St. senior LeBryan Nash was a Top 10 recruit in the 2011 high school class. But while everyone else in that class either moved on to the NBA (Anthony Davis, Cody Zeller), or at least the NBA Developmental League (Adonis Thomas), Nash somehow lost his NBA prospect status. He slowly improved his efficiency by giving up his outside game. And his ORtg rose from 89 to 99 to 110 between his freshman and junior seasons. Then as a senior, with Marcus Smart leaving the program, he had to become much more aggressive on the basketball court. Though his ORtg fell back below 100, he took fully 31% of the shots when his team was on the floor. He scored 18 points, but fouled out with 2 seconds left in the NCAA tournament loss, ending his career.


Meanwhile teammate Anthony Hickey was often the scapegoat at LSU. He obviously wasn’t doing a good enough job feeding the ball to LSU’s great forwards. And he obviously had some off-court issues that led to him getting kicked off the team before his senior season. But he shot 40% from three his senior year at Oklahoma St. He was one of the best in the nation at forcing steals. He was a point guard with a solid assist to turnover ratio his entire career. And yet, there was no happy NCAA win at the end of his journey.


Oklahoma St. center Michael Cobbins was injured last year, and many blamed his absence for Oklahoma St.’s collapse last season. But he redeemed himself as a senior. He played the whole Big 12 season and he was the team’s most efficient player in the NCAA tournament game thanks to his 3 offensive rebounds and solid shooting night. But like his two teammates, he ended the season losing 7 of his last 8 games.


A year after the Marcus Smart season ended in disappointment, this was supposed to be a rebuilding year. Oklahoma St. fans weren’t expecting to get their spirit broken again. But Oklahoma St. somehow rose up into the Top 25. Oklahoma St. somehow beat Kansas. This looked like a season of redemption for those three seniors, until it wasn’t.


On the opposite sideline, Dana Altman proved once again why he is one of the most under-rated NCAA coaches of the last 20 years. We completely overlooked his dominance at Creighton because he didn’t win enough tournament games. But he was the perfect fit for the Nike school. Even this year, with a thin roster, he played fun, up-tempo, winning basketball. Joseph Young had a lot to do with that. But it could have never happened if Altman didn’t develop five or six other players with relatively low expectations heading into the season.


For so long at Creighton, Altman never got the call for a better job because he didn’t have that signature NCAA tournament win. Now with wins in three straight NCAA trips, he has filled in the missing lines in his resume. Dana Altman is a winner in every basketball way.


#7 Iowa defeated #10 Davidson


Fran McCaffery has taken four teams to the NCAA tournament. He knows how to win. But after the slow struggle to build Iowa back up, after some of his sideline meltdowns (including a chair slamming incident), it was easy to believe that the rebuild was going to fail. But Friday McCaffery finally broke through.


Iowa had not won an NCAA tournament game since 2001. (Remember Reggie Evans?) But with a convincing 30 point victory, Iowa fans can finally celebrate again. The drought is over.


A year ago, Iowa broke an 8 year NCAA tournament drought. But they lost 7 of their last 8 games, much like the Oklahoma St. team above. This year however, the Hawkeyes won 7 of 8 to end the year. And as I showed on Tuesday, Iowa was the 13th hottest team in the nation heading into the NCAA tournament. No one noticed because they lost to Penn St. in the Big Ten tournament, but prior to that they won their last six Big Ten games.


Though the NCAA tournament drought ended last year, because of the way the team was losing to end the year, Iowa fans really had no chance to celebrate. This year’s first round win was finally the coronation. And it came in an up-tempo exciting game that had to remind fans of the days of former head coach Tom Davis. If the drought had to be so long, at least it ended in style.


#1 Duke defeated #16 Robert Morris


Mike Krzyzewski might not have been happy with Jahlil Okafor’s showboating missed dunk. But this is a 1-16 game, and Okafor finished 9 of 11 from the floor. That mistake will soon be forgotten.


#3 Oklahoma defeated #14 Albany


Wait a minute, was CBS really showing a feed of Peter Hooley’s family watching the game from Australia? Hooley, whose mom died from cancer, hit the game winning shot to send Albany to the NCAA tournament. But the idea of seeing his family fretting on a video feed seemed a little weird to me.


Lon Kruger is now the first coach to win an NCAA tournament game at five different schools. He did it at Kansas St., Florida, Illinois, UNLV, and now Oklahoma.


#1 Wisconsin defeated #16 Coastal Carolina


Wisconsin’s three starting forwards made 8 of their 15 three point attempts. Wisconsin’s starting guards made 3 of their 12 attempts. Wisconsin’s forwards are really hard to guard.


#8 San Diego St. defeated #9 St. John’s


College basketball teams are not supposed to be able to make transactions. But San Diego St. and St. John’s have both done that in opposite ways. San Diego St. picked Dwayne Polee up off the injured reserve list and watched him nail 4 of 6 first half threes. And St. John’s suspended rim-protecting center Chris Obekpa and watched San Diego St. attack the rim more aggressively than would have otherwise been possible.


While it was a nice offensive performance for San Diego St., I’m at least a little bit concerned about the illness for Aqeel Quinn. He had a virus and was just 1 of 6 from the floor. Steve Fisher tried to make Trey Kell his starting PG at the beginning of the year, but Kell wasn’t ready. And Kell missed a bunch of free throws, was 0 of 4 from the floor, and had a late turnover against St. John’s. It certainly doesn’t look like Kell is ready for the spotlight if Quinn isn’t healthy against Duke.


Meanwhile, St. John’s D’Angelo Harrison, a nearly 2200 point scorer, the third highest scorer in St. John’s history, sees his career come to an end. Harrison was remarkably consistent. He averaged between 16.8 and 17.8 points per game in every year of his career. His minutes, shot volume, and efficiency were also nearly as consistent every year. The shot of him on the sideline, realizing he won’t win an NCAA game in his career was heart-breaking.


#2 Gonzaga defeated #15 North Dakota St.


Speaking of disappointment, perhaps the best part of the Gonzaga game was the feature they did at half-time on losing in the NCAA tournament. I thought Wally Szczerbiak’s comment was the best. He said, even when you are the underdog, you still think you are going to win these tournament games. No one ever expects their season to end. I saw a documentary recently that made a similar point. It said, experience teaches you what you can’t do. The great thing about young people is that they don’t have experience so they think anything is possible.


And NDSU’s Dexter Werner sure seemed to think that anything was possible. He was 10 of 14 against a bigger stronger Gonzaga front line. There is nothing like getting a career high for points in the NCAA tournament, even if it happens in a loss.


#11 Dayton defeated #6 Providence


The favored seed had won every game today, 15 straight, and 23 straight dating back to last night. But Dayton ensured that we did not have the first “upset” free Round of 64 day in NCAA tournament history.


If you’ve followed Providence this season, they’ve been solid at four positions, but struggled mightily to find one more guard to compliment Kris Dunn and LaDontae Henton. Kyron Cartwright and Junior Lomomba were simply limited offensive players and Providence just hasn’t had the shooting from that other guard slot. Ironically, over the last two games of the year, they found it. Jalen Lindsay was 4 of 8 from three on Friday, and he was 3 of 5 from deep against Villanova in the Big East semifinal. With Lindsay making shots, Providence was seemingly set at every position.


But there was one small problem. LaDontae Henton, one of the two superstar players for Providence, a player who dueled Jerian Grant in an epic battle in November, a player who scored 20 or more points 18 times this year, had two of the worst games of his career in his last two games of the year. Henton was 2 of 9 against Villanova, and 7 of 26 against Dayton. Both Villanova and Dayton had something Henton had rarely seen this season, undersized forwards with enough quickness to guard him and keep him off balance. And with Kris Dunn also having a subpar afternoon, Providence’s promising season came to an end.


As for Dayton, who needs a bench? Dayton is down to six players who were original scholarship players (Bobby Wehri was a walk-on initially.) But there are a number of teams in the NCAA tournament with short benches. Sometimes a shorter bench builds better chemistry. According to Kenpom.com, six remaining tournament teams give fewer than 23% of their minutes to their bench, and several of these teams are expected to make a deep run. Those teams are #1 Wisconsin, #3 Oklahoma, #3 Notre Dame, #6 Butler, #11 UCLA, and #11 Dayton. Ironically, Dayton faces one of those teams, Oklahoma in the next round.

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