“I’m going to go with myself.”
That was Klay Thompson’s response when asked to name the league’s best shooting guard. While media members and players alike were quick to dismiss this proclamation, Thompson has a right to make this claim due to the success he’s had over his first five NBA seasons.
As a result of playing on the same team as the reigning MVP (Stephen Curry) and a triple double machine who finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting (Draymond Green), Thompson’s achievements have often been overlooked. This is a player who is a two-time All-Star already, but many find it difficult to consider Thompson a true star due to his status as the third-best player on his own team.
Historical precedent indicates a strong argument can be made that Thompson is in fact a star. Below are the per-36 minute stats of Klay Thompson and a recently inducted Hall of Fame player through their first five seasons (note: although per-36 minute stats are being shown here, they are not skewed due to per game minutes being drastically different – in this case, Thompson has averaged 32 mpg while the other player has averaged 34 mpg).
Source: Basketball Reference
The second line of stats belongs to Thompson. You will quickly notice that these stats are eerily similar. It would be almost impossible to imagine two more statistically-comparable players. Pts/36? Equal. Rebounds/36? Equal. Steals, blocks, and turnovers? Virtually identical. Thompson is a better percentage three-point shooter, while the other player is better from midrange and the line, but given the additional value of the three-point shot, we can conclude that these two players have relatively comparable shooting skills.
To add to the oddity of the similarity between these two players is the fact that both were selected 11th overall in the draft and were both two-time first team All-Pac-10 while in college.
So, who is this player who Thompson has been mirroring over his first five NBA seasons? None other than Reggie Miller.
While Miller is the most accomplished member of the Indiana Pacers of all-time (with such achievements as being a 5-time All-Star, 3-time All-NBA third team selection, Pacers’ all-time leading scorer) and has had numerous indelible playoff moments (such as the 8 points in 9 seconds, the rivalry with Spike Lee, competing against Michael Jordan, and making numerous incredible game winning, buzzer-beaters), he mainly accrued these honors after his first five seasons. Through his first five seasons, Miller was not always the Pacers’ primary scoring option – sharing these honors with 1987 Rookie of the Year and fourth overall pick Chuck Person. Miller only earned one All-Star nod in 1990, when he averaged a career-high 24.6 ppg – his next All-Star bid would not come until 1995.
Compare that to Thompson – who has now been named an All-Star two seasons in a row and was a crucial part of the Warriors’ championship last season. Perhaps it is easy to overlook Thompson’s star status due to the fact that he hasn’t had any memorable playoff moments. In contrast, when people think of Miller, it is his playoff performances that immediately come to mind. However, it is important to remember that Miller only became a household name during the 1994 Eastern Conference Finals, when, in Game 5, he torched the Knicks for 25 fourth-quarter points (39 total) and infamously gave Spike Lee the choke-hold gesture.
Throughout their first five seasons, as a result, Thompson has achieved similar, and arguably, more success than Miller. Though Thompson is the Warriors’ second or third best player (depending on the night), this does not necessarily mean Miller was a more successful player over his first five years compared to Thompson. Miller, too, would have been a third option had he been on this Warriors’ roster.
The comparison between Miller and Thompson’s first five seasons would not be complete without addressing the differences in the style of the NBA game in the late-80s/early-90s and the present. During the isolation-heavy offenses of the 90s, a player of Miller’s caliber was more noticeably a “star,” because at that point in time, stars were equated with being high-volume scorers – and that was Miller’s main skill. He was a reliable go-to player who got to the line six times per game and scored at a prolific rate. Meanwhile, the present-day NBA emphasizes ball movement, spacing, and long-distance shooting. This is made evident when analyzing the average number of season-long 3-point attempts per team when Miller first became an All-Star (586 in 1990) versus when Thompson first became an All-Star (1838 in 2015) – an incredible increase of 213%. More stunningly, Thompson attempted more 3-pointers in 2014-2015 (545) than 13 entire NBA teams in 1990 (Cleveland was ranked 15th in attempts at 479).
In trying to understand why Thompson is overlooked in the star player conversation, one possible explanation is the fact that the NBA’s style has changed much quicker than fans’ perceptions of what a star player represents. Although Thompson is not a player who dominates the ball in isolation (only 2.6 career free throw attempts per 36 minutes) and scores many of his baskets off teammates’ assists, that does not preclude him from being a star. Thompson, undoubtedly, has a star-level impact on the game – such as by opening up the floor for Curry and Green to do damage while defenders stay glued to Thompson on the 3-point line.
Thompson is also a much better defensive player than Miller ever was. While this is evident through the eye test and advanced stats also favor Thompson.
Thompson’s defensive contributions guarding players like Chris Paul, for example, helps conserve Curry’s energy to make more of an offensive impact. Not only that – his floor spacing enables Curry more room to operate. We particularly saw this in last year's Finals when the Cavaliers never allowed Thompson's defender to leave him, letting the Warriors play 4-on-4. As a result of positively impacting Curry’s offensive win shares, it can be argued that Thompson’s 15 Offensive Win Share figure is understated due to his indirect impact on the Warriors’ overall offensive win shares. On the other hand, this stat points out that Miller conserved his energy on defense (or simply was an ineffective defender) and put all of his efforts on the offensive end.
Given the discrepancy in defensive value of these two players, perhaps a comparison to another former NBA star would be more suitable. Earning his first all-star nod in his fifth season, Mitch Richmond was in a similar situation to Thompson in that he spent the majority of his first five seasons playing alongside other star players – such as Tim Hardaway and Chris Mullin with the Warriors. As a result, and in contrast to the comparison with Miller, now it is more applicable to compare the two players’ total win shares over their first five seasons.
Again, Thompson’s defensive value shines through. While both players contributed an equal amount of win shares, Thompson provided 41% of those win shares on the defensive end compared to 27% for Richmond.
Ultimately, given that he compares favorably with two Hall of Fame shooting guards on the offensive end and far surpasses both on defense, there should be no doubt Thompson has achieved star-level results over his first five seasons.
