With 2017 just over a week away from being in the books, we’ll throw out some predictions for the upcoming year in the NBA.
1. The Jazz will make the playoffs and the Pelicans will become a team in transition
Rudy Gobert has missed 15 games and is set to be sidelined until mid-January. Joe Johnson has played in only 11 of Utah’s 32 total games. Newcomer Ricky Rubio has been erratic while seeing some of his playmaking magic toned down by Utah’s equal-opportunity offense. In short, not a lot has gone right for the Jazz.
But despite losing seven of their past eight games, Utah only sits 2.5 games behind New Orleans in what looks like a 9-team race competing for spots in the Western Conference playoffs. On top of that, the Jazz currently sport a better point differential (+1.4 to -1.2) and emerging star in Donovan Mitchell. As long as Gobert can come back for the final three months of the season and stay healthy, the Jazz should be ahead of a defensively challenged Pelicans in the standings come mid-April.
And that result will likely trigger some changes throughout the roster and front office of New Orleans.
2. There might be a three-way tie for Rookie of the Year runner-up behind Ben Simmons
Speaking of Mitchell, he’ll join two other NBA newcomers -- Jayson Tatum and Kyle Kuzma -- in what should be a tightly contested race for second behind Ben Simmons.
Tatum has been a key contributor to a Boston team exceeding expectations after losing Gordon Hayward six minutes into the season. Kuzma has been a walking bucket for a young and feisty Laker team. Mitchell hasn’t been nearly as efficient (and wow have Kuzma and Tatum been that) as those two, but he’s helped save could have easily been a lost season for the Jazz.
3. Frank Vogel won’t finish the season with Orlando
The Magic are tied with the Grizzlies -- who have already fired their coach -- with the worst point differential in the NBA over the last 15 games. Vogel’s chief offense is continuing to roll out lineup combinations that routinely get blitzed by opponents instead of shifting to ones that show some real promise (they mostly include veterans DJ Augustin and Arron Afflalo spliced in with current starters). If Vogel can’t at least make Orlando somewhat competitive in the near future, a new front office could make a change before the season wraps up.
4. Despite all the hand-wringing early on, Oklahoma City will be a top four team out West
From the start of the season to November 30th, the Thunder went 1-9 in games within five points with five minutes to play, per NBA.com. So far in December, they’re 7-1 in such situations. That helpful swing in variance has helped put a team in crisis to a team above .500 with a point differential of +2.5.
Look, the Thunder aren’t exactly the super team their list of stars suggested they would be at the start of the season. But they’re still a pretty good one. And after the Spurs, Rockets and Warriors, pretty good is probably enough to lock in that final spot in the top four.
Portland has been perfectly average despite playing the league’s 24th hardest schedule. Ditto for Denver Nuggets (25th) and that team also has issues at point guard. Minnesota has played the second easiest schedule in the league and already has to run their starters into the ground just to rack up wins.
So don’t be shocked when this Thunder team winds up right behind the West’s “Big Three” when it’s all said and done.
5. The Miami Heat will develop a Hassan Whiteside problem
The Heat are 5-3 (including an impressive win over Boston this week with a skeleton crew) since Whiteside’s knee injury compelled the team to move Kelly Olynyk into the starting lineup. Pairing Olynyk with rookie Bam Adebayo in Whiteside’s absence has given Miami a new, interesting dynamic in their frontcourt.
For the past couple seasons, Whiteside has produced marginal +/- returns despite the Heat mostly having a razor thin frontcourt rotation. In fact, two players on last year’s frontcourt roster (Josh McRoberts and Derrick Williams) aren’t even in the NBA anymore.
On top of that, Whiteside doesn’t do a lot of things needed from a 25+ minute a night frontcourt player anymore. He’s a slow, plodding roll man who can’t switch or aggressive show against pick-and-rolls. And if he’s not catching lobs, Whiteside’s presence puts him in or near the lane, clogging things up.
With Adebayo and Olynyk on the floor, you have two mobile bigs capable of playing both inside-and-out on offense. Adebayo is still a (young) rookie, so there are going to be some growing pains (shown in his point differential), but the potential of pairing him with Olynyk is quite evident. And if that potential starts to get realized, Miami will have a marginalized, big-money big man on their hands.
6. The Toronto Raptors will finish with the best record in the East
In part because of all the drama surrounding the Cavs and Celtics during the early part of the season, the Raptors have quietly snuck within striking distance of the league’s best record. In the process, Toronto has amassed the league’s third best point differential behind only Houston and Golden State. And before you think it’s just the byproduct of a soft schedule early on, know that Cleveland has actually played the league’s weakest schedule to date while Boston’s ranks juuust ahead of Toronto’s.
The emergence of rookie OG Anunoby as an outside threat and the addition of veteran free agent CJ Miles has created a deep, versatile roster filled with shooters and defenders around stars Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan -- the latter of which is sporting a career high in assists. This team is legit and their depth will garner a lot of regular season wins, likely enough to put them atop the East.
7. We still won’t be sure whether the Bledsoe trade actually made the Bucks better
Milwaukee was 4-6 pre-Bledsoe and 12-7 since he’s arrived so this seems a bit silly on its face. And 12-7 makes for a better winning percentage than 42-40, which the Bucks finished last season. This looks like a clear win.
But dig a little deeper and not much has actually changed. That .632 winning percentage doesn’t match up with Milwaukee’s point differential of +1.1 with Bledsoe -- a mark closer to a .500 team than a 52-win one (which is what a .632 winning percentage equates to). Still, it’s an improved mark from the Bucks -0.2 point differential from last year’s campaign.
It’s associating that improvement with Bledsoe where things get dicey. For starters, Giannis Antetokounmpo has gone from a really good player to a legitimate superstar posting career highs in virtually every category -- including huge upticks in points per game and PER. On top of that, Greg Monroe was out during Milwaukee’s slow start. So part of the original Bledsoe boost was likely just a result of swapping an injured rotation player (and a first round pick) for a healthy one.
Also, Bledsoe has swapped places with Malcolm Brogdon with a Milwaukee starting unit that has blitzed opponents and made it better. The problem is, he’s been a lot worse than Monroe anchoring non-Giannis lineups. When Monroe played and Giannis sat last year, the Bucks were +2.0 per 48. Milwaukee is -9.1 per 48 in the 105 minutes Bledsoe has played sans Giannis. Combine that the fact that lineups with backup big man Thon Maker have still struggled since the trade and it adds to the general “robbing Peter to pay Paul” vibe of this deal.
8. The Grizzlies will finish as the league’s worst team
Okay, okay, with only two teams technically below them in the standings this isn’t much of a stretch. But despite all their losing lately, Memphis actually has a better point differential than Sacramento, Phoenix, Chicago, Atlanta and Orlando. Mike Conley will also be back sometime in early January.
Yet it’s hard to imagine the Grizzlies pulling too far away from the bottom of the NBA. At 9-22, the playoffs are probably a pipe dream. Memphis is 7-5 with Conley this season. Even with pristine health and an uptick in performance once Conley returns in the new year, it’s hard to imagine getting to .500. And these additional 2-3 weeks Conley will be sidelined will likely see that hole dug even further.
Save for a big run upon Conley’s return, there won’t be much incentive for the Grizzlies to keep winning. Limiting or outright shutting down Conley along with Marc Gasol is a good possibility. And there’s even a scenario in which Memphis takes phone calls regarding the availability of their two stars.
With the Suns set to return Devin Booker, the Kings playing .500 basketball over their past ten games and the Hawks located in a conference with a few more winnable games, putting money on Memphis to capture the NBA’s most infamous honor is a good bet.
