Prospect Report: Trevon Duval Of Duke

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Prospect Report: Trevon Duval Of Duke 

Post#1 » by RealGM Articles » Sat Dec 23, 2017 1:51 pm

Trevon Duval was the top ranked point guard in the 2017 high school class [1] but hasn’t played as well as peers Collin Sexton and Trae Young over the first month-and-a-half of the season.


His job is more challenging, though.


Differently than Sexton, Duval has four other pro prospects out there on the court with him at Duke at any given time, needing to balance the need to keep everyone engaged. And differently than Young, he doesn’t get to monopolize possession of the ball, given the nature of Duke’s offense.


The 19-year-old [2] is responsible for triggering an attack that focuses more heavily on getting the wings catches on the side of the floor off screens and the big men touches in the low post. He handles the ball in high pick-and-roll a fair amount but no one will ever confuse this offense with the Houston Rockets’.


Duval has done a sufficient job keeping things moving as they should as Duke leads the country in adjusted offensive efficiency [3].


But his struggles as a scorer, especially against tougher competition, figure to tank his draft stock somewhat. He is averaging just 1.15 points per shot on 47.3% effective shooting [4].


On other end, Duval plays good individual defense and has a high steal average but is also part of a unity that has struggled to execute help defense principles and been picked apart by top end competition -- allowing more than a point per possession in the games against Michigan State, Florida, Indiana and Boston College.


Shot Creation


Duval is naturally inclined to speed up the pace of the game, either passing ahead or pushing the ball up the floor himself. With him at the wheel, Duke ranks 46th in the country in possessions per game [5]. He is fast in the open court and an explosive leaper off one foot with some space to take flight.


In the halfcourt, Duval has a combination of physicality and skill that has made it very tough to keep him from getting dribble penetration at the collegiate level, even though opponents can play off him due to his inability to make jumpers.


He keeps the ball in a string, has some bulk in his 186-pound frame to maintain his balance through contact against similarly sized players and an arsenal of dribble moves to get by the quickest types; in-and-out dribbles, crossovers and euro-steps to weave his way through traffic. 48.5% of his live ball attempts have come at the rim [6].


But despite not being known as a point guard whose priority was creating for others in high school, Duval has been asked to play as more of a distributor at Duke – posting only a 20.6% usage rate and assisting on 31.6% of Duke’s scores in his 396 minutes this season.


He can split double-teams at the point of attack to get downhill in middle high pick-and-roll but has also proven himself able to play with pace against hard shows, hedges and soft traps -- keeping his dribble alive and probing under the basket when a passing lane doesn’t present itself right away.


Duval can deliver well timed bounce passes or make wraparound passes to a big close by in traffic and hit the roll man over the top when the opponent cuts off his path to the lane. His decision making on the move has been solid as well, as he’s posted a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio.


Scoring


Duval doesn’t attack the rim with as much explosiveness in traffic as he does in the open court but can adjust his body in the air to score on reverses against lengthy defenders protecting the basket, though he struggles with his touch on left-hand finishes, which has proven to be a bigger problem against top end competition.


He has shot 62.5% at the rim overall this season but that number is down to 57.6% over 26 such attempts in the five games against Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Indiana and Boston College.


Duval also has room to improve in terms of getting to the foul line. He’s averaging 4.4 free throws per 40 minutes, which is a solid but somewhat underwhelming mark when you consider he’s taking almost half of his shots at the basket.


The number one priority in his development, however, needs to be fixing his jumper.


Duval has shot very poorly in college -- missing 20 of his 35 mid-range jumpers and 28 of his 33 three-point shots so far. Perhaps more troubling, he’s missed 17 of his 44 free throws as well.


His mechanics aren’t particularly fluid, given rising up and letting up the ball go seem disconnected. The launch point in his release is inconsistent. And he’s struggled with his touch.


Opponents help off him to double the post or pack the paint when Grayson Allen is handling the ball, sag off him in isolation and duck under the ball-screen in the pick-and-roll.


His offensive rating is second worst on the team among rotation players [7].


Defense


The six-foot-three guard has the quickness, good size and plays with enough effort to be expected to become at least an average defender on the ball.


Duval gets down in a stance and can slide side-to-side to stay in front. He doesn’t contain dribble penetration regularly but uses his six-foot-nine wingspan to reach around for some strips and contest shots effectively.


That length also opens up the possibility of him offering flexibility in terms of switch-ability and optionality (being tasked with defending true wings) but his 186-pound frame needs to mature some more for that to be the case, so he figures to be a one-position defender over his first few years in the league.  


In pick-and-roll defense, Duval is attentive enough icing the ball handler to try preventing him an easy path to using the ball-screen towards the middle of the floor and can get skinny to go over the pick.


Off the ball, he’s shown good instincts making plays in the passing lanes but is yet to prove himself able to execute the scheme and make an impact as a help defender. His defensive rebounding rate is disappointingly low too, even for a point guard on a team with two dominant big men rebounders.


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