Typically, there is a group of teams that are in a financial situation where using the trade deadline to add salary for the next season is actually a very good idea. This requires a few elements for their books the following season that are reasonably common in normal cap years (i.e. not a big spike like 2016):
- Being over the cap or close enough to it that using exceptions rather than cap space is preferable
- Having a comfortable margin between their current commitments and the luxury tax line, ideally enough to still use the Mid-Level exception and Bi-Annual exceptions that July should they choose to
- Possessing expiring contracts, ideally for non-essential players
Teams that have all three of those components can then wield that combination to extract assets from another team at the deadline by taking on some salary for the next season without much consequence. It looks like the Summer of 2018 will be an extremely shallow market for free agents, creating an even better opportunity for a front office in the right situation because the demand for taking on bad money is high and the supply of teams able to do it is low now and again in June/July.
Unfortunately, there are not any clear-cut teams that fit the bill this year, though there are a few intriguing options.
Evaluating and assessing the potential fits is more a process of elimination than anything. The place to start is with teams that have no interest taking on additional commitments beyond this season, typically due to concerns about the luxury tax. Amazingly, this group contains exactly half of the league: the Warriors, Thunder, Raptors, Wizards, Hornets, Rockets, Pelicans, Nuggets, Trail Blazers, Heat, Bucks, Pistons, Timberwolves, Magic and Spurs. These teams are also some of the best trade partners for those willing to take on 18-19 money, since it would help keep their finances in line. Of course, some will want to wait until the offseason to see where they stand but others already have a reasonably clear idea of what needs to be done.
Teams on the other side of the situation are also out, specifically the ones that already have cap space but would love to create more. As of now, it looks like the Lakers, 76ers, Bulls, Hawks and Mavericks are firmly in this camp. Dallas faces the most interesting choice of this group because they could use expiring contracts like Josh McRoberts and Nerlens Noel to pivot away from 2018 cap space but that appears unlikely at the moment.
The third group may be the most frustrating, as they arguably fulfill the much more challenging first two requirements but fail the third by having insufficient expiring salary. Assuming Enes Kanter picks up his $18.6 million player option, the Knicks will presumably function as an over the cap team next season without some big moves but have serious wiggle room under the tax line. Unfortunately, other than Doug McDermott and Kyle O’Quinn ($4.3 million player option), they have no one making over $3 million this season with an expiring contract so it is much harder for them to add 2018-19 salary without much bigger moves. Similarly, the Celtics will be on the fringe of the tax for 2018-19 but their expiring contracts, Marcus Smart and Aron Baynes, are important contributors to the team right now and thus unavailable for this kind of move.
Earlier in the season, it looked like the Nets could use Trevor Booker’s expiring contract to add value through 2018-19 salary but their front office decided to use that asset to take chances on Jahlil Okafor and Nik Stauskas instead, which was the subject of a previous piece.
That leaves seven teams as potential fits for this niche, though a few of them likely do not see themselves this way and others have different priorities.
After making long-term commitments to Blake Griffin and Danilo Gallinari in the offseason, the Clippers cannot reasonably expect to create and use cap space this summer even if their free agents head elsewhere. That means one potential way to build a stronger asset base for the future is to incorporate adding 18-19 salary in trades involving Lou Williams and/or DeAndre Jordan. Those players are good enough to drive interest on their own but their front office should consider taking on long-term salary for a superior return.
Similarly, the Jazz (Derrick Favors and Joe Johnson), Suns (Greg Monroe) and Kings (Vince Carter) could all have small amounts of cap space this summer depending on option/non-guarantee decisions but may be better served giving it up now for the right offer. For example, the Wizards could save around $12 million to $15 million in luxury tax payments, $10.5 million in salary and additional money by unloading Jason Smith, who makes less than $5.5 million per season. If Washington is willing to give up a first for those savings, potentially increased meaningfully by adding Sheldon Mac and/or Chris McCullough, any one of them should jump on the opportunity.
The single most interesting team in the entire league for this situation is the Cavs. Channing Frye is on a $7.4 million expiring contract and Cleveland will not have cap space this offseason even if LeBron James leaves. As such, a trade that ships Frye to another team for a more useful player with an additional year on his contract makes them better this season without sacrificing the Nets pick and only adds to their potential tax burden in 18-19 if James sticks around.
One last franchise to mention is the Pacers, who could go in a series of different directions because of their unusual mix of player options and partial guarantees. A preemptive move using Al Jefferson’s partially guaranteed contract for next season could allow them to get better for a playoff push.
The most likely outcome is that it takes the league another year or two to get their books in order to make this variety of trade more prevalent. Even so, a few will have a meaningful opportunity worth considering this February.