Each NBA postseason, familiar patterns emerge. Favorites cruise (Wolves-Rockets and Warriors-Spurs are already over), the middle class wear each other out (Sixers-Heat, Jazz-Thunder, and Blazers-Pels could all go the distance), and young stars bloom or fade (Anthony Davis and Victor Oladipo on one end of the spectrum, Karl Anthony-Towns on the other). The teams and players involved change, but the arcs, at least, are familiar.
For instance: the Indiana Pacers jumped a dazed Cleveland team in Game 1 of their opening round matchup, then lost Game 2. The Cavs’ win on Wednesday night was easy to predict, not only because they have LeBron James and one of the best offenses in the league, but because this sort of thing happens all the time. An underdog who takes one of the first two games of a series off a heavy favorite almost always feels the favorite’s wrath in the following contest. In 2015, LeBron’s Cavs dropped Game 1 of the Eastern Semis to the Bulls 99-92 and smashed them 106-91 two nights later. In 2005, the Young Melo Nuggets stole the opening game of their first round series against the Spurs, who then beat them by 28 in Game 2. The ‘97 Bulls lost Game 2 of their second round matchup with the Hawks, traveled to Atlanta, and won decisively 100-80. You get idea; this bear-poking scenario has played out many times since the advent of the 2-2-1-1-1 format.
What’s remarkable about the Pacers’ nigh-inevitable Game 2 loss is that it was by a mere three points. (In part due to a meaningless buzzer-beating three from Victor Oladipo, but still.) They didn’t get slaughtered after their surprise victory. The Cavs blew them out in the opening quarter of Game 2—really, LeBron blew them out, scoring his team’s first 16 points—but they chipped away at the Cleveland lead throughout the rest of the contest. Oladipo, who sat out most of the first period due to picking up two quick fouls, was plus-11 on the night and the Indiana defense held the Cavs’ non-LeBron starters to 13-for-32 shooting. If the Pacers aren’t exactly now favorites to win the series, they’re very much in it, which is a minor surprise.
It would be disingenuous to say that this doesn’t have a lot to do with the Cavs being severely weaker than they have been over the past few seasons. Kevin Love has shot horribly over two games. George Hill is well and truly washed up. The same is basically true of J.R. Smith. Rodney Hood is theoretically the Cavs’ third-best scorer and in practice looks shook as a hen in a foxhole. Jeff Green poses a paradox: is it possible to expect someone to disappoint you? Jose Calderon is 36 years old and getting significant minutes. If this team makes it to another Finals, it will be almost solely due to LeBron James’s genius. If you swapped out LeBron for, say, Russell Westbrook, these Cavs likely wouldn’t make it past the second round.
With that said, the Pacers are more legitimate than they were a week ago and in decent position to upset the Cavs, which is remarkable considering everyone—including, Kevin Pritchard disclosed in a sideline interview during Game 1, Indiana’s coaching staff and front office—assumed they were headed for the lottery after trading away Paul George for Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis. One NBA exec talking to Tim MacMahon called the deal a salary dump, which seemed like a fair assessment at the time.
Our opinions on teams and players are always late. When we mark them ascendant, it means they’ve been that way for a while. When they fall off, it takes us some time to notice. There’s also usually a point at which we second-guess ourselves. Wait, is that guy actually great or is he just having a great year? We’re well past thinking of the Pacers as Eastern Conference chum or understanding Oladipo as a failed Westbrook sidekick, but there is something about seeing a new star and his running mates perform in the playoffs that reaffirms our still relatively new ideas about what they are and what they can accomplish. When James Harden got traded from Oklahoma City to Houston, he was impressive right away, but because his shooting stroke was off in the Rockets’ opening round series against the Thunder that season, it took another excellent regular season from him for the popular perception of James Harden, Superstar to fully reify itself. Through two games against Cleveland, Oladipo is more or less confirming that, yes, he is indeed spectacular. He gives away no sign of nerves and the Cavs can’t figure out how to trouble him. And with him cooking, the Pacers are, at worst, a pesky foe.
It’s possible they’re better than that, and highly probable, given that Oladipo is 25 and Myles Turner is 22, that they can improve in the coming years. But that’s a concern for the summer ahead, a happy thought to keep in your back pocket if you’re an Indiana fan. The playoffs are an intensely immediate experience, and at this very moment, the Pacers have taken home court advantage off of the three-time defending Eastern Conference champs. This has meaning by itself. We know for sure what the Pacers can do, and it’s serious stuff. From here forward, with excitement and just enough calm, maybe they’ll show us they have even more to give.
