It has become common practice for Kentucky guards to out-perform their draft positions, and a very sound argument can be made that some of John Calipari’s Wildcats prospects were drafted far too late to begin with. The reality is that Kentucky’s teams are so loaded with talent that it can be hard for some prospects to showcase their full skill sets.
The most recent examples that come to mind are Tyrese Maxey and Immanuel Quickley, who have both emerged as big time NBA players despite being picked outside the lottery. Cason Wallace likely won’t suffer that same fate as he’s currently projected to be a lottery pick. But when you break down his game, it's hard not to think that he’s being undervalued a bit — which might have something to do with his pedestrian 11.7 points and 4.3 assists per game last season. Wallace has borderline All-Star potential, and I think he’s worthy of top-five consideration.
Wallace just might be the best point-of-attack defender in this class. He has the footspeed required to give quicker guards trouble, and he also has an absurd amount of strength when he’s in a defensive stance. A lot of people love Jrue Holiday’s ability to go chest to chest with some of the NBA’s best guards, and Wallace will bring some of that right off the bat. In the best way possible, Wallace is just a menace as a backcourt defender. And not only is he great on the ball, but he’s also excellent at getting into passing lanes and getting his hands on the basketball. He should rack up steals in the NBA, but he’ll do so in an organized way. Wallace can create chaos for opponents, but he doesn’t sacrifice his team’s identity to do it. He takes calculated risks.
Wallace’s defensive metrics also backed up the eye test last season. He had a Defensive Box Plus Minus of 4.2 and a Defensive Win Shares of 1.6 last year, according to Sports Reference. Only 10 other players have hit those marks in their freshman years while also playing at least 30.0 minutes per game. That list happens to include Marcus Smart and Bruce Brown, who are both superb NBA defenders.
Wallace is also a player with all the tools to be a stud offensively, and that starts with a pro-ready jumper. Wallace’s three-point percentage dipped as his freshman season went on, but it’s hard to worry much about his shot. The 19-year-old looked extremely comfortable in catch-and-shoot situations last year, and he has a picture-perfect release. Considering his mechanics, it’s just hard to picture him not being a guy that flirts with 40.0% shooting from behind the three-point line at some point. Wallace had 14 games in which he hit at least two triples at Kentucky, and NBA coaching staffs should be able to clean up any issues he has and turn him into a knockdown shooter.
The jumper isn’t the only thing that Wallace has offensively though. The 19-year-old is also an explosive driver, at least when it comes to straight line drives to the basket. Wallace glides to the rim and uses his big body to muscle smaller defenders out of the way. He’s a strong finisher once he gets there, and he also started to draw more fouls in the second half of the season. When you combine the jumper with his ability to attack closeouts and off-balance defenders, you’re already looking at a useful offensive player. Wallace just needs to tune things up a bit with the rest of his offensive package in order to take another step.
The place where people really start to nitpick Wallace’s game is shot creation. Can he beat guys off the dribble, and can he shoot off the dribble? So far, he hasn’t done either at a high level. But this is where the Kentucky fit comes in. The Wildcats haven’t been a team that has spaced the floor very well under Calipari, and that has made it hard for players to really show what they can do in space. That’s part of the reason why a lot of Kentucky players go to another level when they get to the NBA. The spacing is just so much better, giving high-level players the room to create. With that said, Wallace might look like a completely different player in the pros. And for my money, I think that’ll be the case.
Even if Wallace’s on-ball scoring chops aren’t quite there, he just does so much to help a basketball team. On top of the elite-level defense, the ability to shoot it from deep and his propensity for pressuring the rim, Wallace is also a guy that can create for his teammates. He spent a lot of time playing the point for the Wildcats, and there’s a good chance he’ll do the same in the NBA. Wallace is just a guy that can immediately help a lot of basketball teams, and he's going to be a chameleon in the pros when it comes to fit. But what I love about Wallace is that his game is tailor-made for postseason basketball. Wallace is a guy that should directly impact winning, and that alone makes him somebody that lottery teams should covet. When you combine that with his tantalizing upside, there’s a lot to like here.