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Carlton “Bub” Carrington wasn’t on a lot of draft radars heading into his freshman season. The 6’4’’ guard committed to the Pittsburgh Panthers as a four-star recruit in ESPN’s system. And there weren’t a lot of people that expected him to become a one-and-done prospect. Well, Carrington did just that. In the 23-24 college basketball season, Carrington averaged 13.8 points, 5.2 rebounds and 4.1 assists per game. He also flashed some of the most impressive on-ball ability of anybody in this draft class. That’s why Carrington is now viewed as a first-round lock, and potentially even a lottery pick.

Carrington was one of the focal points of the opposing team’s scouting report on a nightly basis, but it didn’t really matter. Carrington, who is likely going to be the youngest college prospect selected in the 2024 NBA Draft, has too much off-the-bounce game to care about what’s in front of him. And while isolation scoring is less of a commodity than it used to be, players that can do it at this high of a level have a place in NBA rotations. Just look at Brooklyn Nets guard Cam Thomas, who is one of the most polarizing players in the league. A lot of people are highly critical of Thomas’ game, but he’s simply too good of a shot creator to keep on the bench. Carrington has that type of scoring ability.

Carrington might love his jumper more than any player in the draft, which is interesting considering he mostly shoots them off the dribble. He likes to shake and bake along the perimeter until he gets a sliver of space to fire away, which sometimes means he’s shooting over a decent contest from the defender. But that doesn’t really matter. When Carrington is pulling up off the dribble, good things are generally happening. In fact, Carrington scored 0.99 points per possession on dribble jumpers last season, which put him in the 83rd percentile in college basketball. That was good for an “excellent” classification by Synergy Sports, which also had him as “very good” in isolation.

Carrington is as good at creating space for himself as anybody in this class, whether it’s with crossovers, side steps or step backs. Whenever he puts the ball on the floor and looks to hunt his mid-range look, he’s capable of getting a decent one. That’s as valuable a skill as there is at the next level. Sure, every team in the league is looking for 3-and-D wings, forwards with ball handling ability and centers that can space the floor and hold their own defensively on the perimeter. But microwave scorers and bucket getters were devalued a little somewhere along the way, and every team needs them. Well, Carrington is going to satisfy that need for somebody, while also providing a little more.

Calling Carrington a scorer almost feels a little misguided, as he’s also a guy that can create for his teammates. As previously mentioned, Carrington averaged 4.1 assists per game last season, which was a good number considering the lack of talent around him. Outside of Blake Hinson, Pittsburgh really didn’t have much. And a mediocre supporting cast probably had a lot to do with the amount of tough shots Carrington took last season. But it was good that he was put in a position where he was able to explore creating offense for himself with very few restrictions. And the fact that he was still able to show off his passing chops in an odd situation says a lot about him.

Carrington is probably a player that should play primarily shooting guard in the NBA, but he’s definitely capable of handling a significant on-ball role. He proved that he’s a legitimate combo guard at the high school and collegiate levels, where he was able to make every pass in the book. Carrington can hit cutters, find teammates for lobs and also whip passes around to open shooters. And he’s also pretty good at using his off-the-dribble ability to lure extra defenders in and create advantages for his teammates. That’s something that separates him from some of the other heat-check scorers in the NBA.

Realistically, Carrington’s ability to hit off-balance jumpers and be a tough-shot maker, while also providing a little extra passing, will make him a very good offensive player in the league. And there’s also room for him to improve.

Carrington did not shoot the three very well in college, and Synergy Sports had him as a “below average” option on unguarded catch-and-shoot opportunities. But it feels like Carrington is bound to be a good shooter eventually. He has an extremely smooth looking jumper, with a quick and high release. And he generally displays great touch on his shots. That, combined with the fact that he shot 78.5% from the free throw line, indicates there’s real room for improvement for Carrington as a spot-up shooter. It almost feels like he has become so used to being guarded that he needs to train himself to slow down and take advantage of being left alone.

Carrington should also be able to grow a little as a driver. Carrington didn’t finish at a good clip as a freshman, and he also didn’t go to the basket very often. He is much more comfortable pulling up in the mid-range area. But Carrington’s ability to create space should also allow him to beat his man off the bounce, especially considering he’s lengthy for a guard — he has a 6’8’’ wingspan — and is a pretty underrated athlete. That said, look for his next coaching staff to drill into him that he’s capable of exploding and getting to the rim for easy buckets sometimes. That could also come with a little added strength, as he’s extremely thin and has a lot of room to add muscle.

Another good thing about Carrington is that he’s not a terrible defender. His lack of strength definitely hurts him a little, and he’s not going to rack up steals. But his height and length should make it hard to target him at the next level, especially considering he competes on that end of the floor.

There’s just a lot that Carrington will be able to immediately bring to an NBA organization, even if he’s asked to be an instant offense player off the bench. But it’s also hard not to like his long-term outlook as a player with the unteachable ability to create offense for himself — while also being a threat to make plays for others. If the jumper develops and he’s put in a healthy environment, he has the potential to be an absolute stud. That upside is why he has been one of the biggest risers in this class, and those types of players don’t generally have high floors too.

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