Since poaching executive Tim Connelly from the Denver Nuggets, the Minnesota Timberwolves have consistently been ahead of the league’s shifts. Their much-derided trade for Rudy Gobert has laid the blueprint for the best and most imitated defense in the NBA. With this move, they ushered in the NBA’s current era of Large Ball, prioritizing size and ground coverage over pure switchability. For large stretches of last season, they were the best team in the Western Conference; the sole obstacle separating them from the first Finals berth in team history was some of the sharpest basketball of Luka Doncic’s career. Now, after adding Rob Dillingham, they proved that they’re really, truly wit da shifts.
By cashing in their few remaining assets to move up to the ninth pick, the Timberwolves were able to select Dillingham, the kind of promising prospect that the NBA Draft usually precludes top teams from landing. In doing so, they became the first team to make a top ten draft pick and the Conference Finals in the same calendar year since the 2017 Boston Celtics.
With Dillingham, the Timberwolves have their potential point guard of the future, a talented young player who can apprentice under Mike Conley before eventually supplanting him. Despite having the slender build of a marathoner, Dillingham was one of the most electric players in college basketball. During his lone year at Kentucky, Dillingham was named SEC Sixth Man of the Year, averaging 15.2 points and 3.9 assists in just 23.5 minutes per game.
If Dillingham is ever beset by moments of self-doubt or imposter syndrome, he certainly doesn’t show it. More than any other player in this draft, Dillingham plays with a necessary degree of chutzpah. Whereas bigger, more athletic players have the privilege of playing conservatively, Dillingham can only succeed by actively manifesting his own success. Accordingly, his flashiness is inseparable from his functionality. Since Dillingham can’t buffalo his way to the rim, he’s become a sharp, inventive ball handler to compensate. His unbalanced, quick-fire jumpers aren’t just a stylistic flourish, but a way to launch jumpers over bigger defenders without taking precious seconds to square his feet.
Although Dillingham is too slight and too uninhibited to contribute much to the Timberwolves’ title hopes this year, he injects some long-term upside to a team that needs it. Even though Minnesota mustered enough scoring to beat the Suns and Nuggets, they were ultimately undone by their own scruffy, uninspiring offense. During the regular season, Minnesota’s 115.9 offensive rating was the lowest of any team to make the playoffs in the West.
Subsequently, outside of Anthony Edwards, no other Timberwolf averaged more than 20 points per game in the playoffs. More damning, Edwards, for all his scoring prowess, is a largely self-contained offensive force. Since Edwards can’t yet pass like Luka Doncic or worm his way to the rim like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the impact of his scoring doesn’t provide many secondary benefits for the rest of the offense besides the fact that he can score a bunch of points. By hitting lots of hard shots himself, Edwards doesn’t necessarily create easier ones for his teammates.
Fortunately, Dillingham is the kind of daring passer and shooter who could one day enliven the staid Timberwolves’ offense. At Kentucky, Dillingham was one of the best pick-and-roll ball handlers in college basketball, scoring 1.03 points per possession, finishing in the 90th percentile nationwide. In contrast, the Timberwolves’ pick-and-roll ball handlers scrounged up 0.89 points per possession collectively and combined for just 13.9 points per game on the playtype, the fifth lowest in the league. Similarly, Dillingham is a phenomenal shooter off the dribble, nailing 37.9 percent of his pull-up threes last year, which would’ve been the second-most accurate mark on Minnesota after Mike Conley.
Crucially, trading for Dillingham isn’t merely a savvy basketball move, it’s a clever piece of front office statecraft. With Edwards’ new contract tipping them over the second apron this season and key role players like Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Naz Reid up for big raises next summer, the Timberwolves have no real ability to sign or trade for new players going forward.
As such, Dillingham represents Minnesota’s best and last chance to acquire high-level talent that will complement their current roster. If he’s the star Minnesota hopes he’ll be, he could soon blossom into a player who can bridge the distance between being a Conference Finalist and a Finalist. But if he isn’t good enough fast enough, he’ll be a cautionary tale of the perils of prioritizing an imagined future over a possible present.
At this point, it’s easier for the Timberwolves to get worse than it is for them to get better.
Like all second-aproneers, the most they can hope for their core rotation is tempered decay. In this sense, the only way Minnesota can reach their potential is if Dillingham can quickly reach his. For Dilly, there’s no time to, well, dally.