Tre Johnson is coming off a strong freshman season for Texas. The 6-foot-6 guard averaged 19.9 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists per game for a Longhorns team that won 19 games and made the NCAA Tournament — despite playing in the SEC, the toughest conference in college basketball. It also didn't take very long for the 19-year-old to showcase his electric shot-making ability, as he scored 29 points in his college debut against Ohio State.
Johnson does have his detractors. Many draft analysts and scouts don't like a score-first mentality, especially when it's coupled with some lackluster play on the other end of the floor. However, Johnson has great size for an off-ball guard and can make tough shots. There's something special about the way he plays the game, and players like him generally tend to pan out. That's why Johnson will likely be a top-10 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft, and it really shouldn't surprise anybody if he ends up being exceptionally good at the next level.
There's currently a premium on wings that can impact games on both ends of the floor, make plays for others, and fit seamlessly into a team setting. It isn't hard to understand why. However, the pre-draft process can occasionally ice out players with certain skill sets. In 2021, Cam Thomas, a microwave scorer that has mostly played well at the NBA level, had to wait until the 27th pick in the draft to hear his name called. Thomas and Johnson are similar players. They're both three-level scorers that can do outrageous things as off-the-dribble shooters, and they're the types of guys you want to have the ball late in the shot clock. Luckily for Johnson, he's three inches taller than Thomas, and that should ultimately prevent him from experiencing a similar slide on draft night. But the discourse surrounding the two of them is similar, and it's infuriating. The term "hooper" tends to carry a negative connotation these days, but that's what both guys are. And in some instances, it should be viewed as a compliment.
With Johnson, there's just so much that should immediately work in the pros. The jumper is one thing that's undeniable. Johnson shot 39.7% from deep as a freshman, despite facing some great defenses. He also did it as the No. 1 option on his team, so it's not like he regularly got quality looks. But Johnson consistently buried his open catch-and-shoot triples. And that should be a strength of his in the NBA, as he sports a nice, high release. Having that with good size and length at the shooting guard position is always good. He's also an 87.1% free throw shooter, which does a good job of backing up the three-point percentage and eye test when it comes to evaluating his shot and mechanics.
Johnson is also tremendous at creating space for himself to launch jumpers. For a player his age, he's extremely advanced when it comes to utilizing jab steps, and he has an awesome step-back jumper that you generally only see from the very best players the NBA has to offer. Johnson is also just comfortable shooting with a hand in his face, which also says a lot about the type of scorer he can be.
The real knocks on Johnson offensively are that he doesn't get much going at the rim and he can be guilty of having tunnel vision. However, all of the negativity surrounding his game feels a bit overblown. There are a bunch of high-level offensive players in the NBA that don't do a lot of their damage attacking the basket, and Johnson should actually get better at going downhill in the pros. Some of that will come naturally with him playing in more space and not being the first bullet point on the opposing team's scouting report.
Johnson has also flashed the ability to create for others, even if it's not a huge part of his game right now. He makes some great plays finding teammates streaking up the floor, which generally means he's keeping his head up and looking for opportunities. Johnson is also more than capable of making every pass you'd look for from a ball-dominant combo guard. Sure, an elite NBA offense probably won't feature him as the team's primary creator, but that's really not part of his elevator pitch anyway. Johnson ideally should play next to a good decision maker, but he's absolutely capable of being a secondary or tertiary playmaker.
It's also hard to completely criticize Johnson's defense. He's not a lockdown option or a particularly reliable team defender right now. But he does have good size for a two-guard, and his Defensive Box Plus-Minus was in the green as a freshman (according to Bart Torvik). He's probably never going to be a positive on that end of the floor, but he might not be a highly targeted player either. That's reserved for undersized guards and miserable athletes. Johnson doesn't qualify as either. Not only is he 6-foot-6, but he has a reported 6-foot-10 wingspan. He's also an above-average athlete.
Realistically, putting any player under a microscope is a dangerous proposition, and you're going to hear people pointing out the red flags for Johnson as June approaches. But when you're 6-foot-6, can shoot the three-ball, and can make tough shots, there's a place for you in the NBA. Look at how many teams are desperate for somebody like that right now. Johnson should find himself in a nice spot that values what he brings on offense, and he should immediately provide his next team with some firepower. But keep an eye on some of his perceived weaknesses moving forward. If he is even a little better than people think as a playmaker, there's All-Star potential here.