We’re one week into the NBA season, which means it’s the perfect time for overreactions! You know what it is. Let’s jump in.
Victor Wembanyama could win MVP and DPOY: After a summer spent hanging out with Shaolin monks and putting on muscle, Wembanyama is off to a historic start, becoming the first player in NBA history to record at least 100 points and 15 blocks in his first three games.
In less than a week, Wembanyama dazzled in a 40-point season opener complete with step-back 3s, reverse dunks and turnaround, baseline jumpers. Two nights later, he recorded nine blocks, coming one shy of a triple-double with 29 points and 11 rebounds. On Sunday, he went 3 for 6 from beyond the arc and sprinkled in six more blocks for good measure.
The Spurs are 3-0 and Wembanyama ranks in the top five in Estimated Plus-Minus, alongside former MVPs Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Luka Doncic. He also ranked first in Defensive Estimated Plus-Minus.
Wembanyama entered the season as the overwhelming favorite to nab his first Defensive Player of the Year award, but he also looks like a candidate for MVP votes this season – if he and the Spurs can keep this up.
With a chance to push for the playoffs, Wemby is leaning forward in the gamer chair. There’s less eff it, Tyreek down there somewhere-type possessions from Wembanyama, who spent the better part of his first two seasons trying stuff (and rarely failing at said stuff) on offense.
Having seemingly gotten that out of his system, Wembanyama is valuing possessions more. Through three games, he’s attempted 11 threes and has gotten to the line 30 times, compared to 18 threes and 16 free throws in his first three games of last season. He’s passing up decent shots to pass to teammates, set screens and roll to the rim. He’s dialed into defensive rebounding more than ever before.
Everyone knew Wembanyama would be a problem when he started polishing the rougher corners of his game. It appears we may already be there.
The Boston Celtics will miss the playoffs: The Celtics lost their first three games to start the season and it’s easy to see why. The Celtics rank dead last in defensive rebounding rate. Even when they get stops, their opponent has often gotten a second chance. On Sunday, the Pistons hauled in 47% of their missed shots, basically turning one of every two missed shots into an extra possession. It’s hard to win games that way.
It’s also an underrated part of Mazzulla Ball. Some people think it’s just about shooting a ton of threes, but that’s only part of the formula. (After all, the Bulls took more than 40 threes per game last season and they stunk.) To create the math advantage, the Celtics also limited the other team’s scoring chances by keeping turnovers and fouls to a minimum and ending possessions with rebounds. In addition to leading the league in three-point makes, the Celtics ranked seventh in defensive rebounding rate, second in turnover percentage and first in opponent free-throw attempts. Take away one of those threads and the whole sweater comes undone.
It doesn’t help that the Celtics are shooting just 31% on threes so far, but they are also fouling a ton (25th in opponent free throws). Defensively, it’s a parade of trips to the line and second chances.
The good news: The shooting will get better and they are still taking care of the ball (second in turnover rate). If they can clean up the boards and stop fouling so much, they should be in good shape. But that’s a tall ask from a group that lost its top three rebounders and its most experienced defenders and replaced them with journeymen.
Erik Spoelstra fixed the Heat’s offense: Don’t look now, but the Heat are the fastest team in the league. That’s right, the same Heat that has ranked in the bottom 10 in pace every season since (checks notes) 2012 – the year of Vine, Linsanity and Gangnam Style.
Only, this isn’t the same Heat team. They’re in their post-Jimmy Butler era, where it’s about racing down the court, finding a player with a scrambled mismatch, giving him the ball and getting out of the way. Only three teams average fewer passes than Miami, and the Heat are literally running faster than any other team on offense.
It suits a new-look roster that, seemingly overnight, transformed from the one built around veterans and undrafted success stories playing in the 2023 Finals to one that is young and stuffed with first-round picks. Players like Nikola Jovic, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Kel’el Ware and Davion Mitchell want to get out and run. Norm Powell, Andrew Wiggins and Bam Adebayo are underrated athletes who can play fast. Spoelstra threw the old playbook in the recycling bin and replaced it with a simple mantra: Run.
Scouts have talked about how difficult it is to prepare for Miami’s offense because Spoelstra is calling fewer plays. They’re also running fewer ball screens than any team, waiving away the league’s bread-and-butter like they’re on the keto diet. Over the last couple of years, the Indiana Pacers got a jump on the NBA with their pace. The Heat are attempting to take that lesson and run with it. They are 12th in offensive rating, up from 27th last season.
The Orlando Magic are cursed: A year ago, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was lauded as one of the best offseason acquisitions. A perfect fit in Orlando because of his ability to make threes and defend. Sound familiar? It’s a copy-and-paste job for what was said about Desmond Bane. Yes, Bane is (a) younger and (b) better than Caldwell-Pope, but the idea is the same. A proven shooter who can space the floor around Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner while not taking away too much of Orlando’s defensive identity.
KCP entered his first season with Orlando as a career 37% three-point shooter. He shot 34% with the Magic last season. Bane, a career 41% three-point shooter, is making less than 27% through three games.
Again, these are overreactions, but it’s funny to consider that maybe the Magic are cursed when it comes to acquiring shooting specialists. I’m scared to think about what would happen if they traded for Steph Curry! (Probably nothing.)
Houston has a spacing problem: Speaking of three-point shooting… that would be a first for the Houston Rockets.
Only five teams are attempting fewer threes per possession than the Rockets. The difference between the Rockets and some of those teams (with all due respect to the Raptors, Bulls and Pelicans) is that the Rockets are considered fringe title contenders.
This shouldn’t be that surprising, considering how the Rockets are built. They are huge and netted out as the 12th-most efficient offense last season because of their knack for gobbling up second-chance points. Now, they are still No. 1 in second-chance points, but have plummeted to 24th in offensive rating and are taking fewer threes and shots at the rim than a season ago. The difference in the numbers may seem marginal, but that’s the finicky nature of NBA offenses. Small turns of the dial one way or the other can have huge ripple effects on overall efficiency.
They’ve traded too many efficient shots (threes and shots at the rim) for inefficient mid-range jumpers. Is this the Kevin Durant effect? Perhaps, but Durant’s mid-range jumpers are the rare ones that tend to lead to efficient offense.
But Durant is also averaging just 3.5 three-point attempts per game, the lowest since his second year in the league. The fix seems easy enough if Durant goes back to averaging the six three-point attempts he took last season. But that might be easier said than done because of the lack of spacing around Durant. The Rockets have some things to figure out because 24th isn’t gonna cut it for a Finals team.
This is the best rookie class since 2003: Cooper Flagg, VJ Edgecombe, Dylan Harper, Ace Bailey, Tre Johnson, Cedrick Coward… they’ve all looked great in their first week. And that’s leaving off a few deserving names.
After a rough debut, Flagg looks much more comfortable. (Turns out playing point guard for the first time in your career while being defended by Wembanyama is difficult!) He dunked approximately 157 times against the Raptors on Sunday, is getting to his spots for his jumper and appears to have a better handle on how to be aggressive at the wheel of the Mavericks offense.
Edgecombe might be the most impactful player in his class right now. His athleticism stands out on a shockingly not-athletic 76ers team, but so does his unselfishness and ability to move without the ball. Edgecombe is already an elite cutter and is just as comfortable playing with pace with the ball in his hands. He doesn’t wait for the game to come to him, he makes things happen. It’s a skill I like to call “doing stuff.” Not all players do. Edgecombe does stuff.
Coward looks like the steal of the draft so far. There’s an opportunistic quality to his game that reminds of early-career Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard. He’s efficient in the way that he doesn’t waste movements. He just knows how to play.
Getting later into the draft, Hugo Gonzalez, Asa Newell and Ryan Kalkbrenner look like rotation-level finds.
And we’re only a week in. Other rookies will pop and the ones we already like will only get better. This was a highly-touted draft class, but it may not have been hyped enough.