Lowe: Milwaukee Misses the Playoffs

[BobbyLight]

As always, Zach Lowe is a great read and this is one of his predictions for the year. We may have opined about the playoffs elsewhere, but I think it's an interested topic and it's worth reading into what Lowe says.

FWIW, I think it's entirely possible we miss the playoffs as we take the year to adjust to all the changes but if I had to put money on it, I think we're actually pretty easily in the playoffs. I can just see a few things not going perfectly which would leave us out. Maybe Jabari never can play more than 20 minutes a game (this year), maybe Monroe really drags the defense down like others think he will think or maybe the vets we've replaced are missed and offered more than Vasquez/Copeland can going forward.

I’m smelling a small and temporary step back for one of the league’s most exciting franchises. Michael Carter-Williams got too much blame for Milwaukee’s mini-collapse after the stunning deadline swap of Brandon Knight; Milwaukee outscored opponents by 6.4 points per 100 possessions with Carter-Williams on the floor during the regular season, per NBA.com. A lot of the late-season falloff, especially on offense, resulted from injuries and other issues with a peppy veteran bench.

But the team’s offense cratered during the playoffs, and there may not be enough shooting when Carter-Williams and Giannis Antetokounmpo share the floor with a traditional big man — Greg Monroe or John Henson. Jabari Parker should provide some airspace as a stretch power forward, but he’s played 25 NBA games and is coming back from an ACL tear. We should expect him to struggle for a bit, especially on defense, where he looked out of sorts — like most rookies. Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley were key ball-movers, and the Bucks dumped them for zilch.

Greivis Vasquez represents a key late-game option, beside Carter-Williams or in his place, and you know Jason Kidd will get funky with small-ball lineups. Monroe’s post game is a fail-safe, provided the Bucks can enter him the ball.

If scoring is a grind, the Bucks won’t be able to afford much slippage on defense after finishing a shocking no. 2 in points allowed per possession. Monroe isn’t as bad on that end as his reputation, and the Bucks got by last season without a rim-protecting center in the starting lineup. But Monroe is not quite as heady as Pachulia, and Milwaukee’s helter-skelter system isn’t catching anyone by surprise. That scheme surrendered a ton of 3s last season, including a league-high 7.9 corner 3s per game, and things could spin in the wrong direction if opponents shoot a little better.

Plus, this team is just so damn young.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/35-crazy-predictions-for-the-2015-16-nba-season/

[ReasonablySober]

I think we make the playoffs, probably comfortably, if three things happen:

1 - Giannis takes another leap. Doesn't have to be an all-star, but he needs to continue to defend well, stay on the court and be a quality 3rd scorer.

2 - Parker returns and gives positive minutes.

3 - Monroe is a rich man's Zaza. Dominates the boards, doesn't stop ball movement and facilitates on the elbow.

I think all three need to happen.

[paulpressey25]

If we don't make the playoffs, then two of these four guys will have fallen much below expectations.

Jabari
Giannis
Middleton
Monroe

I have a hard time seeing us not win 45 games and get at least the 8th seed.

[tydett]

Read this earlier, and I'm not really sure how this is possible, unless we really believe that Midds, Giannis, Jabari, Monroe and even Henson or MCW haven't improved at all. The reason that the Bucks' offense cratered was because guys like Dudley and Zaza and Ersan gave them next to nothing after providing signs of life, even excellence early on. Honestly, if the Bucks miss the playoffs, we have much bigger concerns to address than losing vets like Dudley and Pachulia.

[DingleJerry]

Should be noted that this was in his "Crazy Predictions" article so he's kind of acknowledging this as a minority opinion and a very good shot at being wrong. I don't think he says anything wrong or rips the team or anything.

I really do think it's possible they don't, but I'd say 70/30 they make it. Keep in mind the east is much improved. Atl, Cle, Mia, Tor, Was, Chicago are near locks to make the playoffs, leaving only two spots.

[Badgerlander]

Pacers taking our place seems even more improbable than us missing the playoffs.

[bucksfansince88]

I just dont see 8 teams in the east that are better than the bucks.

[chonestown]

Love Zach Lowe, but he also cops to being a fan of Stacey King's mic skills. He is not infallible.

[BobbyLight]

He also ranks us as the 18th most watchable League Pass team. I disagree with his assertions that we won't make the playoffs, but I have an easier time seeing that than thinking we are less fun to watch than the Celtics, Raptors, Knicks, Dallas... I'd probably put us above the Grizz in his rankings as well. I guess it's because defense isn't always fun to watch... but Giannis, man.... Giannis.

Gus Johnson! An alternate court! Gorgeous new uniforms and logos! The Greek Freak dribbling the whole court in three strides and gyro-stepping with Jabari Parker! It’s all happening for Milwaukee, the NBA’s random “it” team of the moment, but the Bucks are more a hoops curiosity than a stylistically reliable team — at least on offense.

They dealt away two veteran ball movers, Zaza Pachulia and Jared Dudley, for nothing, and recalibrated around two tricky pieces in Michael Carter-Williams and Greg Monroe — a point guard who can’t shoot and a slow-footed post bully who might struggle scrambling in Jason Kidd’s frenzied defense. They may not have enough shooting and overall polish to be as fun to watch as they look on paper.

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-annual-nba-league-pass-rankings-part-1-2/

[PANDEMONEUM]

8th seed or bust ?

before the pre-season i was thinking 48 wins or so

seeing how the team was working
and how the players were meshing
i lowered my prediction to 45

then, reviewing the players and their stats,
mostly reminding myself how i felt about Monroe before he came to the Bucks
along with looking at the rest of the East,
i am now thinking 43 wins

[Siefer]

This season is just so high variance, it's hard to predict how it'll turn out with much confidence. At the same time, it's relatively easy to conceive of how a particular prediction could come to pass.

Giannis takes another step, MCW plays within himself, Monroe fits, and we have a plus bench - we could win 50.

Giannis plateaus, MCW is a trainwreck on offense, Monroe is awkward on both ends, and the bench plays like it did post ASG last season - we could lose 50.

[PANDEMONEUM]

id like to see a poll
with how many wins people here expect
50+
45-49
41-44
40-

[BobbyLight]

I think we make the playoffs, probably comfortably, if three things happen:

1 - Giannis takes another leap. Doesn't have to be an all-star, but he needs to continue to defend well, stay on the court and be a quality 3rd scorer.

2 - Parker returns and gives positive minutes.

3 - Monroe is a rich man's Zaza. Dominates the boards, doesn't stop ball movement and facilitates on the elbow.

I think all three need to happen.

I actually think it all relies on the bench, as silly as that may sound. The only reason we were so bad post-all star break was due to Dudley's injury and Bayless' return to Bad Bayless. If Copeland/GV can fill Zaza and Dudley's roles (not position, mind you, just vets who lead, teach and talk and all that.. with similar produciton) and we stay relatively healthy then we are fine. I actually don't think we're all that dependant on Jabari this year.

If Dudley didn't get hurt and Bayless continued his first half play into the second half, I think we'd have won 45 games pretty easy last year. Not a big difference, but that's the win total I expect this year, barring catastrophe.

[ReasonablySober]

Lowe simply seems to think the Bucks we saw last season will be more or less the same Bucks we see this season. Which, maybe. They are really damn young.

That said, young dudes often get better.

[paulpressey25]

id like to see a poll
with how many wins people here expect
50+
45-49
41-44
40-

We will put up the predictions thread Sunday night after the pre-season over and roster cutdowns.

[Baddy Chuck]

I could see it. I see us around the same record as last season, the Hawks aren't winning 60 games again and the bottom teams (minus maybe the Sixers) got better. 41 wins might not make the playoffs.

[Badgerlander]

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jifOSQAI0G8[/youtube]

[paulpressey25]

Pacers taking our place seems even more improbable than us missing the playoffs.

He's going under the assumption that Paul George is a superstar and will be such at PF. He might be right on that count.

Personally I see the Raptors and Pacers as teams on the way down and in some disarray.

[humanrefutation]

Missing the playoffs would be a fairly crushing feeling after all of the momentum that followed them into this season.

But it wouldn't surprise me at all.

[blazza18]

We're still super young and play in an extremely tough division. 42 wins might be our ceiling this year and that might only be good enough for the 8th seed. Agree with Baddy, the bottom of the east got better.