Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has positioned himself as the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft, according to draft analysts. Mendoza leads a thin quarterback class with three first-round prospects after several highly touted passers underperformed expectations this season.
Draft analyst Jordan Reid identified three quarterbacks with first-round grades: Mendoza, Oregon\'s Dante Moore, and Alabama\'s Ty Simpson. The group represents a significant shift from preseason projections, as prospects like Arch Manning, LaNorris Sellers, and Cade Klubnik have seen their stock decline.
Mendoza transferred from Cal to Indiana and quickly adapted to head coach Curt Cignetti\'s offensive system. The quarterback has thrown for 2,758 yards with 32 touchdowns against just five interceptions this season.
Scouts projected Mendoza could rapidly climb draft boards if he succeeded in his new environment. He has one year of eligibility remaining, but all signs indicate he will declare for the 2026 draft.
Simpson and Moore are both first-year starters who could opt to return to school. Their decisions create uncertainty about the final composition of the 2026 quarterback class.
Draft analyst Yates believes Mendoza has the strongest case for the No. 1 overall selection. Most teams positioned near the top of the draft need a franchise quarterback, with the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants as notable exceptions.
\"Of those three QBs in the first-round mix, Mendoza is the one that I feel most confident in declaring for the draft,\" Field Yates wrote. \"The QB1 conversation is not open and closed in my book, as much of it will be determined by the team\'s offensive system and preferred QB play style.\"