The Las Vegas Raiders now hold the best odds to secure the No. 1 pick in the 2026 NFL Draft after their seventh consecutive loss and Tennessee\'s victory over Cleveland in Week 14. The 2-11 Raiders have above 40 percent odds for the top selection according to The Athletic\'s NFL simulator, with seven other teams remaining in contention.
Las Vegas lost quarterback Geno Smith to a right shoulder injury during Sunday\'s game, forcing head coach Pete Carroll to turn to backup Kenny Pickett. The Raiders\' challenging remaining schedule could further improve their draft position.
Tennessee entered Week 14 with better than 50 percent odds for the No. 1 pick but saw those chances cut in half after defeating Cleveland 31-29. Running back Tony Pollard carried 25 times for 161 yards and two touchdowns in the victory.
The Titans had been positioned to hold the top pick for the second consecutive season. Their win over the Browns significantly crowded the race for the No. 1 selection with four weeks remaining.
The New York Jets, Cleveland Browns, New Orleans Saints, Arizona Cardinals, and Washington Commanders all sit at 3-10 and remain mathematically alive for the top pick. Any additional wins would essentially eliminate these teams from contention.
The Jets were officially eliminated from playoff contention for the 15th straight season after losing 34-10 to Miami on Sunday. Their odds for the No. 1 pick now stand around 10 percent.
Cleveland\'s odds dropped below 10 percent despite rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders throwing for 364 yards and four total touchdowns in the loss to Tennessee. The Browns remain in the mix as Myles Garrett chases the NFL sack record.
The 2-11 New York Giants hold the fifth-best odds despite being tied for the league\'s worst record. The Athletic\'s model projects them as slightly better than other contenders with an easier remaining schedule, including a Week 17 matchup against the Raiders.
New Orleans saw its odds drop to around 6 percent after upset rookie Tyler Shough led the Saints to a 24-20 victory over Tampa Bay. The Saints still face games against the Jets and Titans that could significantly impact their draft positioning.
