Seven NFL teams have secured virtual locks for the 2025 playoffs heading into Week 15, with five franchises holding better than 95% odds to make the postseason, according to The Athletic\'s playoff simulator. The New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, and San Francisco 49ers lead their respective conferences with the strongest playoff positioning.
New England leads all teams with over 99% odds to make the playoffs and an 89% chance to win the AFC East. The Bills remain close behind at 98% playoff probability despite their 9-4 record.
In the NFC, five teams have established commanding positions. The Philadelphia Eagles (92% playoff odds, 92% division odds), Packers (95%, 68%), and Rams (99%, 57%) appear set for postseason berths.
The AFC features several tight wild card battles with significant uncertainty. The Pittsburgh Steelers hold 70% playoff odds and 69% division odds in the crowded AFC North, while the Houston Texans sit at 94% and 37% respectively in the AFC South.
The Indianapolis Colts, who just lost quarterback Daniel Jones to a season-ending Achilles tear, represent one of the season\'s most compelling stories at 8-5. Indianapolis holds just 20% playoff odds and 3% division odds despite their winning record, facing crucial games against Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Houston to close the regular season.
The Baltimore Ravens (27% playoff, 27% division) and the Los Angeles Chargers (78%, 13%) occupy precarious positions in their respective divisions. The Ravens trail Pittsburgh in the AFC North while Los Angeles battles for playoff positioning in the AFC West behind Denver.
The NFC South and NFC North feature the tightest division races. The Buccaneers and Panthers both sit at 70% and 30% odds respectively, while the Bears (70%, 26%) chase the Packers in the North.
Several teams have been mathematically eliminated or nearly eliminated. The Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys, and Kansas City Chiefs all register below 1% in multiple categories, effectively ending their postseason hopes with three weeks remaining.