Quarterbacks
Tier 1
1. Josh Allen, Buffalo
2. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia
We could have used sharpies at the top of the fantasy QB rankings over the past few years, as Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts have consistently delivered for their fantasy owners. Allen and Hurts have the magical sauce of TD heavy rushing stats (15 rushing TDs for each player in 2023) to go with strong passing games. Also importantly, both QBs have experienced knock-on-wood good health as dependable weekly starters in your lineups. Allen gets the nod over Hurts due to his superior passing prowess.
For leagues where passing points are heavy (i.e. 5+ points for passing TDs), round 2 makes sense for this duo. For more standard scoring (i.e. 4 points per passing TD), early round 3 serves as the sweet spot.
Tier 2
3. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore
4. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City
Tier 2 presents the sharpie lite group, starting with Lamar Jackson, who boasts a strong volume rushing presence himself to go with solid passing numbers. Meanwhile, the only rankings where you won’t find Patrick Mahomes atop QBs rankings are 1) the 2024 NFL 100 as voted by the players, and 2) fantasy rankings. No better QB in real life football, but those critical fantasy rushing stats fall well below the tier 1 group and Jackson. So Mahomes drops all the way to fourth QB overall here.
Rounds 3-4 feel appropriate for Jackson and Mahomes, depending on your league’s scoring structure. For leagues with favorable passing TD scoring, you could argue for moving Mahomes above Jackson in the rankings.
Tier 3
5. CJ Stroud, Houston
6. Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis
7. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas
Tier 3 boasts a group of signal callers with divergent skillsets. Texans’ QB CJ Stroud burst onto the NFL landscape last year as a rookie, passing for more than 4,000 yards while throwing for only 5 picks. His supporting cast has further improved with the additions of WR Stefon Diggs and RB Joe Mixon, so expect Stroud to build upon his terrific rookie year.
Next we move to the riskiest of players with the highest upside. In very limited time last season, Colts’ QB Anthony Richardson showed glimpses of his potential - he amassed 136 rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs over four games, while throwing for 3 more TDs. But can stay healthy? Richardson’s value depends heavily on his rushing stats, and protecting his body from too many hits needs to be a priority. His upside sits as a top 3 fantasy QB, but injuries and / or stagnation on the passing end would prevent Richardson from getting there. If you roll the dice, make sure to have a solid backup on your roster as well.
Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott round out the tier 3 group. Burrow profiles mostly as a passer, but he sneaks in more rushing stats than one would suspect. With Ja’Marr Chase leading a stellar Bengals’ WR corps, Burrow’s got a high floor – only injury (like in 2023) can disrupt it. Prescott has relied less on his legs as time has gone by, but that’s been accompanied by an increase in counting stats on the passing side. Prescott will need to sling the ball around as much as ever, as in 2024 he has the weakest rushing attack of his Cowboys’ tenure.
If you pass on the top 2 tiers of QBs, no need to rush to pick one with the depth quite strong at the position. Rounds 5-6 fit for the tier 3 quartet.
Tier 4
9. Kyler Murray, Arizona
10. Jordan Love, Green Bay
11. Jayden Daniels, Washington
12. Brock Purdy, San Francisco
Tier 4 possesses QBs who could match the production of their tier 3 counterparts – only they come with less certainty. Cardinals’ QB Kyler Murray has been somewhat forgotten because of his injury issues, but with rookie WR sensation Marvin Harrison Jr. and young star TE Trey McBride in hand, Murray looks to rebound in 2024. Meanwhile, Packers’ QB Jordan Love solidified his status as a franchise QB in the second half of the 2023 season. While I’m less bullish on the Packers’ WRs for fantasy purposes (will cover this in the WR writeup), QB Jordan Love will put up stellar numbers now that he\\\'s coming into his own.
Commanders’ rookie QB Jayden Daniels evokes excitement and differing opinions as to his fantasy rank. Count me on the higher end of those projections, as Daniels will marry his rushing acumen with a well developed passing skillset – meaning sky touching upside. We wrap up tier 4 with perhaps the most underrated QB in Brock Purdy. Playing on the 49ers with a best-in-league skillset group and perhaps the brightest offensive mind in Kyle Shanahan, Purdy just goes out and executes week in and week out. Purdy’s the ultimate high floor pick, with more ceiling than folks give him credit for.
Tier 4 QBs further solidify how much depth exists at the QB position, with more to follow in the next tier. You should target this group of QBs in rounds 7 through 9 of your drafts.
Tier 5
13. Caleb Williams, Chicago
14. Kirk Cousins, Atlanta
15. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville
16. Aaron Rodgers, NY Jets
17. Jared Goff, Detroit
18. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami
19. Geno Smith, Seattle
20. Mathew Stafford, LA Rams
21. Justin Herbert, LA Chargers
Tier 5 runs deep at the QB spot, littered with interesting names. Bears’ rookie QB Caleb Williams leads off the tier, as he enters with one of the most favorable situations for a first overall pick in recent memory. Williams oozes with potential as he also brings with him a rushing dimension to go along with .
Pocket passers comprise the remainder of the tier 5 group. New Falcons’ QB Kirk Cousins has terrific skill players at his disposal in what shapes up to be a high flying offense. Trevor Lawrence didn’t quite deliver on the high 2023 projections placed upon him, but he remains a high floor signal caller who figures to be good for 25 or so TDs. Perhaps the most intriguing QB fit for 2024 goes to Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets. Both player and team face immense pressure to win, and we’ll see how well Rodgers and Garrett Wilson sync up in a redo from last year’s early season ending injury for Rodgers.
Jared Goff finds himself mid-tier 5, which speaks to his pinpoint accuracy and master utilization of the Lions’ skill player weapons, balanced by no contribution in the rushing game. Ditto Tua Tagovailoa. Moving next to an underrated player, Geno Smith profiles similarly to Goff and Tua, though with more upside due to some rushing ability. Smith has largely been hampered by a deficient Seahawks’ offensive line, so that unit needs to step up in order for Smith to provide a strong ROI.
We end tier 5 with the Los Angeles quarterbacks, both of whom are top 5ish QBs in real life, though they get severely dinged for fantasy purposes. Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford doesn’t run, while Chargers’ QB Justin Herbert now sits squarely in a rush-first offense while dependable targets Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have departed. One can reasonably argue that both QBs should be ranked higher, but ultimately we’ll see how the season shakes out.
Rounds 10 and onward should be where this group gets selected, with widely ranging opinions on how they should be ranked. Ideally these QBs serve as your backup / spot starter, as opposed to your weekly best option.
Tier 5
22. Deshaun Watson, Cleveland
23. Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
24. Bryce Young, Carolina
25. Will Levis, Tennessee
26. Daniel Jones, NY Giants
27. Derek Carr, New Orleans
Won’t spend too much time going through tier 6, as you should not be starting these players except in the case of emergency or if you play in a deeper two-QB league. Will note that Deshaun Watson has upside if he can find his way back to his Texans’ days. Watching him last year though, it looked like that ship had sailed. And let’s see if a new coaching staff and a ‘slight’ improvement on the Panthers’ skill position player group helps unlock Bryce Young. These players should be drafted late in leagues – think rounds 15 onward.
Draft Strategy:
The typical recommended strategy for QBs has been to wait until you’ve fortified your RB/WR/TE positions before snagging your QB, due to great depth at the position and the fact that you only start one QB (with the obvious exception in 2 QB leagues). For the 2024 season, take a two-pronged approach. In case your draft board lines up and you have a chance to take one of the QB options within the top 2 tiers, go for it. Otherwise if you miss out on the tier 1 or tier 2 QBs, then don’t rush it – snag one of the options in tier 3 or 4 without panicking. Don’t wait for tier 5, however, to draft your first QB.
In case you play in a league which starts two QB’s, ignore the paragraph above. For two QB leagues, do your best to grab one of the tier 1 or 2 QBs – they will be first rounders there. From there, grab another QB among the tier 3 through 5 group. If you miss out on the tier 1-2 QBs, then do your best to lock down at least one tier 3 QB.
Personal Note
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