Last Week: 13-3. I’m back, baby! After Week 1’s middling 8-8, the two week tally is 21-11.
Som Update: The foreign currency wagering received an unexpected bolster from the WTA of all things. The Women’s tennis tour was in Uzbekistan last week, and I rode Bojana Jovanovski’s victory in the Tashkent Open to some winning bets here too. I wagered 1,850 som and came back a winner on 1,150. That erases a lot of the Week 1 losses. I started with 10,000 Uzbekistani som, and I now sit at 9,300.
Thursday Night
Kansas City Chiefs at Philadelphia Eagles (-3): Much is being made of Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia, where he coached for 14 seasons and won eight NFC East championships. That’s a juicy storyline, but I’m more interested in how Reid’s replacement, Chip Kelly, handles a short work week.
This is a radical change of schedule, and this is Kelly’s first time experiencing it in the NFL. He’s known for his frenetic offensive pace, but his players have three less days to recover from last week’s game. I believe that is a significant factor. Fatigue sets in quicker, and it will be hard for the Eagles to go-go-go with sharpness. Kansas City has enough defensive talent to make life difficult, with second-year defensive tackle Dontari Poe blossoming into a major force inside. I think Reid will design an offensive scheme to pick apart a Philly defense that is highly vulnerable to the big play. It’s a good week to own Jamaal Charles in fantasy football.
Chiefs 27, Eagles 21
Sunday Best
Green Bay Packers at Cincinnati Bengals (+2.5): Green Bay’s offensive line played very well last week against Washington, ending their 100-yard rushing drought that stretched back to 2010. Their orgy of offensive production was dangerously close to exceeding Cinemax standards.
This week they face a much tougher Cincinnati defense. That lowers the level of gratuitous offense from NC-17 to one of those older PG-13 movies where there were a couple of topless women and maybe a naked butt here and there. Those were good times. You rarely see casual nudity in R-rated films anymore, let alone PG-13. I strongly believe this is a direct cause for the rampant rise in more hardcore pornography’s popularity, but that’s a story for another time. Back to football!
The key to this game is how well the Bengals can pressure Aaron Rodgers. They have the potential to make life difficult, but Rodgers is excellent at delivering strikes under pressure. I don’t think the Bengals can shut down all the receiving weapons, notably tight end Jermichael Finley, who finally appears to have extricated his head from his trousers. He’s a nightmare matchup but has been his own worst enemy with ugly drops and selfish comments. The Bengals do not have an answer for him down the field. Of course the Packers don’t have an answer for similarly talented Tyler Eifert, who fills the same role for Cincinnati’s offense.
That could make for a shootout. In the case of a shootout, I always go with the better quarterback. Aaron Rodgers vs. Andy Dalton is not a tough decision.
Packers 33, Bengals 28
Houston Texans at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5): My son Layne is a rabid Texans fan, and he really hates the Ravens, so this game will get inordinate attention in the Risdon household. Things got rosier for my Layne when Jacoby Jones was ruled out once again with a knee injury, robbing the Ravens of a downfield threat and return option. Baltimore has not looked much like a playoff team, let alone the reigning Super Bowl champs. With Ray Rice’s status iffy with a hip injury, the primary offensive weapon is removed from the Baltimore equation. I don’t think they have enough else for Joe Flacco to work with to beat a physical Texans team, which could be getting a big lift from Ed Reed. If Reed can run at all, you’d better believe he’ll play in this game, his return to Baltimore as an opponent.
I think this game is a good litmus test for the Texans. They’re 2-0 but arrived there precariously, needing overtime to beat the Titans last week. In the opener they fell behind San Diego 28-7 before mounting a furious comeback to pull out the last-second win. They’ve been living dangerously, and that won’t fly against the Ravens. If the Texans want us to take them seriously as a viable challenger to Denver in the AFC, they need to win this one. I like the arrival of Nuke Hopkins as a receiving threat, and the Ravens don’t have the secondary to counter more than one threat. As long as Andre Johnson plays, the Texans win.
Texans 31, Ravens 27
Sunday Rest
Cleveland Browns at Minnesota Vikings (-6): As I sat down with my second pot of coffee to write this column on Wednesday morning, the news broke that Cleveland will start Brian Hoyer at quarterback. All of the sudden, any doubt surrounding this game parted like the clouds after a thunderstorm.
Brian Hoyer was cut by three teams last year. He failed to beat out Ryan Mallett for the backup job in New England in preseason. When Pittsburgh was down to its third-string QB last year because of injuries, Hoyer wasn’t even deemed good enough to be their backup after a brief look. After that he went to Arizona, where the coaching staff opted to go with overwhelmed rookie Ryan Lindley over Hoyer.
The optimist in me wants to be wrong here. Hoyer is a Cleveland native, a product of legendary St. Ignatius High School. He gets a chance to start for an offense that is well-suited to his strengths, throwing the ball down the field. He even gets top wideout Josh Gordon at his disposal, back from suspension. The Browns are facing one of the few teams with QB woes as deep as their own in Minnesota, where Christian Ponder continues to struggle. Ponder is downright terrible when blitzed, and the Browns defense blitzes frequently.
The potential is here for the Browns to pull the shocker, but there’s a reason why the line on this game moved from three to six points in less than 10 minutes after it was announced that Hoyer is starting over presumed backup Jason Campbell. The Vikings are the forecasted winner, but there is a 30 percent chance of Cleveland raining down on the winless Vikings inside the dome.
Vikings 24, Browns 12 for 750 som
*Update: that was written before the Trent Richardson trade, which I will give my thoughts on over at least one cent this weekend. I like the Vikings heavier now.
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins (-1.5): There are some universal truths that you just don’t question. The sun rises in the east. Local news will interrupt any programming to report on a powerful storm. People in Toyota Priuses drive too slowly in the fast lane. And the Detroit Lions do not win in Washington.
The Detroit Lions have never won in Washington as the Detroit Lions. The franchise does hold two road wins over the Redskins franchise, but the first was as the Portsmouth Spartans, while the second came over the Boston Redskins.
If ever the Lions were to break this dubious string, this is the year. The Washington defense is atrocious. Their secondary lacks talent, but what makes things really bad is that defensive coordinator Jim Haslett is running a scheme that his players have no hope of successfully executing. It’s akin to asking a third grade basketball team to throw alley-oops on a 10 foot rim. Even without Reggie Bush--I don’t think he plays--Detroit has enough offensive prowess to light up the Washington defense. Given how poorly Washington’s offense has started games, it sure looks good for the visitors.
I’ll believe it when I see it. I hope I do see it, but breaking a string that dates back to 1939 requires a leap of faith that this seasoned Lions fan just isn’t ready to make.
Washington 33, Detroit 31
St. Louis Rams at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5): I believe this game will come down to which pass rush is more effective. St. Louis has the best pass rush in the league according to the good folks at Pro Football Focus, while the Cowboys are not far behind in their rankings. Tony Romo is often outstanding but has an alarming propensity to wilt under pressure. Sam Bradford isn’t as top-end strong as Romo, but he’s also proven he can be a good starter when given time. Neither team runs the ball very effectively, which means lots of passing opportunities. In turn, that creates pass rush opportunities. I think the spread here is too wide to have any confidence one way or the other. The Cowboys should win, but it’s no greater than a 55/45 prospect.
Cowboys 30, Rams 27
New York Giants at Carolina Panthers (-1.5): This is déjà vu all over again. These same two teams met in Carolina in Week 3 last season too. They entered that game with the same records as one another, as both were 1-1 coming off wins. This year they are both 0-2, but once again the line remains the same with the visiting Giants favored by 1.5 points.
In that game last year, New York forced five turnovers and held the Panthers to 60 yards rushing. The Giants crushed Carolina 36-7.
This game figures to be closer, but I still really like the Giants. Carolina lost two starting defensive backs during the course of action last week. Starting corner Josh Thomas is doubtful with a concussion, while safety Charles Godfrey is done for the year with a torn Achilles. With some other lingering injuries mixed in, their starting safeties are Mike Mitchell and Colin Jones and the top reserve is undrafted rookie Robert Lester. In the parlance of the youngsters, Victor Cruz gonna eat!
Giants 29, Panthers 17 for 400 som
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-2): This is an interesting matchup. No, really. With all of the East Coast media overkill, it’s hard to believe that these two teams are probably both underappreciated. Sure, the Jets might be a running punchline, but this is not an easy football team to beat. Geno Smith has shown he can string together some plays, while the Jets defense continues to play very well. Their front line can take over games. Look at how well they pressured Tom Brady last week. If they can rattle one of the greatest quarterbacks in NFL history, imagine what they can do to a rookie quarterback like EJ Manuel.
The big Florida State product comes off an emotional first win, and he has weapons around him that Smith can only dream about. CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson give the Bills options at running back, while Manuel appears to have strong chemistry with fellow rookie wideout Robert Woods. This gives the Bills a fighting chance, but I think the Jets will embrace railing against the false narrative that pervades the NFL coverage. Are the Jets a walking disaster film? Yes they are, but that doesn’t make them a bad team. They are better than you’ve been led to believe by many folks, myself included.
Jets 19, Bills 16
Chicago Bears at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5): It is no fluke that Chicago is 2-0 and Pittsburgh is 0-2. The Bears appear revitalized under Marc Trestman, while the Steelers appear stale under Mike Tomlin. Perhaps stale is the wrong word; Pittsburgh’s offense simply lacks talent around Big Ben and cannot protect him. It’s only the defense that is stale. I thought Bomani Jones of ESPN hit it on the head when he riffed about the Steelers playing the same defense they did five and 10 years ago with the same guys they did five and 10 years ago. The game has changed in that time. Pittsburgh has not.
Still, it’s stunning to see Pittsburgh as a home underdog this early into a season. Even though they’re not a very good football team, Pittsburgh is going to win a handful of games. I think this is one of them. I have no idea how they pull it off. Maybe Jay Cutler throws three INTs and the Bears lose a special teams fumble. Maybe Ben Roethslisberger overrides offensive coordinator Todd Haley and gets back to his improvisational ways, catching the Bears off guard. Maybe the fantastic home crowd and organizational pride triumph for a day.
Steelers 20, Bears 17
Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints (-9): Channeling my inner Ron Jaworski…I watched both these teams’ coaches tape this week, and here’s what I saw. Arizona is doing a good job of attacking the defense in all layers with Carson Palmer. Their offensive line isn’t as terrible as we’ve been led to believe, and their diverse stable of running backs affords them versatility and the ability to ride the hot hand. Yet they struggled on 3rd down against Detroit, unable to match the raised intensity and losing the creativity that made them effective on first and second downs. Defensively they have play makers in Patrick Peterson and Tyrann Mathieu, who are as dangerous as any duo in the league with the ball in the air. Their linebackers struggle in coverage, however, and they don’t have anyone who can turn the corner as an outside pass rusher. That’s a problem against Drew Brees and the high-flying Saints offense.
New Orleans struggled against Tampa Bay for a couple of reasons. Foremost was their offensive line, which failed to create any surge in the run game. The interior of the line gave up too many pressures on Brees, forcing him to throw before he wanted or moving him off his desired spot and disrupting the throwing angles. Yet even on an off day, Brees demonstrated once again the ability to exploit mismatches and take advantage of breakdowns in the secondary. Defensively, end Cam Jordan was a major factor. His ability to knife through gaps before the blocking could establish itself consistently scuttled the Tampa offense. But the rest of the defense benefitted more from Tampa’s mistakes than anything they really did well themselves. Doug Martin sashayed at will off both tackles, repeatedly catching the Saints linebackers out of position.
I think Carson Palmer can make the plays that Josh Freeman could not against this Saints defense. I’m not sure he can make more of them than Drew Brees and Jimmy Graham, but I think Arizona has enough offense alacrity to keep this game close.
Saints 30, Cardinals 24 for 250 som
Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-19.5): The best team in the NFC hosts the worst team in the AFC. Jacksonville was thoroughly outclassed in Oakland (Oakland!!) last week, while the Seahawks blew out the mighty 49ers at deafening Qwest Field. This is the easiest Survivor fantasy game choice of the season, for those of you who didn’t fall victim to taking Philadelphia last week and still have life. Could be a very good fantasy week for Robert Turbin, who figures to get extended garbage time action, and for those who play salary cap weekly games the Seattle D is a must-have.
Seahawks 30, Jaguars 3 for 500 som
San Diego Chargers at Tennessee Titans (-3): Both these 1-1 teams are playing better than I expected. Both could very easily be 2-0. San Diego’s offense has been revitalized thanks to Philip Rivers and Eddie Royal rediscovering their 2008 forms, while the Titans defense is playing very well under new coordinator Gregg Williams.
Notice that this is strength on strength. I’m not sold that what San Diego is doing offensively is sustainable, but I do think the Titans defensive teeth are legitimately sharp. As long as Jake Locker doesn’t blow the game, the home team should prevail. Tennessee has done a good job in protecting Locker from himself; normally a 5.5 yards per attempt is laughably inept, but for Locker it keeps him away from the errant throws over the middle and the ugly INTs. It’s not pretty or exciting, but it’s how you win when Jake Locker is your quarterback.
Titans 23, Chargers 20
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New England Patriots (-7): New England is 2-0 thanks to smoke, mirrors, and a cupcake schedule that continues with the increasingly dysfunctional Buccaneers. Tampa Bay has blown last-minute leads in both their games. The first on a dumb penalty from stud LB Lavonte David and the second when kicker Rian Lindell missed a 47-yard field goal, setting up the Saints in good field position for a game-winning field goal of their own.
I don’t think they get a chance to fritter this one away. New England’s defense can bring the pressure with Rob Ninkovich and Chandler Jones, and Bucs QB Josh Freeman struggles even when he’s not under pressure. Tampa is on the verge of a complete implosion, and Belichick protégé Greg Schiano should probably start campaigning for the about-to-be-vacant jobs at either Texas or Nebraska in the NCAA. His rigid ways only work in the NFL when the team is winning, and this team keeps losing.
Patriots 23, Bucs 13
Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins (-1): This is a tough forecast thanks to some uncertain computer models regarding how Atlanta fills two major holes. Linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, both the emotional and tactical leader of the defense, was placed on short-term injured reserve and will miss at least eight weeks. Running back Steven Jackson, their prized free agent acquisition this offseason, will miss the next 2-4 weeks as well.
Those are significant losses. Going outdoors on the road to face undefeated Miami is probably not the best initial testing of their replacements. While RB Jacquizz Rodgers has some elusiveness and receiving skills, he’s not a pounder like Jackson. “Spoon” will be replaced by Stephen Nicholas, who lost his starting job to undrafted rookie Joplo Bartu this offseason. They will really miss Spoon’s ability to quickly read and react to plays, not to mention his coverage skills. With Miami having an athletic quarterback and a newfound toy in versatile Charles Clay, that’s a real problem this week. Be wary of overconfidence on the Dolphins, however; teams often get unexpected strong performances off the bat from injury fill-ins, and the Falcons have enough talent around the rest of the team to compensate too. If this game was in Atlanta I’d take the Falcons, but I like Miami at home.
Dolphins 26, Falcons 21
Indianapolis Colts at San Francisco 49ers (-10.5): Can you say “bounce back game”? San Francisco is howling mad after being eviscerated on national television by their hated rival, the Seattle Seahawks. Even though the Niners have some serious issues with receivers getting open for Colin Kaepernick, the Colts don’t have anything close to the coverage aptitude of Seattle. I also expect RB Frank Gore to break out from his early-season doldrums and prove he’s still a very capable back.
All that means that the Colts are going to have to try and outscore the Niners. This SF defense isn’t playing to the incredible level it did a year ago, but it’s still a talent-laden, formidable unit. The Colts lost top tight end Dwayne Allen for the season with a hip injury, and that’s a big blow. Not only was he a valuable receiver, he was arguably the best run blocker on the team too. Andrew Luck will have to churn out a superlative effort against his old Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh for the Colts to even come close to covering the growing spread. I’m impressed with Luck’s improvement over his mistake-plagued rookie year, but the Colts just don’t have the horses to win this one.
49ers 38, Colts 24
Monday Night
Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-14.5): What have we done to deserve this sort of punishment? The woeful Raiders on Monday Night Football, against the mighty Broncos of all teams, is one of those curious scheduling decisions that comes back to bite the NFL in the butt. Unless you like watching college games between SEC powers and their FCS cupcake du jour, this is one of those Monday nights where you can interact with your family or go to bed early. I hope to be asleep by 9:30 Eastern, at which point the Broncos should have a 17 point lead already. The only real drama is if Peyton Manning throws an interception against a Raiders defense that can generate some pressure and has opportunistic players on the back end.
Broncos 37, Raiders 18
Gambling recap:
Minnesota -6 for 750
Seattle -19.5 for 500
NY Giants +1.5 for 400
Arizona +9 for 250
I would pick some college games this week, but this might be the weakest slate of games in the middle of a season possible. Do yourself a favor and get outside this weekend instead of watching college football.