Tier 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, CAR
2. Dalvin Cook, MIN
3. Alvin Kamara, NO
Top tier running backs remain the most important commodity in fantasy football, as the NFL has evolved into a very pass happy league and timeshares have become more commonplace. A troika of RBs reside in the top tier for the 2021 season, and they should be the top three overall picks in your draft. Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara will be the clear focal points in their respective offenses, both in the rushing and passing games. While Dalvin Cook has less involvement in the passing game, he’s a true bell cow who will find the end zone with regularity. Cook scored 17 TDs last season, and he’s a safe bet for double digit scores once again. Kamara initially resided at the top of tier 2, but Michael Thomas’ injury – which will keep him out for several weeks and direct even more touches Kamara’s way – vaulted him into the lead group.
Tier 2
4. Derrick Henry, TEN
5. Austin Ekeler, LAC
6. Saquon Barkley, NYG
7. Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
8. Jonathan Taylor, IND
9. Aaron Jones, GB
Some may argue with Derrick Henry’s exclusion from tier 1, but he just doesn’t do enough in the passing game to be placed at the top level. That said, fourth overall ain’t too shabby. Austin Ekeler has no such issue, deployed as a dynamo in both the pass and run game for the Chargers. He’s the most underrated RB in this tier, and you’ll find Ekeler ranked higher here than elsewhere. Saquon Barkley has flashed immense talent in his brief time in the NFL, but will need to show that he’s healthy. Barkley also has a knack for boom or bust with his carries, so some additional consistency will help. Zeke comes in with question marks, as he looked stiff in 2020, even pre-injury. Whether we get the 2019 version or the 2020 version will go a long way in determining his value. Jonathan Taylor started his rookie season slowly in 2020, but busted out for 8 TDs and 123.5 YPC over his final six games. Finally, Aaron Jones remains a favorite of mine, and deserves a better fantasy outlook than he gets. The coaching staff’s desire to spread around the carries pushes Jones’ value down…but not out of tier 2. This group should also be selected with your first round picks, with any selection of one of these guys in the second round constituting a steal.
Tier 3
10. Nick Chubb, CLE
11. Antonio Gibson, WAS
12. Joe Mixon, CIN
13. Najee Harris, PIT
This quartet of running backs comes with potential for tier 2 ROI, but each has a few more limiting factors in play. Strictly from a rushing standpoint, Nick Chubb may be the best running back in the league, but he’s a very limited factor in the passing game. Antonio Gibson flashed in his rookie season last year, but he still has to contend with JD McKissic’s role in the passing game. Questions also remain as to whether Gibson can hold up as a bell cow RB. Joe Mixon has flashed major talent in his four years in the NFL, but half of his seasons have been marred by injuries. Dependability keeps him from moving higher on the list. Lastly, Najee Harris is the most anticipated fantasy rookie for the 2021 season. He looked legit at Bama, and he’ll be the Steelers’ bell cow from day 1. The primary concern with Harris has nothing to do with the RB, but with the Steelers’ offensive line. The Steelers were putrid up front in 2020, and have done little to inspire confidence for improvement going into this season. So each player in this group comes with questions, but don’t overthink it. Each rusher has an RB2 floor with ceiling for more, and provides strong values in round 2 of your drafts.
Tier 4
14. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, KC
15. Chris Carson, SEA
16. Darrell Henderson, LAR
17. D\\\'Andre Swift, DET
18. J.K. Dobbins, BAL
The tier 4 group largely shares a theme. Each will be his team’s leading ball carrier, but expected quantity of touches limit the ceiling of each guy. CEH also plays a role in the passing game, but let’s be real…Patrick Mahomes won’t allow for a top 5 fantasy RB alongside of him. Any time Mahomes hands the ball off, it’s a win for the defense. Chris Carson has a secure spot on the all-underrated team, as he’s a terrific runner and capable receptor of the ball. But the Seahawks usually prefer other options as their third down back, limiting his snaps. Darrell Henderson ascends to the Rams’ top RB spot with Cam Akers suffering an unfortunate season ending injury. Henderson looks spry when you watch the tape, and he will have a role in the passing game as well. But whether he’s built for 300 carries for the season remains to be seen…the guess here is no. D’Andre Swift had electric moments as a rookie last season, but for some reason his coach seems intent on spreading the carries around. Same story for J.K. Dobbins, who averaged a cool 6.0 YPC last season. Hey Coach Harbaugh, do you think that maybe, just maybe, Dobbins has earned more carries??? Hopefully Coach Harbaugh had his analytics department research this question in the offseason. The tier 4 group should start flying off draft boards early in round 3, with the tier exhausted by no later than the middle of round 4.
Tier 5
19 .Miles Sanders, PHI
20. Myles Gaskin, MIA
21 Josh Jacobs, LV
22. David Montgomery, CHI
23. Mike Davis, ATL
24. Chase Edmonds, ARI
25. Travis Etienne, JAC
26. Kareem Hunt, CLE
Tier 5 contains low end RB2s / high end flex players, worthy of selection starting at the end of round 4 and continuing through round 7. Miles Sanders averaged just over 15 carries per game once Hurts took over at QB, and with Kerryon Johnson and Jordan Howard to contend with in the backfield, that number will not be increasing. Myles Gaskin and Mike Davis also find themselves on the underrated team, with sneaky solid weekly play, even if they lack a high ceiling. Jacobs should be a top 10 fantasy RB, but the Raiders’ addition of Kenyan Drake took a blowtorch to his value. David Montgomery will find his way to a steady 1,200 yards and 8 TDs, and possibly more if fellow Bear Tarik Cohen continues to battle injury issues. Chase Edmonds suffered from the same fate at Jacobs this offseason, with James Connor likely to syphon some of Edmonds’ totes. Etienne is the hardest to predict from this group. He played collegiately with Trevor Lawrence, so it’s hard to see Etienne having a secondary role to last year’s breakout star, James Robinson. Finally, Hunt makes up the second half of the best RB tandem in the NFL, and he’ll be a force in the passing game, with just enough rushes to be a weekly starter at flex, if not as an RB2 in full PPR leagues.
Tier 6
27. Javonte Williams, DEN
28. Raheem Mostert, SF
29. Michael Carter, NYJ
30. Ronald Jones II, TB
31. Zack Moss, BUF
32. Melvin Gordon III, DEN
33. James Robinson, JAC
34. Damien Harris, NE
35. David Johnson, HOU
Tier 6 is comprised of a few some massive upside plays, together with solid if uninspiring options. Outside of Najee Harris, the Broncos’ Javonte Williams has the most buzz from the rookie RB class. Williams was electric at North Carolina, and he has a shot to take over the lead RB role in Denver, which would put him in top 10 RB territory. Williams sits in tier 6 because his floor is bench fodder, so he’s a true lottery ticket at this moment. We’ll get more clarity as the preseason moves forward. Raheem Mostert has also shown RB1 ability in Coach Shanahan’s offense, but he comes with serious injury concerns, along with competition from other 49ers’ backs. Michael Carter has the inside track at the Jets’ starting RB job, which gives him a higher floor than some others in this tier. RoJo is the Bucs’ best back, but Leonard Fournette will be in the mix as well, limiting Jones’ value. Zack Moss has potential well above his ranking as well, but QB Josh Allen looms large as a TD vulture. Melvin Gordon and James Robinson appear as of now to be the second RB option on their respective teams, otherwise they were RB2s last season. Damien Harris has a limited ceiling if Cam Newton serves as the Patriots’ QB, so Harris owners should pull for Mac Jones to win the starting job in order to increase Harris’ opportunities for rushing TDs. David Johnson should be the most active RB for the Texans, but underrated Phillip Lindsay (next tier) will play a big role as well. Rounds 7 through 10 should be where these ball carriers leave draft boards.
Tier 7
36. Trey Sermon, SF
37. Leonard Fournette, TB
38. James Conner, ARI
39. Kenyan Drake, LV
40. Gus Edwards, BAL
41. Latavius Murray, NO
42. AJ Dillon, GB
43. Jamaal Williams, DET
44. Devin Singletary, BUF
45. J.D. McKissic, WAS
46. Phillip Lindsay, HOU
Looking at tier 7, you notice that we’re now strictly looking at lower ends of timeshares and backups. Sermon sit atop the tier for me due to his ceiling as an RB1 in Coach Shanahan’s rushing friendly offense. Now, the probability that Sermon will reach his ceiling in 2021 is low, but when you make it to the lower tiers in the draft, swing for the fences. Fournette, Edwards and Murray have the highest floors among the rest of the group, as each should play an important factor in their teams’ weekly game plan. Along with Sermon, Dillon and Drake get the biggest boosts if they elevate to a starting role due to injury or otherwise. This group of RBs should be selected by fantasy managers in rounds 10 through 12.
Tier 8
47. Tony Pollard, DAL
48. Nyheim Hines, IND
49. Tarik Cohen, CHI
50. James White, NE
51. Alexander Mattison, MIN
52. Rashaad Penny, SEA
53. Tevin Coleman, NYJ
54. Kenneth Gainwell, PHI
55. Giovani Bernard, TB
56. Salvon Ahmed, MIA
57. Sony Michel, NE
58. Marlon Mack, IND
59. Darrel Williams, KC
Similar to tier 7, the best bet with this group is to draft for upside. Which players constitute the upside plays here? It’s the players sitting behind the bell cow starters. That’s Tony Pollard, that’s Alexander Mattison and that’s Rashaad Penny. An injury to the starters on these teams, and this troika zooms up the board, with Pollard and Mattison becoming RB1s and Penny elevating to an RB2. Marlon Mack and Salvon Ahmed also fall into a similar category, becoming flex plays in the event they up to starters for their teams. Rounds 12 and onward make sense for this group.
Draft Strategy:
While an elite tight end is the most scarce resource in fantasy football, only 1-3 such players exist (depending upon your definition of elite). This means that the vast majority of teams will have non-elite tight ends as their starter. And as you’ll see in the WR rankings, strong options run deep as you move down the draft board, meaning you’ll likely stumble into a solid WR group even if not trying to do so. This leads us to running backs, where you have only a handful of truly elite options (who will disappear in round 1), followed by a handful of solid RB2 level players, and then lots of potential, question marks and timeshares. As a result, if you don’t pay careful attention to the RB position, you will fall behind your league members. This doesn’t mean that you need to draft a RB at all costs with your first pick, but you need to keep a close eye on the tiers, and make sure that you end up with a solid group of starting RBs, together with some breakout potential on your bench.
Ideally you should aim to roster at least two RBs from within the top 4 tiers, along with a tier 5 backup / flex option, and one or more lottery tickets / breakout candidates among your later picks. I strongly encourage you to run multiple mock drafts to see how your drafts look when you take a RB in round 1, and also what it looks like when you take a WR or Travis Kelce in the first round. You’ll get a feel for when RBs fall off a cliff in drafts, where your roster feels best in terms of its composition, etc. This is an invaluable exercise in prepping for your actual drafts. While I first and foremost suggest that you stay true to your draft boards, I urge you to at least have a plan at RB, as it’s tougher to improve a subpar RB group on your roster than other positions.