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Last Week: 10-5 and that includes my frivolous pick of Jacksonville winning. Never again! The season tally goes to 70-37. 

Betting Update: I began Week 7 with 6400 Uzbek som, which is worth about as much as I find when I empty the dryer lint trap. Another complete dog of a week takes me down to 5000, as I bombed on what I felt were strong plays in Kansas City and Miami. 

This has made me a little gun-shy. Halfway through the season I’ve already lost half my money. So this week’s wagering will be quite conservative.

Thursday Game 

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+5.5): In last week’s $.10 I praised the Panthers for their recent play. I am more than a little worried that I might have jinxed them here. They are clearly the better team, but if they play down to Tampa Bay’s level they could get beat here. I’d like the Bucs’ chances even more if excellent running back Doug Martin was in the lineup to help ease the pressure on Mike Glennon. 

Carolina’s biggest advantage here is that they will not let Tampa Bay get out in front early. The Panthers lead the league in first quarter scoring defense. They have only allowed a safety, completely blanking the opposing offenses. The easiest way to bury a bad team is to get in front early and stress them, and the Panthers are well-equipped to do that.

Again, I do very much worry about overconfidence and not handling recent success well. But these Bucs just don’t inspire any confidence at all.

Panthers 20, Buccaneers 14 

Sunday Best 

New York Jets at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5): It’s a light week on the NFL schedule when this game is the most appealing on the slate. Still, it’s a good contest between what appear to be playoff teams.

The key to me is how well the Cincinnati offensive line handles the very talented Jets defensive front. Last week they manhandled a very good Lions D-line, but that was a four man line which lacked a lot of positional discipline. These Jets are a 3-man front, which changes the angles of attack. And Rex Ryan dials up exotic blitzes and mixes coverages a lot more effectively than Detroit does.

This game is a real treat for people who like defensive line play. I understand that’s not exactly the most glamorous thing to watch, but if you care you are in for a treat here. Jets center Nick Mangold versus Bengals defensive tackle Geno Atkins is must-watch TV for football nerds. The line which can impact the opposing quarterback the most wins. I really like the Jets front, but Cincinnati’s is deeper and their offensive line is better than New York’s. Losing top corner Leon Hall to an Achilles injury hurts a lot, but I don’t think Geno Smith gets the chance to attack down the field much here.

The Bengals can really put some distance between themselves and the rest of the AFC North here. A win puts them at 6-2, and nobody else in the division is likely to have more than 3 wins by the end of the weekend. I think they seize the opportunity to show they belong in the conversation with Denver, Kansas City and Indianapolis as the clear elite of the AFC. 

Bengals 24, Jets 20 

Sunday Rest 

Cleveland Browns at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5): Just in time to face what is arguably the NFL\'s best all-around defense, Cleveland decides to hop back onto the quarterback carousel. Out goes Brandon Weeden, who kept getting worse the more he played, and in steps Jason Campbell.

I’ve been a Weeden supporter in the past, but the Browns absolutely had to make a change to salvage the will of the other players. There is no way they could have possessed any confidence in Weeden any longer. Campbell brings a little more mobility and more experience at handling pressure. Washington and Oakland fans, hold your guffaws; Browns fans will learn soon enough…

Chiefs 20, Browns 12 

Dallas Cowboys at Detroit Lions (-3): The Lions will catch a huge break if DeMarcus Ware isn’t able to play. He did not practice on Wednesday after not playing last week. That would greatly ease the burden on the wounded offensive tackle situation, as both normal starters Riley Reiff and Corey Hilliard also missed practice on Wed. and are considered questionable here. 

This presents a great chance for undrafted rookie LaAdrian Waddle to step in and prove he’s worthy of being in the long-term plans for Detroit. I wrote about Waddle earlier this week at Bleacher Report and I’m excited to see him get a chance.

But for the Lions to win, they must get some productivity out of the defensive line. Ndamukong Suh, Willie Young and the rest of the front four must put pressure on Tony Romo and not let him get comfortable in finding Jason Witten and Dez Bryant down the field. This is a prominent stage for Suh to prove his merits as a disruptive force and not just some dirty player. Matthew Stafford will need to play better than he did against Cincinnati as well. The near-misses last week have to connect in order to hang with Dallas. I worry that Rod Marinelli’s defensive line will give the makeshift Lions line trouble in his return to Detroit, scene of his 0-16 crime against football.=

Cowboys 30, Lions 27 

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-7): If the Dolphins want to keep up with the Patriots and Jets in the AFC East, this is a must-win. After a 3-0 start the Miami ship is sinking fast. Their third down conversion rate on offense is trending hard in the wrong direction, converting just 23 percent of their third downs over the last three games. That’s the second-worst rate in the league over that span.

Fortunately for Miami, the one team below them in that statistical metrics is none other than the New England Patriots. The Brady-led offense is struggling to get productive yardage on early downs, leaving them really struggling to make it on third downs. I do think this is the week where Rob Gronkowski asserts his dominance. It’s his second week back from prolonged injury, and he will feel more confident in taking hits. Tom Brady desperately needs him to get back to the Gronk of old, because none of the other receivers are reliably getting open or catching the ball. 

I like the Patriots to win in the cold climate at home, perhaps buoyed by the Red Sox being in the World Series. But the Dolphins have enough ammo to keep it close, and one bad punt or pass interference penalty can swing this game. 

Patriots 20, Dolphins 16 

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5): The Giants finally broke into the win column even though they were still quite underwhelming on Monday night; Minnesota was simply worse. At least Eli Manning avoided the costly turnovers, though once again it was more about Minnesota’s ineptitude (hello Marcus Sherels dropping an easy INT) than anything the Giants did well.

Philly comes off an ugly loss, but they should get Michael Vick back. As long as he can start and finish the game--which is no given--the Eagles offense should be able to move the ball and expose the creaky Giants\' defense. Of course Philly’s own defense is prone to major breakdowns too.

When I sat down to write this, I got a strong feeling towards the Giants here. I’ll go with that, and I think there will be a copious amount of points. I’m quite happy to have LeSean McCoy on my fantasy team this week, and you will be too.

Giants 39, Eagles 35 for 250 som 

San Francisco 49ers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+16.5): After picking the Jaguars last week in what sure seemed like a confluence of excellent circumstances for them to pick up their first win, there is no freaking way I’m expecting them to do anything positive against a much better 49ers team. That San Francisco defense against this punchless Jaguars offense? Yeah, right. If you haven’t used San Francisco yet in your survivor fantasy game, this is the time.

49ers 33, Jaguars 10 for 250 som

Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints (-11.5): The Saints at home against a backup quarterback, albeit a fairly scrappy one? Yeah, that’s all you really need to know here. Mario Williams is playing well, but he’s not nearly enough to pull the upset. 

Saints 31, Bills 14 for 500 som 

Pittsburgh Steelers at Oakland Raiders (+2.5): Steelers\' fans are crawling back out of the holes they hid in during the team’s 0-4 start. After knocking off the hated Ravens last week, their level of optimism is back in full force. 

We’ll find out if that optimism is warranted if they can handle the Raiders. They should be up to the task, provided they continue with the more effective running game and stopping the opposing rushers. The run defense has really taken off and completely negated Baltimore, holding them to just 3.2 yards per carry. 

Terrelle Pryor does provide another dynamic, the mobile quarterback. I think Pryor will find some success attacking the edges, but he has to make some plays with his arm as well. I love how they have tailored the offense to his skills, but you can bet Dick LeBeau will come up with some wrinkles to complicate matters. I think this is a low-scoring game decided on turnovers and special teams. 

Steelers 18, Raiders 16 

Washington Redskins at Denver Broncos  (-13): Ethnic Slurs coach Mike Shanahan returns to Denver, where he coached for well over a decade. His Washington team has won two of three since starting 0-3, and a win here puts them, however improbably, back in the thick of the NFC East race. 

I really don’t think they stand much of a chance. The Broncos are coming off a sloppy, emotional loss in Indianapolis. The Colts exposed both of Denver’s biggest faults: covering multiple downfield routes on the same play and protecting Peyton Manning between the tackles. Washington has talent on both sides of the ball, but they don’t do either of those skills very well. RG3’s legs and Alfred Morris’ decisive running will keep the Skins close enough, but I expect Peyton Manning to rebound at home. He will demand proper adjustments from his Broncos, and I suspect they respond in kind.

I’ll have some thoughts on Washington safety Brandon Meriweather’s suspension appeal in this week’s $.10. Teaser: the NFL made a huge mistake. 

Broncos 47, Ethnic Slurs 33 

Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5): My son Layne loves to go through the games with me to try and show off his 8-year old football knowledge. We got to this game and he declared “It’s the two A teams.”

Immediately I started humming the theme song from The A Team, one of the most influential shows of my formative years. God I loved that show! For my pre-adolescent mind, it was the first time where I grasped how people with different skills can work together to solve a common problem. Even though Murdock was crazy and B.A. was churlish and intimidating, they could be integral parts of the same team.

Sure, the car crashes were outrageous and despite thousands of rounds of ammunition being fired, nobody ever died. But I’ve never forgotten the spirit of the show, of maximizing the usage of what specialties each team member offers.

The Falcons need that can-do spirit that the A Team embraced. Both Roddy White and Julio Jones are out, and Steven Jackson is still hobbled. Their offensive line looks like they need Mr. T to help bolster the ranks. Their defense looked improved last week, but that was winless Tampa Bay. Arizona has some pretty good weapons to fire back against the other A team, including spry rookie Andre Ellington. I’m not sure Falcons coach Mike Smith has enough Hannibal Smith to him. The Falcons need some unorthodox creativity to their game to handle a very good Cardinals defense (minus last week’s game) while being so shorthanded. Paging the spirit of George Peppard…

Cardinals 23, Falcons 17 

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (+9.5): Green Bay has rampant injury issues, but they’re still very easy to like here. The Vikings tried switching to Josh Freeman at quarterback, but he responded by turning in the worst score for a QB in the history of Pro Football Focus’ grading.

Now a possible concussion for Freeman reinstalls Christian Ponder as the starter. Ponder has to wonder, “Was I really bad enough to make them turn to that guy?” Yes you were, Christian, yes you were. It would help Ponder if the Vikings remember they have the best running back in the game behind him, a fact they curiously overlooked on Monday. I do think Adrian Peterson finds success here, but not nearly as much success as Aaron Rodgers finds against a Minnesota defense that doesn’t play together as a unit very well despite having decent talent.

Packers 33, Vikings 20 

Byes: Indianapolis, Chicago, Houston, Baltimore, San Diego, Tennessee

Monday Night

Seattle at St. Louis (+10.5): With Sam Bradford out for the year, most people expect complete doom and gloom for the Rams. While I’m no fan of replacement Kellen Clemens, it’s hard to imagine the Rams offense being less efficient with him in place of Bradford.

I went back and watched the Rams\' game against Dallas earlier this season (prepping for the Lions-Cowboys tilt) and what I saw from Bradford was disturbing. He showed zero ability to anticipate throws and consistently delivered the ball late and slightly off-target. Other than a brief stretch the last two weeks before he got hurt, that’s pretty much the story on Bradford. No, the Rams have not given him much help, but Bradford was holding back the offense.

I’m not sure Clemens does any better, and it’s certainly a tough assignment to face the vicious Seattle defense in his first start. This is not likely to end well for the home team. They’re already desperate enough to try and coax Brett Favre out of retirement after signing Brady Quinn. Just say no!

Seahawks 24, Rams 10

Betting recap:

New York Giants +5.5 for 250

San Francisco -16.5 for 500

New Orleans -11.5 or 250 

College Games

BYU 29, Boise State 27

Oklahoma 24, Texas Tech 20

Texas A&M 30, Vanderbilt 23

South Carolina 26, Missouri 24

Stanford 34, Oregon State 24