This is one of the weakest slates of games I can recall. It’s a strange mélange of untimely bye weeks by playoff contenders, inter-conference games with little sizzle, and relatively lopsided meetings between some have and have-nots.
Last Week: 11-2. That’s right, I’m hot baby! 81-39 on the season
Gambling Update: What makes Week 8 even sweeter than the 11-2 mark, and the awesome comeback win by my Lions, is how well I did with my wagers. I put a total of 1,000 Uzbek som on three games, and all three came home winners. For the first time all year, all my bets hit. I’m still in the hole, however. After starting with 10,000 som, I now hold 6,000 of the Uzbek currency in my hot little hands.
Thursday Game
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+2.5): Two teams with arrows pointing in decidedly opposite directions square off under the lights in Miami. The Bengals are rapidly ascending many a power ranking, having won four in a row. Three of those games came against the Dolphins’ fellow AFC East teams, with a road win over the Lions mixed in for good measure.
Quarterback Andy Dalton is a strong candidate for AFC Offensive Player of the Month. He’s on fire with 11 TDs in the last three games, including four to Marvin Jones last week. But another reason why the Bengals are playing so well is their offensive line. A week after shutting down one of the best D-lines in Detroit, they held the excellent Jets front to just one sack.
This makes Cincinnati a very difficult matchup for the reeling Dolphins, losers of four in a row after winning their first three contests. The strength of both Cincy lines is more than enough to carry the day. Miami is a team with some decent young talent, but they lack a real identity or leadership presence at this point. They’re not going to beat these Bengals without someone (Ryan Tannehill? Cameron Wake?) really ramping up the collective soul of the team.
I will have commentary on the Jonathan Martin AWOL situation in this week’s $.10
Bengals 29, Dolphins 20 for 500 som
Sunday Best
New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5): The Jets are nothing if not predictable. They alternate wins and losses, with four of each. They alternate strong offensive performances. Check their point production over the last six games: 27, 13, 30, 6, 30, and 9.
New Orleans is 6-1 but I’m still not sold on their defense. I know, it’s probably time to admit I was wrong about Rob Ryan and the transformation to a 3-4 producing disaster. This one is a test for them though. Rob’s brother Rex is doing a great job with an under-talented roster, and he knows all the wrinkles and gimmicks that his twin is going to try.
I think New York’s offensive pattern holds up. Between a rebound there and the struggles the Drew Brees offense has outside in the elements, I like the home team to pull off the surprise.
Jets 26, Saints 24
Sunday Rest
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+2.5): The Ravens won the first meeting 14-6 in a dreadfully boring affair. Since that Week 2 contest, the Browns have a new No. 1 receiver, an upgraded starting QB, and no more Trent Richardson and his typical 18 carries for 58 yard plodding.
Look for another relatively boring defensive slugfest. These defenses are both really good, albeit inconsistent in coverage. Joe Haden can neutralize Torrey Smith, but I don’t think the Ravens can handle Josh Gordon, not with Jason Campbell slinging the pigskin. I would pick the Browns outright if not for two factors: the Ravens are coming off a bye, and the defending champs desperately need a win. The Browns lost a major weapon in return man Travis Benjamin too. Unless you live in these local television markets, avert your eyes on this one. There could very well be 45 carries for under 110 yards here.
Ravens 16, Browns 14
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7): The Steelers really let me down with their poor play last week. I thought they were on the right track once again after a pair of solid wins, but they laid a giant egg in Oakland.
Having said that, you can’t get much more divergent than the styles of Oakland and New England, and Pittsburgh matches up a lot better with the Patriots than they did the Raiders. Terrelle Pryor is unpredictable and mobile, and the Raiders have good speed at wideout. New England lacks speed outside, while Tom Brady is no threat to run 93 yards in half a season, let alone one play.
I like the emergence of Aaron Dobson, the one receiver who appears to have any chemistry at all with Brady. The Pats defense is a tough matchup for the Pittsburgh offense, too. I think this will be a close, ugly, sloppy game punctuated by a couple of big plays and one game-breaking drive. Advantage to the home team.
Patriots 19, Steelers 13 for 250 som
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-7.5): Ladies and gentlemen, it’s time to pack away any preconceived notions you may have had about these Atlanta Falcons. This is not even close to the game team that has been a NFC power the past few seasons. Their injuries have robbed them of that strong identity, and an offensive line that is barley functional has put a chill on Matty Ice.
It’s that offensive line that presents the biggest challenge for Atlanta in this game. The Carolina front is loaded with talent, and said talent plays very well as a unit. This is a bad all-around Xs and Os matchup for the reeling Falcons, particularly on the road. With the confidence the Panthers offense has right now, this one could be ugly.
Panthers 30, Falcons 17
Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+3): On a night where the Rams defense sacked Russell Wilson seven times and hit him more often than they didn’t on dropbacks, a game where they held the Seahawks to seven first downs and 135 total yards, the Rams still lost. Let that soak in; the Rams defense had one of the most dominant performances we are going to see this entire decade and still managed to lose, at home no less. The Titans have a better offensive line than Seattle, a better receiving corps than Seattle, and have the benefit of rest from their bye week. Bad confluence of circumstances for the Rams, who may not win another game all season.
Titans 20, Rams 13
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+2.5): Here’s a little knowledge from one of the more insightful football guys I know, Jayson Braddock.
Robert Mathis (11.5) has as many sacks as the Texans\' top 3 leaders in sacks combined: Watt 4.5, Mercilus 4.5, & Antonio 2.5
— Jayson Braddock (@JaysonBraddock) October 30, 2013
If you’re looking for a reason beyond the QB struggles, or the offensive line injuries, or the truly awful safety play, why the Texans are 2-5 going on 0-8, it’s that lack of production from the defensive front.
This is basically Houston’s last stand. No doubt they’ll break out the letterman jackets and hope to harness the spirit of two straight AFC South titles. I suspect they’ll play quite well coming off their bye week. They even catch a major break in facing the Colts in Indy’s first game in more than a decade without star wideout Reggie Wayne.
I still think the Colts prevail; they’re a clearly better team and one that does an excellent job of focusing on itself, not the opponent. I strongly believe that helps prevent letdown games. But don’t get overconfident here. JJ Watt is capable of winning this game by himself as long as Case Keenum doesn’t lose it.
Colts 30, Texans 27
San Diego Chargers at Washington Ethnic Slurs (+1): In the time it takes me to walk from my living room to my kitchen, get out a cooking pot, fill it with water and turn the stove on, with a side trip to the pantry to grab some Triscuits, the Ethnic Slurs had gone from being ahead 21-14 to trailing Denver 31-21.
It takes a special kind of bad defense to give up that many points in that short of a time span. Philip Rivers and the Chargers are not the Broncos, but they’re capable of scoring a lot of points too. I don’t like the concept of the cross-country travel for San Diego, but a lesser Chargers team beat a vastly superior Washington team the last time these two squared off in our nation’s capital. Of course that was in 2005 and Drew Brees was leading the Chargers, but Brees threw three INTs and still beat a Slurs team bound for the playoffs anyway.
Chargers 40, Ethnic Slurs 30 for 250 som
Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10.5): After their soul-crushing loss to Detroit, the injury-ravaged Cowboys get a soft landing. At least the Vikings should be a nice rebound game.
I’m not so sure. With all their defensive injuries, this Dallas team is a shell of what they should be. They ended the Detroit game playing their fourth and fifth safeties and their bottom two corners. Their line was largely overwhelmed by Detroit, and the brightest spot for the Vikings this season remains the offense line. Adrian Peterson only needs a crack and he can break the Cowboys’ back.
The most intriguing aspect of this game is how Dez Bryant behaves after his double nuclear meltdown in Detroit. My take on his antics: even if we was trying to be positive, there isn’t a person with a brain who is going to respond to that gesticulation and franticness with anything other than enmity and anger. The fact he doesn’t grasp that speaks to how precarious Bryant remains as an elite talent. The skills are certainly there, but it’s hard to depend on them when his ego is that fragile.
Cowboys 34, Vikings 26 for 250 som
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-16.5): This is a dog of a game, so I thought instead of wasting bandwith breaking down why the Seahawks will dominate, I’d share what’s going on as I write this.
I’m sitting in a coffee shop in Holland MI, playing the stereotype of the anguished professional writer in full force. Of course the headphones are on and the music is blaring. The song “Just Dropped In (To See What Condition My Condition is In) by Kenny Rogers came on. Somehow the good folks at Spotify ascertained that I really like that song based on my musical history.
I want to know how in the hell they came up with that. Yeah, I really do like that song. A lot. But my Spotify profile is dominated by Finnish folk metal like Turisas and Korpiklaani, older metal by the likes of Iron Maiden and Deep Purple, and aggressive new rock from Stone Sour, Five Finger Death Punch and Avenged Sevenfold. Where in the wide world of music does Kenny Rogers fit into that sonic equation?
Because I know you want to know, the next song that came up was Halestorm’s “Here’s To Us”, and I’m trying very hard to not scream out the obscenities as I hum along. The older ladies at the table across the aisle are more than a little nervous.
Seahawks 27, Buccaneers 3
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+3): I cannot explain this one because it just won’t make sense. When I sat down to evaluate this game I was overwhelmed with the feeling that the Bills are somehow going to win this game outright. Don’t ask me how, just watch it happen!
Bills 20, Chiefs 16
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-2.5): Getting Nick Foles back at quarterback gives the Eagles a much better chance, but I believe this matchup will be decided by how well the Eagles defense plays against the Oakland offense. The Raiders are running the ball with confidence, thanks in part to the legit read-option skills of Terrelle Pryor. With the endemic tackling issues on the Philly defense, Pryor is a serious problem.
The Eagles can win if Lesean McCoy has a big day, but that won’t be easy. Oakland held Pittsburgh to 35 yards rushing on 19 carries, and they rank fourth in the league in yards per rush defense. That fourth improves to first if you just look at the last month. I expect McCoy to break off one big one, but it will take more than one. Oakland will cement the AFC West as the best division in football while confirming that no NFC East team will win more than 3 games all season outside of that putrid division.
Raiders 24, Eagles 21
Byes: Arizona, Detroit, New York Giants, Denver, San Francisco, Jacksonville
Monday Night
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-11.5): This is the only game on the Week 9 docket featuring two teams with winning records. Savor that statistic while you can, Bears fans, because this is the last time your team will hold that distinction for quite some time.
It’s time for Bears fans to come to the realization that years of bad drafting by former GM Jerry Angelo and iffy picking by current GM Phil Emery have left this team completely bereft of functional depth at just about every position. When guys like Lance Briggs, Jay Cutler and Henry Melton go down, the Bears don’t have anyone to even come remotely close to filling those shoes.
On the other hand, look at how the Packers keep unearthing functional depth from seemingly out of nowhere. Their injury report most weeks is longer than the healthy report, but they continue to press forward and adapt. It’s a testament to GM Ted Thompson and shrewd talent development by Mike McCarthy’s coaching staff.
That really pays off here. As long as Aaron Rodgers stays upright, the Packers have very little to fear in these wounded Bears. This might be one of those Monday nighters where you can go to bed at halftime and not worry about missing much.
Packers 38, Bears 21
Betting recap:
Cincinnati -2.5 for 500
Minnesota +10.5 for 250
Pittsburgh +7 for 250
San Diego -1 for 250
College Games
Florida State 30, Miami 17
Michigan State 24, Michigan 23
Texas Tech 38, Oklahoma State 33
Northern Illinois 58, UMass 10
Georgia 36, Florida 30