Last Week: 1-3. The only game I got correct was the San Francisco 49ers winning at the Green Bay Packers.
In the other games, I opted to pick against the team with the better quarterback, and I got burned. This weekend, however, finding the clearly better QB in every game is not so easy.
- San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-9.5)
I firmly believe the Chargers have a good chance of winning in Denver. Here’s 5 reasons why:
1. They already have won in Denver. One month ago to the day of this game, the Chargers pelted the Broncos 27-20. It was a must-win game (at the time) for both teams, as the Broncos were still battling the Chiefs for the AFC West title.
2. Six seeds, which the Chargers are here, are 6-2 against one seeds since 2005 (thanks to Sirius NFL Radio for that stat). It’s often inexplicable, but so was Baltimore beating Denver a year ago.
3. The Chargers are peaking at the right time. Their running game is clicking with Ryan Mathews, Ronnie Brown and Danny Woodhead all healthy. Diversity means trouble for the Denver D. The offensive line is creating major movement up front. And the San Diego wideouts block as well as any unit in the league.
4. Since 2006, teams that went 13-3 in the regular season and hosted a divisional round game are just 5-8. Guess who went 13-3?
5. Turnovers matter in playoff games. San Diego gave the ball away 21 times in the regular season, while Denver was guilty of 26 giveaways.
The Broncos still have the better QB in Peyton Manning, but it’s not as big of a gap as many think. Philip Rivers is playing as well as he ever has, and the Chargers defense knows how to fluster Peyton. They’ve done an excellent job in keeping him off the field, holding the ball for over 38 minutes in both prior meetings this season.
Having said all that, watch Manning come out and throw for 406 yards and 5 TDs as the Broncos win a shootout.
Broncos 38, Chargers 32
- Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-7)
A lot of times, pundits like myself like to point to the cost of an emotional victory. Here’s one that Colts fans will not like after last week’s unbelievable comeback win over Kansas City:
The 5 worst scoring outputs of the Andrew Luck era all were on the road following very emotional wins the week before. Hmm...
— Scott Kacsmar (@FO_ScottKacsmar) January 9, 2014
That includes last year’s playoff loss to Baltimore. Now they have to face the ultimate game prepping master in Bill Belichick, who has had an extra week to prepare (you’d better believe they prepped for both teams!).
The Colts cannot show up in New England and play one good half of football. Given that Andrew Luck’s QB rating is more than 15 percent lower in the first half than the second half for his career, that’s not likely to change, not outdoors in January against New England. Sorry.
Patriots 27, Colts 21
- New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-8)
This is another regular-season rematch, and the first meeting did not go well for New Orleans. The Seahawks pounded them 34-7 in Week 13.
Seattle came into that game off a bye week, just as they are this time. The Saints were coming off a road game on the east coast, having squeaked past Atlanta, and had to travel across the country without a home game in between.
In that game, Drew Brees averaged under four yards per pass. That was in spite of Seattle getting just one sack, though Michael Bennett did notch three QB hits. The Seahawks coverage shut down any sort of vertical attack, and the Saints had no counter for it.
This time around I expect the Saints to embrace the other offensive options. I see Brees hitting guys like Lance Moore and Darren Sproles on quick-hit routes that keep the chains moving and negate the pass rush. I also think we’ll see more of a power running game, and they won’t go away from it when the first five carries nets just 11 yards.
Unfortunately it will not be enough. Between the home cooking of the 12th man and the efficient creativity of Russell Wilson, there just aren’t enough points to be had for New Orleans to outscore the ungracious hosts.
Seahawks 31, Saints 21
- San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers (+1)
The first meeting was a defensive slugfest of epic proportions. I have a feeling this game will go the other direction.
The focus here is, which quarterback will be more effective in creating big plays against the opposing defense? And even though I like Colin Kaepernick a lot, this gleaning from Twitter is pretty telling:
Colin Kaepernick has 30 starts. Averages 300.7 pass yards, 100.3 rush yards in three vs. GB. Averages 186.9 and 30.5 in 27 other games.
— Michael David Smith (@MichaelDavSmith) January 8, 2014
In short, against defenses helmed by anyone other than Dom Capers, Kaepenick is a below-average quarterback. In the first meeting he managed just 91 passing yards and was sacked six times. Let’s say he doubles his passing output and cuts the sacks in half; that’s still just 182 yards and 3 sacks. That’s not going to win on the road in the playoffs.
I worry about Newton making poor reads and turning the ball over, but I think he makes a play or two with his legs and gets the job done. The Panthers win on a long field goal from Graham Gano in the final five minutes.
Panthers 20, 49ers 17
- All lines courtesy of Covers.com as of 7:15 AM 1/10/14
