2014 NFL Team & Draft Preview

[RealGM Articles]

This report will highlight team needs and war room strategies including possible decisions that will be made that will ultimately have a direct effect on the short and/or long term fortunes of the team in question. Of course I will be injecting my own opinion at times throughout this report, with comments about the front office and free agency moves, plus notable quotes, past and present, some complementary and some not so complimentary. 

The NFL draft is never an exact science, but like in any profession there are good managers and bad managers.  Put into football speak, some teams are good on draft day (and in free agency) and some are bad.  I respect those who do their job well while continuing to shake my head (and write cynical comments) about those who can’t seem to get things right.  Why certain teams, owners, and GM’s keep making mistakes is beyond comprehension, but that is what makes covering the draft all these years so much fun. 

- Houston Texans:           

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Houston was in “purge the roster” mode under their new coach, signing only average DL Jerrell Powe and rotational DB Kendrick Lewis.  Losses include RB Tate, TE Daniels, DL Earl Mitchell, Antonio Smith and Terrell McClain, and four LB’s including Darryl Sharpton and Joe Mays.  Once QB Fitzgerald was signed Matt Schaub was traded to Oakland. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: QB, 2 DL, 2 LB’s, TE, OL, CB and DB depth, RB.  QB is obvious.  J.J. Watt is lonely along the DL.  The Texans have needed a DT/NT with size for a long time, and now need multiple bodies.  Joe Mays and Darryl Sharpton overachieved at ILB.  Both are gone, and Brian Cushing will be off yet another serious injury!  TE Graham was decent but another player needs to be added.  The new regime may scrap the zone blocking scheme, meaning new OL must be added.  Will CB Joseph return?  The other CB’s are Kareem Jackson and Brice McCain.  RB Foster may return healthy but other than the untested Ray Graham and the smaller Dennis Johnson there’s not much else available.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Rick Smith remains.  In the past he worked closely with not only Gary Kubiak but also DC Wade Phillips.  He’s not afraid to trade, although many of the trades have come later in the draft.  Bill O’Brien may be a rookie HC but the guess here is that he will have a fairly decent say in the draft room.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 1, 33, 65. 

Houston has 11 overall picks in this draft, giving them a chance to forget all about last season.  The Texas traded Matt Schaub to Oakland for a 6^th round pick.  Houston has compensatory picks at the end of the 4^th, 6^th and 7^th round (last pick of the draft).

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: All the talk about taking a QB seems to have died down.  Houston will have plenty of offers to trade the pick, but already armed with 11 draft choices, I don’t see the value in trading down unless the bounty includes multiple picks in this deep draft, plus a 1^st round draft pick for next year.  If they stay here the pick looks like it will be Clowney.  If they trade down then it’s to get a QB or one of the top OL.

REST OF THE DRAFT: The needs above must be met.  If it’s Clowney 1^st, then expect a QB next and hopefully a LB, OL or TE at pick #65.  The way the rumor mill is right now, that 2^nd round pick might still net them Teddy Bridgewater.  Adding Clowney and Bridgewater to a team that is one year removed from thinking Super Bowl would be outstanding.  A solid ILB or a highly rated OG should be easily available at the top of the 3^rd round.  Don’t rule out a trade UP from pick #33 in order to grab a QB.

- St. Louis Rams:    

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): The Rams brought back Roger Saffold after he supposedly failed his physical in Oakland.  Jeff Fisher and WR Kenny Britt reunite, and Britt is young enough to be an asset to this offense if he improves his on and off-field work habits.  CB Finnegan did not play as well as expected and he’s gone.  Bounty-Gate ringleader Gregg Williams is an upgrade as the new Defensive Coordinator.  His defenses tend to play more press defense, and that is much needed here with the Rams.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 1-2 right side OL, safety, OLB and OLB depth, elite CB, young back-up QB, extra RB.  I’ve noted elite CB.  The CB’s are young and another elite player might help IF he is a cover CB.  Any other needs here are just to add depth.  RG Dahl is gone.  RT Barksdale could use an upgrade.  Dunbar has done what he could at OLB but STL could add a real stud here, preferably again with cover skill.  I’m not completely sold on SS McDonald and even if he performs the FS is Rodney McLeod and the back-ups are not at all serviceable.  It’s time to get serious about adding a young signal caller.  Unless Richardson is out of the doghouse an extra RB could be considered.  Removed from this list is elite WR.  Kenny Britt adds to an already decent group and the Rams have far greater issues to deal with, as noted above.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: When Jeff Fisher was hired the Rams not only got a coach, they got someone with a vision.  Fisher, GM Les Snead and COO Kevin Demoff have combined to give the Rams a master plan for the 1^st time in decades!  Fisher’s track record is to pay attention to the DL and ending the draft with more picks than when they started.  Given that the Rams already have 12 picks now, perhaps they should trade up, and even on day #3 of the draft. 

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 2, 13, 44, 75.

As usual with a Jeff Fisher coached team, the Rams have plenty of picks.  They begin this draft with a league high 12, including the 2^nd overall pick obtained as final payment from Washington in the RG III deal.  Six of the picks are in the final two rounds, including a trio of compensatory picks. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The OL will be addressed early, but the hope is the 2^nd of the early picks is used wisely for a quality safety or an OLB.  The Rams want to trade down, but if they do they could miss out on OT Robinson and OT Matthews.  They could take a risk and trade back a few spots, hoping one of the OT prospects remain on the board.  Getting an elite OT along with either Clinton-Dix or Pryor at safety with the 13^th pick would fill two immediate needs!  Why mess around?  They are looking at WR but that should wait as they have depth at that position.  Other looks could be LB Mack (2^nd), CB (13^th) or LB Shazier (trade back from pick #13).  Don’t be surprised if the Rams trade at least once during the 1^st round!

REST OF THE DRAFT: The Rams can easily fill all needs listed above, especially with just one trade back.  The Rams can easily double up at some positions, and of course I expect Jeff Fisher to take additional DL at some point during the draft.

- Jacksonville Jaguars:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Bad teams can’t get by with drafts of five players.  The Jags did that for years under the former GM and paid the price.  This free agency has seen them add several players who can help with the transition, including RB Gerhart, OG Beadles, DL Hood, Bryant and Clemons, LB Dekoda Watson and safety Sherrod Martin.  DL benefited the most.  Maybe one could argue that RB Maurice Jones-Drew is a loss, but he’s replaceable.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: QB, 2 OL, 1-2 CB’s and DB depth, RB, 2 OLB’s WR, pass rushing specialist, #2 TE.  Chad Henne did what he could but his best role would be as a priority NFL back-up.  Even with OG Beadles there are not enough starting caliber OL on this team.  Remember, OC Meester is retiring.  As noted above, the Jags added three CB’s in the ’13 draft.  Only one was rated by highly by me so another dip into the CB market is necessary.  Young legs as overall depth are concerns at RB.  The OLB’s read Geno Hayes, John Lotulelei and Russell Allen.  An upgrade or two would be welcome.  Justin Blackmon is on suspension and while he’s a solid #1 WR on the field he is one more suspension away from a long vacation from the NFL.  The Jags need to plan ahead for his departure.  As documented, sack pressure must improve defensively.  Another pass rusher in addition to the free agency signings is recommended.  TE Lewis runs more cold than hot.  Someone to assist him and eventually replace him is needed. 

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: New GM David Caldwell made his first trade in the ’13 draft at the top of round #4, the round I call the “homework” round.  He traded DOWN.  The past regime consistently traded up, often uselessly.  I suspect that with 11 picks there will be more trades this time around, possibly beginning with pick #39

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 3, 39, 70.

The Jags have a rare (for them) chance to rebuild their roster with 11 total picks.  They have four extra picks in rounds 3-5.  Two are from Baltimore (OT Monroe).  One is from SF (trade of QB Gabbert).  One is from the Lions (WR Mike Thomas).

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Could the Jags make a late attempt to move up to get DE Clowney?  If not, the general consensus is that they take one of the OT’s in this spot.  WR Watkins or LB Mack might get attention as well.

REST OF THE DRAFT: With 11 picks, could pick #39 be packaged to move back into the 1^st round to get a QB?  I believe that is precisely what they may do, with Pick #39 too late to get the top three (or four counting Carr).  Of course if they want a different QB then they can wait, and go CB here.  The Jags took lower level talent from my draft board in ’13.  That shouldn’t happen in this deep draft.  Pick #70 seems like a good time to address RB unless a rated CB or OLB falls that far.  Many needs need filling.

- Cleveland Browns:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Brian Hoyer is left at QB.  Ben Tate is an instant upgrade at RB.  Nate Burlson add WR depth.  OL Paul McQuistan was added.  Carlos Dansby is a good player but why not just re-sign younger LB D’Qwell Jackson?  Adding Donte Whitner does not quite make up for losing solid safety T.J. Ward.  Mike Pettine is the new Head Coach.  He’s had a successful, though short career as a Defensive Coordinator.  Kyle Shanahan and his “less than outstanding” ability to work well with others is the new Defensive Coordinator.  Co-conspirator’s Banner and Lombardi were axed early in ’14.  The young and very self-confident Ray Farmer is the sole GM.  

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: QB, RT and RG, #2 WR and WR depth, ILB and LB depth, CB, RB, DE, safety depth.  Cleveland must take a QB early.  OL needs are real on the right side.  The WR need behind stud Josh Gordon is real but can be addressed later thanks to the deep crop.  Even with Dansby, ILB especially looks weak.  A replacement for CB Skrine and competition for FS Gipson are the needs at DB.  Is Ben Tate going to be the sole RB?  No one else on the current roster can help.  There’s some youth and maybe talent along the DL but by no means are players such as Billy Winn, John Hughes and Armonty Bryant sure things. 

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: The recent draft history is ugly!  Remember, Josh Gordon was a July supplemental pick and not part of an April draft.  Cleveland panicked in ’12, first trading four picks to move up one spot, and then trading back up to reach for QB Weeden and later drafting a DT who went unrated on my board in the 3^rd round who himself was expecting to be drafted on Saturday, not Friday!  Last year the Browns did not even participate, trading out of the early rounds.  Their third pick was #175!  This, along with the Richardson trade does set them up for a draft bonanza this May.   This is essentially all up to one person and that person is NOT Kevin Costner!  How will new GM Ray Farmer perform?

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 4, 26, 35, 71, 83.

Cleveland has ten picks in this draft, including a whopping seven of the 1^st 127.  Pick #26 is from Indy for RB Trent Richardson.  Draft day trades with rivals Pittsburgh and Baltimore got them extra picks in the 3^rd and 4^th rounds. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: As of this writing, Cleveland can have their pick of QB’s with the 4^th choice.  I think they will take another postion here, and trade UP from #26 to take their QB of the future.  Logical trading partners are Baltimore at #17 and GB at #21.  Do they go WR Watkins, OT’s Robinson or Matthews or LB Mack with the 4^th pick?  If they do select a QB, then pick #26 could easily be used for one of their other top areas of need.

REST OF THE DRAFT: One scenario I would like is to go OT, QB and then WR Matthews at #35.  They might also consider one of the top five CB’s at #35, and there’s a chance one could fall that far.  By the time Cleveland picks at #127 let’s hope they have addressed all of the bolded area needs with highly rated personnel. 

- Oakland Raiders:        

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Oakland went from an astounding $49 million in dead money in ’13 to a league high $65 million (give or take a few dollars) in ’14.  Letting LT Veldheer and DE Houston go was a poor start.  Oakland rebounded to some extent by signing OT Penn, OT Howard and interior OL Boothe for the offense, and DE Tuck and a couple filler types for the DL.  James Jones should help at WR, and is better than the now departed Jacoby Ford.  Jones-Drew certainly adds RB depth.  LB Woodley is young enough to produce and upgrade Oakland at LB.  Last year’s rent a CB’s Tracy Porter and Mike Jenkins left.  Carlos Rogers could help.  Every year Oakland adds a QB.  This year it’s Matt Schaub, via a trade with the Texans.  No coaching changes were made.  Is that a good thing?

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2 DB’s, Feature WR and an extra WR, 1-2 DL, QB, OL, impact TE.  Oakland has regressed mightily stopping the pass under the current staff.  The secondary is a mess, even with recent free agency signings.  Oakland has complimentary WR parts but lack a true go-to guy.  The DL is weaker and might not be able to hold up at the point of attack.  This QB need is placed 4^th because there is too much roster work to do before adding a young signal caller.  There “might” be enough OL talent on the current roster but it wouldn’t hurt to add someone, perhaps at OG.  Oakland drafted two TE’s in ’13.  Rivera had a nice debut.  What is his ceiling?

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: For the second year in a row Oakland has GUTTED their roster.  Once again some older vets have been acquired, but ultimately it’s draft success that must rebuild this roster.  GM Reggie McKenzie will call all of the shots and no doubt his pedigree is to add and not subtract picks.  He did just that in ’13, but still took CB Hayden too high, leaving higher rated talent on the board.  Reggie has to do better this time around.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 5, 36, 67.

Oakland has picks in rounds 1-4, but no picks in rounds 5-6.  They lost their 5^th round pick thanks to the Matt Flynn debacle.  The 6^th round pick was traded to Houston for Matt Schaub.  The QB trifecta completes with an extra 7^th for QB Palmer (Arizona).

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: No one knows.  It’s too early for a CB.  I would take WR Watkins or trade down if he’s gone by pick #5.

REST OF THE DRAFT: When does the trade down occur?  Can they get a taker at pick #5?  Getting Watkins and a feature DB early, then trading down at pick #67 would be ideal.  A draft dropping DL or an “elite” QB could be considered at #36.  The OL can be addressed later, as can an extra WR in this WR loaded draft.  Doubling up at DB is essential and not debatable!

- Atlanta Falcons:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): OG Asamoah and swing OL Carimi arrive on offense and DT’s Tyson Jackson and Paul Soliai hope to solidify a less than solid DL.  Average CB Josh Wilson had 93 tackles last year for Washington.  Devin Hester could jump start the return game.  The elite TE Tony Gonzalez retired.  Scott Pioli is the new Assistant GM.  His overall track record is not that impressive.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Impact DE 1-2 OL, including a LT, impact LB, safety, long term RB, extra TE, back-up QB.  Atlanta has work to do in reshaping this roster.  No team needs DE Clowney more than this one.  Can they make it happen?  Sam Baker is hardly an elite LT and he’s coming off surgery.  The entire OL underachieved in ’13 and needs rated talent.  A pair of undrafted rookies made their mark at LB in ’13.  That’s nice, but this unit needs a statement LB.  Even before the release of FS Thomas DeCloud an upgrade was necessary.  Atlanta needs to find a younger, every down RB.  ’13 rookie Toilolo is the new #1 TE but he was injury prone in college and every NFL team needs at least two options at this position.  Dominique Davis is the back-up QB.  

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Will there be too many voices in the Falcon draft room now that Scott Pioli has been added?  GM Dimitroff has never been afraid to make a splash trade.  He wants DE Clowney in the worst way but has to now wait until Houston makes up his mind.  With ten draft picks I do expect some trading to take place. 

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 6, 37, 68.

Atlanta has ten picks.  They have their original seven plus compensatory picks in the 4^th and 7^th rounds (139, 253, 255).

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: If possible, Atlanta will trade with the Rams to get Clowney.  If that can’t happen then they probably do DL over OL because they are not seeing the same urgency as I am in moving Baker from LT to RT.  Of course if OT’s Robinson and/or Matthews are available then Atlanta can jump right in and fill this critical need. 

REST OF THE DRAFT: Atlanta selected four NR (unranked) players at the back end of the ’13 draft.  The three defensive players combined for 22 tackles and all are buried on the depth chart.  QB Renfree sat.  Atlanta can’t afford a repeat performance.  Can the Falcons find a way to get immediate impact at both OT and DE?  At least one highly rated LB or safety will be available at pick #68.  I expect GM Dimitroff to be active on draft day and would encourage him to trade a pick in the 2^nd, 3^rd or 4^th round of the ’15 draft in order to fill these critical needs.  Why?  Because Atlanta has to think big, and if all goes well they will be drafting late in each round in the ’15 draft instead of early like this year.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:     

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): QB Luke McCown has already been anointed the starter over Glennon.  Reserve WR Louis Murphy and TE Brandon Myers add depth, but will not make up for the loss of traded WR Mike Williams.  OT Anthony Collins should start.  Tampa did suffer multiple OL defections, including OT Penn, OG’s Joseph and Lawsen, OC Zuttah and swing OL Carmini.  Defensively, DE Michael Johnson could give a lift to the pass rush.  CB’s Verner and Jenkins will be a nice fit in the new scheme.  Tampa did not pick up CB Revis and his bloated salary.  Safety Major Wright has been reunited with HC Smith.  Former Cal coach Jeff Tedford is the new Offensive Coordinator.  Former Viking Head Coach Leslie Frazier is the new Defensive Coordinator.  Expect the pass D% to remain over 60% with the softer cover two scheme.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: WR, right side OL and possibly OC, OLB, safety extra DL. WR jumps to the job of the list as after Vincent Jackson there is NOTHING.  RG Joseph is gone and RT Dotson is replaceable with the right selection.  Dekoda Watson left and there is no OLB on the roster who should be a starter.  LB depth as a whole is weak.  FS Goldson had a rocky Tampa debut and there is currently no one else available at that position.  Tampa added two DL but could use one more.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Not noted above is that Jason Licht is the new GM.  Licht has paid his dues and has been with a few organizations who have drafted well.  It will be interesting to see what his philosophy about trading in the draft will be.  His last four years was spent with Arizona, a team that never traded much.  Still, Tampa could use more than six draft picks.  Expectations are that HC Lovie Smith will play an active role as well on draft day.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 7, 38, 69.

Tampa has six picks in this draft.  Their early 4^th round pick is with the Jets as final payment for now ex-Buccaneer Darelle Revis.  They recouped their 6^th round pick (obtained OL Gabe Carimi) with the trade of WR Mike Williams to the Buffalo Bills. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Will Sammy Watkins fall to them?  Are they more interested in Mike Evans?  WR is Tampa’s clear #1 need and unless they want LB Mack or maybe one of the top safeties the Bucs draft a WR.  Another possibility is to trade back a bit (10, 14, 16 for example) so that they can end up with more than just six selections in this deep draft.  Draft analysts seem to think Tampa will take a QB at pick #7.  I think it’s all a smokescreen.  QB does NOT appear on my need board, at least for now.

REST OF THE DRAFT: My choice would be to package 38 or 69 in a trade down unless the absolute right person is there.  OLB might be the toughest to fill after the 2^nd round, at least with a highly rated draftee.  OL is higher on the need board and many RT’s or RG’s should be available.  It will be interesting to see how new GM Licht operates in his 1^st draft as the main guy.  

- Minnesota Vikings:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Minny lost back-up RB Gerhart and added former Jet OL Ducasse in a decent low-risk proposition.  Randall, Joseph and Wootton are in and Guion is out along the DL but Minny lost stud DE Jared Allen and is expected to lose longtime DL Kevin Williams.  LB Erin Henderson was released.  CB’s Cox and Munnerlyn will join youngsters Josh Robinson and Shaun Prater with former starter Cook off to SF.  Norv Turner joins Mike Zimmer’s staff as the new Offensive Coordinator.  He’s talented, but sacks allowed under his pass formations must be reduced.  George Edwards was the Miami LB coach and is the new Defensive Coordinator.  The one concern is the new DL coach, Robb Akey.  Robb was fired as the Head Coach of Idaho in ’12 and his teams never stopped the run.  He’s never had an NFL job!

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: QB, at least 2 OL, DE, and DL depth, DB and DB depth, cover LB, extra WR.  If you have three QB’s you have ZERO!  Minny needs a new direction at QB.  LG is a need, as is RT.  RT Loadholt is a liability in pass protection.  DE Allen will be missed.  The DL needs to add more impact players.  The LB’s have to do more than take up space.  There is room to upgrade at safety and maybe CB.  It wouldn’t hurt to add another rated WR.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Spielman has had a strong couple of years after a slow start.  In the past he has practically been the sole voice in the Vikings war room.  As I said in this report last year, he’s also known for a for a bit of deception (Kalil in the ’12 draft, Percy Harvin trade last year, etc.) so don’t believe anything he tells you!  I expect him to be active on an as needed basis on draft day.  It will be interesting to see how much input new HC Mike Zimmer has.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 8, 40, 72, 96.

Minny has eight picks.  They have pick #96 from Seattle as final payment for Percy Harvin.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Unless one of the top OT’s surprisingly falls to this slot the Vikings absolutely have to draft a QB.  In my opinion the best fits for THIS team are Teddy Bridgewater 1^st, and Blake Bortles 2^nd.  Spielman may roll the dice and either trade back from #8 or trade up from #40 but no matter what, these Vikings are pretenders without addressing this postion. 

REST OF THE DRAFT: There are voids along the DL and talent issues along the OL.  Depth at LB is an issue.  The pass D is high but some talent exists and Zimmer is a good defensive teacher.  If Minny comes out of this draft with one of the QB’s listed above, multiple rated OL and DL, plus a “cover” LB then they have done their job and then some! 

- Buffalo Bills:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Buffalo’s additions are more role players as opposed to actual starters.  OG Chris Williams will start, and LB’s Spikes and Rivers will either start or be expected to contribute in various packages.  WR Mike Williams came in a pre-draft trade.  Losing safety Byrd was expected, but unfortunate.  Jim Schwartz is the new Defensive Coordinator.  Perhaps that will be a plus for the run defense but how will the move impact the overall defense?  Buffalo finished 2^nd in the NFL in sacks and interceptions in ’13. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Run stoppers along the front seven, 2 DB’s, RT.  Mario Williams, Marcell Dareus and Kiki Alonzo are solid players, but where is the toughness vs. the run on this side of the ball?  FS Byrd must be replaced.  The current DB back-ups are filler types and depth could be added even with the free agency acquisitions.  RT Pears is not a quality starter.  

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Doug Whaley worked under Buddy Nix and succeeded Nix in May of ’13, after last year’s draft.  Draft ratings here have been average.  With HC Doug Marrone in his second year there could be more of a team effort for this draft.  Regardless, there is work to be done and talent evaluation must be at a premium.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 9, 41, 73.

Buffalo is down one pick after trading pick 185 to Tampa for WR Mike Williams.    

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Last year everyone was fooled when Buffalo traded back and then took QB Manuel.  This year the guesses are wild, and probably all incorrect.  Guesses range from trading up to get LB Mack, WR Watkins or WR Evans, or staying put and landing OT Matthews or TE Ebron.  I understand the TE need and could have included it above, but it clearly pales in my eyes when compared to my top two need areas.  Buffalo could trade down a few picks and still address their run D or DB need, while adding a pick or two.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Protect the young QB and address the needs listed above.  This is a simpler need board than what exists with most teams, so just focus!  I took WR off the need board with the trade for Mike Williams, but adding a more than solid WR on day #3 should be easy in this draft.  Another area of consideration could be OLB.  I may be letting the cat out of the bag, but if Buffalo makes the right moves on draft day there is no reason these Bills can’t make the playoffs, finally!

- Detroit Lions:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): The biggest addition was reliable WR Tate.  Depth was added along the DL, but not impact.  Injuries stunted the performances of WR Burleson and safety Delmas and both players were released.  Jim Caldwell is the new Head Coach.  Joe Lombardi (ex-Saints QB coach) is the new Offensive Coordinator.  Teryl Austin is the new Defensive Coordinator.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 217 CB’s (finally this number has been reduced!), OL, safety, LB, late WR, return specialist, PK.  My long time readers know all about what I think of the Lion’s not drafting a highly rated CB.  Maybe this will be the year?  Is undrafted rookie RT Waddle good enough to start?  The Lions needs to figure this out.  Maybe Detroit can upgrade at LG, where Rob Sims resides.  Glover Quin needs a partner at safety.  LB’s Levy and Tulloch are not household names, but it’s Ashlee Palmer and the other LB’s who could be supplanted by better talent.  A number of great options at WR will be available for the Lions.  The Lions have not had much success of late returning kicks.  PK Akers is not on the roster.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Unfortunately, the Lions DO have the same draft team in place.  This draft team has continued recent trends of a) drafting players with known injury records, b) drafting “me first” players who celebrate sacks and personal accomplishments over team goals, and c) ignoring rated CB’s despite years of bottom five pass D% play.  GM Mayhew had added input from HC Schwartz last year, especially since that Lions staff coached in the Senior Bowl.  As said in this report in ’13, “This is their last chance to make things right.  Can either of these guys be trusted with drafting correctly?”  New HC Jim Caldwell likely won’t have as much of a say on draft day.  Ansah and Warford had solid rookie seasons.  Now it’s time to draft a rated CB.  The Lions typically have not traded much in the early rounds of the draft.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 10, 45, 76.

The Lions have eight picks, including two compensatory picks at the end of the 4^th round.  They gave up their 5^th round pick to Jacksonville for WR Mike Thomas.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: You know the drill, so watch for WR Evans!  Yes, I would take CB Gilbert or maybe any top rated CB. Gilbert would fill the return specialist role as well.  Lion return specialists have been subpar for quite a few years.  The Lions could draft a highly rated safety instead of CB early, and for that matter may look in-state at Michigan OT Lewan.

REST OF THE DRAFT: They’ll draft a CB, even after taking three in ’12.  Aaron Colvin (Oklahoma) is coming off a serious injury so he figures to be right on the Lions’ radar screen.  In a more serious vein, the Lions must address OL and DB as these are far more serious needs than WR, especially after the signing of WR Tate.  Don’t underestimate Tate as strong #2 option as he is now on a team that features a more pass friendly offense! 

- Tennessee Titans:   

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Charlie Whitehurst replaces Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB.  Versatile Dexter McCluster and decent RT Oher were added.  RB Johnson was cut.  As expected, WR Britt left.  DE/pass rushing LB Shaun Phillips should add some juice up front.  Overachieving LB Woodward adds depth.  An already suspect secondary will miss solid CB Verner.  While Whisenhaut and Ray Horton have solid coaching resumes, the new Offensive Coordinator is Jason Michael.  He’s generally been only a tight ends coach. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2 LB’s, cover CB, NT, safety depth, QB decision, extra RB, extra WR,  late OL for depth.  Tennessee is likely moving to a 3-4 defensive alignment.  They don’t have enough quality LB’s right now to make that shift.  The pass D% won’t go down until a more active (fast, press style) CB is added.  The DL has some talent but lacks a NT for the new scheme.  An additional safety pick should be considered.  Is Jake Locker the guy?  Tennessee might wait and hope he can play all 16 games in ’14.  RB Johnson is gone.  It would help to add another player to the mix.  WR Britt is gone.  He underachieved, but Tennessee could still use additional depth.  Oher helps, but another OL should be added. 

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Ramon Webster begins year #3 in the war room.  He’s been pretty much the sole decision maker the 1^st two years.  HC Whisenhaut is respected so maybe there will be some sharing this time around.  Webster’s first two drafts were middle of the road.  My complaints are a lack of focus on true need areas and the overtrade for WR Hunter in the ’13 draft.  Webster won’t outsmart other GM’s on draft day but must make his limited number of selections in this draft count as otherwise glaring roster holes will remain.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 11, 42.

Tennessee has six picks.  They moved up for WR Hunter in the ’13 draft, giving up this year’s 3^rd round pick.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: You can easily get a LB or CB at #11.  I would move 11 for 17/77 or so, recouping that 3^rd round pick.  There will still be great choices left at #17.  If Tennessee is dead set on OLB Barr or CB Gilbert then they (providing one or both remains on the board) might have to pick at #11.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Tennessee’s needs are mostly defensive ones.  The bolded needs must be addressed 1^st, unless the Titans have a plan to draft an impact QB.  All other offensive needs should wait, as RB’s, WR’s and depth along the OL can be addressed mostly on the 3^rd day of the draft.

- New York Giants:        

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): The NYG have been active this March and April.    Offensively, RB Rashad Jennings is a nice addition, as is OT Geoff Schwartz.  OL John Jerry was a liability last year in Miami and OT Brown lost his job in New Orleans.  Can they contribute in a new setting?  Two OL are gone.  TE Myers was never a good fit.  WR Nicks was at least a solid #2 when healthy.  The NYG need to find his replacement.  ’13 rookie QB Nassib has company now with Josh Freeman on board.  The DL lost Tuck and Joseph, while adding Robert Ayers.  Jameel McClain is in at LB but Keith Rivers is out.  Adding Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and Walter Thurmond at DB is a bit of an upgrade.  The return game may benefit from safety/return specialist Demps and the super speedy but fumble prone Holiday.  Ben McAdoo (Green Bay) replaces Kevin Gilbride as Offensive Coordinator.  He was their QB coach.  Eli Manning will get a double dose of advice in ’14 with the hiring of former OSU OC and QB coach Danny Langdorf.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 1-2 LB’s, #2/3 WR, DL/sack specialist, OL, TE, safety, late RB.  It’s time for the NYG to select a LB early in the draft process.  LB play has held them back.  WR Randle could be the new #2 option but that does not mean the NYG should ignore finding more talented targets for Eli Manning.  Sack protection has tailed off lately.  Tuck is gone and the DL lacks depth and a companion for Pierre-Paul.  The OL showed its age last year.  Another young starter is needed.  I omitted TE as a need in earlier reports.  The NYG have very little proven TE talent on the current roster.  I question the starting safety talent on the roster.  With Wilson’s injury status the NYG might add a RB late in the draft.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Jerry Reese runs the draft and he knows what he’s doing.  He will continue to seek input from HC Coughlin as he makes selections.  The NYG use the best player available approach.  They do not often trade on draft day.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 12, 43, 74.

The NYG are without a 7^th round pick, but are happy with LB Beason.  Their compensatory pick is at the end of the 5^th round.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: It’s been over five years since the NYG have correctly addressed LB needs.  HC Coughlin prefers building from the inside out so drafting another DL is the likely route.  TE Ebron is on their radar screen and some people are saying they could look at DL Donald or OL Zack Martin.  They all fit, but I’d like them to strongly consider LB C.J. Mosley.

REST OF THE DRAFT: How about an EARLY LB.  Going DL/sack specialist, LB and WR or TE with the picks listed above would work.  Since the NYG tend to use the “best player available” approach, a draft dropping OL would be a solid choice as well.  This organization has been more active than usual, maybe because recent draft grades have tapered off a bit.  The NFC East is still wide open, so a focused draft by GM Reese could yield some immediate dividends. 

- Chicago Bears:  

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): As of April 23^rd Chicago has signed 16 players including DE’s Lamarr Houston and Jared Allen.  Chicago is serious about adding defensive pressure.  Many signees are rotational or filler types but safeties M.D. Jennings and Ryan Mundy might contribute on a more regular basis.  The biggest losses were back-up QB McCown, DT Melton and older situational sacker Julius Peppers.  Additional losses include DL Wootton and return specialist Devin Hester.  Releasing Punter Podlesh might be a good thing.  Paul Pasqualoni is the new Defensive Line coach. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: DT run stuffer, DB, back-up TE, short yardage RB to replace Michael Bush, #3 WR to challenge Earl Bennett, back-up QB, extra LB, extra safety, Punter, return specialist.  The DL added impact with Jared Allen but could use additional help in the middle of the line.  The pass D regressed badly in ’13 and is in need of early round impact.  Chicago signed two TE’s but still needs a real #2 option.  With Cutler’s recent injury history a back-up QB is essential.  Though a far lower priority, WR talent can easily be added in this draft.  Depth at LB and at safety wouldn’t hurt.  The Punter was just cut and Hester is gone.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Emery took over in ’12.  The previous regime was about as bad as any in the NFL.  Google Chicago’s 1^st round pick history and then close your eyes!  Emery’s initial draft has been only slightly better, with 1^st round choice McClellin not living up to his draft status but 2^nd round WR Jeffrey playing lights out in ’13.  The Bears took a chance by drafting OT Long and his four collegiate starts but so far Long looks like a real keeper.  Emery should have better understanding of what 2^nd year HC Trestman wants in this upcoming draft.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 14, 51, 82.

Chicago begins this draft with seven picks, including a pair of 6^th round choices.  They do not have a 7^th round selection. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: DL Donald makes a ton of sense.  Will he still be available?  What is the back-up plan?

REST OF THE DRAFT: More of the immediate needs are clearly on defense, but for the long haul Chicago must think about adding several skilled players to the offense as well as rebuild a slightly depleted special team unit.  Getting Donald and a CB or a safety such as WSU’s Buchanon with the 1^st two picks would be ideal.  I only list two bolded needs, so my personal plan would be to make certain these needs are filled.  It should be noted that while I have a short list of critical needs, the overall list is 10 deep!   The key for GM Emory is to make certain rated players are chosen in this extremely deep and talented draft.

- Pittsburgh Steelers:    

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Pittsburgh has never been a big player in free agency but this year they made more moves than usual.  The offense loses rotational RB Dwyer, complimentary WR’s Sanders and Cotchery and injured OT Brown.  RB Blount is a nice fit in this power offense.  WR Lance Moore might help, along with four longshot WR’s, including former 1^st round Raider WR Heyward-Bey as well as Jasper Collins.  The defense loses DL Ziggy Hood and Al Woods, LB’s Lamar Woodley and Larry Foote, overdrafted CB Curtis Brown and longtime safety Ryan Clark.  DT Cam Thomas adds DL depth.  Average LB Moats and average safety Mike Mitchell signed on.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: DL, 2 OL, CB, young safety, Speed at RB, LB. better back-up TE, return specialist to replace WR Brown.  Cam Thomas might work out at NT, but Pittsburgh needs a contingency plan along with another DL starter.  Is undersized Beachum the answer at LT?  Does Mike Adams slide over to OG where Foster and Gilbert are barely hanging on?  Cortez Allen has limitations at CB and Ike Taylor may be slowing down.  Pittsburgh drafted the undersized Thomas at safety but may need more young talent with Polamalu getting up in years and Clark on his way out.  They don’t like to do it, but it’s time to add diversity to the run game by drafting a RB with timed speed and cutback ability.  How good is starting ILB Vince Williams?  Another TE and someone to return kicks so that Antonio Brown can stay fresh are late needs.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Mike Tomlin has considerable input but ultimately the final decision-maker is GM Colbert.  Colbert usually targets the right areas of need, but just as often does so with players lower rated on my board.  This has had an effect on team depth and impact.  In ’12 the injury bug hit their draft choices hard, but so did the police blotter.  Injuries also slowed down the growth of their 2^nd round selection (RB Bell) as well as their 3^rd round selection (WR Wheaton) in the ’13 draft, but the reality was that not one of their final five draft picks from last year did anything, and three were unrated (grade of NR) on my board!  Mike Tomlin generally prefers players who have a “four year body of work”.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 15, 46, 97.

Pittsburgh has nine draft choices.  They traded their 3^rd round pick a year ago to move up for safety Thomas but picked up a compensatory pick at the end of the 3^rd round, along with compensatory picks at the end of the 5^th and 6^th rounds.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The DL got old.  Perhaps signing Cam Thomas is not enough.  Pittsburgh will look this way but also will be in a fairly good position to catch a draft dropper at CB, safety or OL.  This should be a good choice.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Here’s the thing!  Draft rated players this year!  The last five players rated NR (’12 and ’13 drafts) are either gone or had no playing time!  I would consider double-dipping at DL, OL and DB.  With nine draft choices the Steelers can still fill their entire need board if they get this right.  Getting the board wrong could mean missing the playoffs a 3^rd straight time. 

- Dallas Cowboys:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Dallas added DL Melton, McClain and Mincey but lost DL Hatcher and Ware making this a net loss.  As expected Dallas released WR Austin.  Beleaguered QB Weeden is here. Past his prime Defensive Coordinator Lane Kiffin was demoted.  Rod Marinelli was promoted.  A splash hire would have been better.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: DL, 1 impact DB and 2-3 new DB’s overall, WR, OG, OLB, back-up/depth at OT.  Does Dallas have any reliable starter along the DL?  The newly signed Melton could help but the DL still might need a spark not only rushing the passer but also defending the run.  Part of the problem is coaching but the DB’s lack impact.  Dez Bryant is in a contract year, Terrance Williams is young and Cole Beasley has a #3 WR ceiling.  Dallas is improving along the OL but OG’s Leary and Bernadeau are average at best.  When healthy, Sean Lee is a star.  His LB mates run hot and cold and the bench players are poor.  There is also no OT talent behind LT Smith and the erratic Doug Free. 

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Jerry said he would have “fired himself” as GM based on his track record but instead he probably gave himself a raise.  The Cowboys have traded their 1^st round pick somewhere between 16-20 times over his tenure.  Nothing would surprise us.  Dallas has made draft day trades in 23 of their 25 drafts under Jerry. He once drafted 12 players (trading out of the 1^st round), and all 12 picks were panned by me!  That draft had no impact.  I called the ’12 draft uninspiring after the pick of CB Claiborne and it remains as such.  The ’13 draft yielded OC Frederick, WR Williams and raw, but decent safety Wilcox, yet Dallas could have made a better 1^st round pick and still got Frederick in the 2^nd instead of drafting a TE (Escobar) at a position without a need.  Such is life in Jerry’s world.  It is likely that more trades and probably more headscratching decisions will be on the horizon again in this draft.  That is precisely why covering the draft is so much fun!

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 16, 47, 78.

Dallas has picks in rounds 1-5, no pick in the 6^th round and a whopping five picks in the final round.  Three of those late picks are compensatory.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: This team will look to replace DE/LB Ware.  They might need to trade up to get DL Donald.  They are also interested in LB Shazier.  It appears they like OT/OG Zack Martin as well.  So far there has been very little CB talk.

REST OF THE DRAFT: To their credit, Dallad drafted six rated players last year.  Can they do the same while hitting all their need areas?  DB, DL, OG and WR.  These are my target areas.  Jerry will likely trade up and down during the draft.  This should be fun to watch. 

- Baltimore Ravens:       

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Baltimore signed solid WR Steve Smith.  Baltimore lost OT Oher, FB Leach, DE Arthur Jones, LB McClain and CB Corey Graham.  All of these guys are decent but not elite players.  TE Owen Daniels could be a nice signing.  Gary Kubiak is the new Offensive Coordinator and this is a good role for him. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 1-2 OL, 1-2 DB’s, LB, WR, DL depth, shifty RB.  Baltimore needs to replace RT Oher and find a quality interior starter.  Jimmy Smith is the 2^nd best DB, ahead of Lardarius Webb and James Ihedigbo.  More is needed to make this unit complete.  Baltimore is not necessarily hurting at LB but someone can be added to the mix.  Even with Steve Smith, a solidly rated WR can easily upgrade this unit and make it more dangerous.  DL youth is strongly recommended.  A RB with some speed might help diversify things in a backfield which underachieved in ’13.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: No introductions are necessary.  Ozzie Newsome has been mostly brilliant, although recent grades have tapered off a bit.  Past history tells us that Ozzie trades down more than up, but only a few spots at most.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 17, 48, 79, 99.

Baltimore has eight picks in round 1-6.  They lost picks in rounds 4-5 for OT Monroe but picked up compensatory picks 99, 134 and 138. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The Ravens lost RT Oher and could look here or CB.  Some say they may look at WR, but with such a deep group, along with the signing of Steve Smith,  the first look should be OT or DB.  They often trade back a bit in the 1^st round but if the right fit is there the recommendation is to just stay put and take him.  They might have a choice between Zach Martin or Calvin Pryor.  I think Baltimore might trade back in the 1^st round but in the end they will draft either an OL or a DB.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Let’s not forget about RB given ’13 troubles on the field and recent troubles for Ray Rice OFF the field.  It would not be unreasonable to move RB up on my need board.  I expect the Ravens to address all the areas after OL and DB.  The bigger question will be how many OL and DB’s do they draft, and how highly ranked will they be. 

- New York Jets:  

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Last year the roster was purged, especially defensively.  The losses this year include WR Holmes, OT Howard and CB Cromartie.  Eric Decker more than makes up for Holmes.  Jacoby Ford adds WR depth and could fill the return specialist role.  OL needs remain.  The Jets added four DB’s.  Many of these players (Dowling, Patrick, Hardin) once showed promise but injuries have caused them to miss way too much time.  Mike Vick is in, and Mark Sanchez is out. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: WR, TE, RT and RG, severe back-up depth at LB, DL depth, CB (?), KR specialist.  Adding Eric Decker and Jacoby Ford is just a start.  Another big time target would help QB Smith’s development.  RB Chris Johnson was cut by Tennessee.  When motivated, Johnson is still a #1 RB who does not need to be in a rotation.  TE Cumberland was just resigned but so far has not emerged.  Winslow is facing suspension.  This team needs a more relevant TE.  RG Colon is serviceable but replaceable and off a major injury.  RT Howard is gone.  The four starting LB’s are good but the reserves are not even close.  Two-thirds of the DL can really play.  The other options narrow down to unknown Harrison and not yet emerging Ellis.  The Jets have added quantity at CB but is there a true starter in the bunch?  Do the Jets have a true KR?

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: The Jets had been known to turn eight picks into five, routinely trading away multiple selections every year.  That changed in ’12, the year before current GM John Idzik arrived.  The Jets had a pair of 1^st round picks last year thanks to the Revis trade and picked up CB Milliner and DT Richardson with these picks.  The only real trade during the ’13 draft was obtaining RB Ivory for their 4^th round pick.  Many people thought Rex Ryan was a lame duck coach a year ago.  He’s back, and will have at least a partial voice on what positions to target in this draft.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 18, 49, 80.

The “old” Jets averaged less than five selections per draft over a five year period!  This year they will begin the draft with 12 selections, tied for the most with the Rams.  Picks 137, 209, 210 and 213 are compensatory, based on all the free agent losses they absorbed a year ago.  Pick #104 is from Tampa as final payment for Darelle Revis.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: WR tops my need board and the early buzz is that it’s #1 on the Jet list as well.  A wide variety of WR’s have been suggested.  WR Lee from USC might be my best fit for this team.  The Jets have reportedly shown interest in some of the top CB’s as well as safety Pryor.  How the draft shakes out will determine who is left at DB when the Jets are on the clock.  TE is a need but this team has plenty of current skilled position players who drop passes.  Ebron is a potential impact TE due to his athleticism but he drops too many passes to be a great fit with this team.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Expectations are that they will address WR and OL needs.  I may not love Ebron to the Jets but will they recognize the need for a solid TE?  Unless they opt for immediate impact at CB, the early round picks would be best utilized for their offense.

- Miami Dolphins:                                         

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Miami’s main additions should help.  They’ve added RB Moreno, LT Albert, DT Mitchell, CB Finnegan and safety Delmas.  They lose OL Jerry and OT Martin, More notable losses include DT Solari and safety Clemons.  Bill Lazor is the new Offensive Coordinator.  Dennis Hickey (Tampa) is the new GM.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2-3 OL, WR, severe LB depth, DL depth, extra TE, extra safety, better return specialist.  The OL is a mess.  Like the Bears of ’13 this needs a total overhaul other than OC Pouncey who himself may face a suspension.  There are just three decent WR’s on the roster (Wallace, Hartline and Matthews).  Much more is needed.  The starting LB’s are fine but there is no talent on the bench.  The DL could use another rotational body.  Unless Keller is 100% TE depth is a need.  How healthy is recent free agent signee Delmas?  This unit is hardly deep.  Thigpen is an average returner.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: In ’12 GM Jeff Ireland was quoted as saying “If our board was right, then we killed it”.  They didn’t “kill it”, and in ’13 not only did they break the bank in free agency, they also overtraded to move up for LB Jordan and as I said last year, mishandled their #1 need (OL) and made no attempt to draft any WR’s.  Ireland is gone.  Early expectations are that the Dolphins will be less aggressive on draft day.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 19, 50, 81.

Miami has their full contingent of seven picks. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: OL should be the key early need, but they will be tempted to take one of the top tier WR’s as well. 

REST OF THE DRAFT: Miami needs multiple OL, and that is not debatable.  They can do this, plus get a highly rated WR and a couple of LB’s, since the WR class is loaded and LB’s typically slip on draft day. 

- Arizona Cardinals:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Rashard Mendenhall retired and Jonathan Dwyer takes his place in the RB rotation.  Is that enough?  Veteran John Carlson replaces Jim Dray at TE.  WR Roberts left.  Ted Ginn had a surprisingly productive year in Carolina but really is at best a #3 option.  OT Veldheer is a great addition and will start.  LB Dansby was solid but got a great offer and left.  Antonio Cromartie might make a good secondary even better. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 1-2 OL, good young QB from this draft, DE and DL depth, #3 WR, OLB.  The OL remains incomplete and must open bigger run holes.  QB Palmer is on the downside of his career and a succession plan needs to be drawn up.  A mid-round pick such as Georgia’s Murray or someone else has to be added.  DE’s Dockett and Campbell are playing well but depth is awfully thin.  WR’s are plentiful in this draft.  The ILB’s are set but there is room to upgrade at OLB.  The DB’s as a whole performed admirably but the individual talent level could use an upgrade.  NT Ta’Amu is unlikely to be ready to start ’14 (torn ACL).  Adding DL depth seems like a good idea.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Arizona’s history has been to stay where they are, drafting when they are on the clock.  They are generally conservative on draft day, although with pick #69 they took a chance on CB Mathieu, which paid dividends in his initial NFL season.  They also astutely traded back a bit and still got solidly rated LB Minter.  Past drafts have been a bit above average but usually drop off after the early rounds.  It was expected that Bruce Arians would have only a minimal say in his initial year in the desert.  He may be more involved in ’14.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 20, 52, 84.

Arizona has six picks.  Their 7^th round pick was traded to Oakland for QB Carson Palmer.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Arizona can’t forget about their OL, which may have only reduced sacks due to having an accomplished QB under center instead of the parade of low level QB’s from the ’12 roster.  The run game has never rushed for a strong average and the lack of quality OL is a big reason why.  I have not seen Arizona connected to OL in the 1^st round.  What I have seen is Derek Carr, which would be a HUGE mistake.  Carr will be sack prone in the NFL and Arizona’s history is more of not protecting their QB’s.  Drafting Bortles or Bridgewater here would be fine.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Arizona has been quietly of drafting OL too late in most of their drafts.  A quality DE could take precedence in round one and if that is the case then OL must be taken soon thereafter.  Later needs are important, including getting a QB to groom to take over for Carson Palmer sooner rather than later.  The QB I might target is Aaron Murray, who will be available (at least for now) at Pick #52.  Reagrdless, the Cardinals must exit this draft with OL impact, a highly rated DE, a QB to groom and a #3 WR. 

Green Bay Packers:              

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): This area is usually blank, but Green Bay signed DE Julius Peppers and he will likely feel revitalized (i.e. motivated) in ’14.  LB’s Guion and Chase Thomas add depth.  The losses include serviceable WR James Jones, occasionally productive OG Newhouse, OC Dietrich-Smith and safety M.D. Jennings.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Safety (preferably a “cover” safety) and DB depth, TE, #3 and #4 WR, 1-2 pass blocking OL, LB, late round QB.  The Packers need to stiffen up their pass D% and add some meaningful depth to this critical area.  Green Bay used to have multiple TE’s.  They are likely to move on from injured Jermichael Finley, which leaves them just the erratic Andrew Quarless.  The Packers completely whiffed on their ’13 WR draft selections.  It would seem impossible to do the same in this deep WR draft.  Most of the elite QB’s other than Big Ben in Pittsburgh are ones who are well protected.  Rodgers seems like the exception.  Clay Matthews is an upper tier LB but the rest of the group could use an upgrade, even with the steady Hawk and the hopefully someday healthy Nick Perry.  It’s time for the Packers to revisit their one time technique of drafting a QB late in the draft.  

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Ted Thompson has improved over time.  In my eyes he made mistakes in the early years by trading down too often and by ignoring some glaring needs.  While his latest drafts still have some holes, finally addressing the return game with Cobb and trading UP for talent (instead of drafting 10+ bodies for a team with less than 10 available roster spots) has made things much better.  Still, they needlessly traded down from pick #55, risking losing draft falling RB Eddie Lacy.  This type of behavior has to stop!  The feeling remains that they will trade down rather than trade up again in this draft.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 21, 53, 85, 98.

The Packers have their own seven picks plus a pair of compensatory picks at the end of the 3^rd (98) and 5^th (176) rounds.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Green Bay had many a defensive injury but that can’t be an excuse for the many points and big plays they seem to allow late in almost every season.  If TE Ebron is available this is the pick I expect at #21.  If not, I expect a DL or a DB, and the need board cries out for this pick to be a DB.  I’ve seen LB mentioned often, but that is not as high on my draft need board.  The Packers whiffed at WR last year and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them trade down and pick one up.  Once again I will state the this team does NOT need to be trading down.  They are not rebuilding.  My top choices would be Pryor or Ebron.

REST OF THE DRAFT: There is no question that GB will a) draft an early TE, b) draft at least one WR, and c) draft a QB, especially after the lessons they learned last year when Aaron Rodgers was hurt.  I think they need to address safety first (pun intended), while not forgetting about fixing and improving their pass protection.  Will Green Bay get too “cute” on draft day?

- Philadelphia Eagles:                                   

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Philly traded for RB Sproles which will further diversify their offense.  WR Avant left, along with DeSean Jackson.  He will be missed on the field but not in the locker room.  FS Jenkins helps to fill a huge void.  Chip Kelly added talent to his special team unit.  Mike Vick is now a Jet.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Safety, CB impact, WR, DL depth, with one future starter, extra (cover) LB, young OL.  Nate Allen and Earl Wolff could be factors but if Philly could land Louisville’s Pryor it would be ideal.  Bradley Fletcher and Cary Williams are the CB’s.  More help is needed.  Philly is suddenly thin at WR with just the injured Maclin and one year’s worth of production from Riley Cooper.  At least one highly rated WR must be selected.  Philly lines up in a 3-4 but the DL has no rotational depth and will wear down without adding more bodies up front.  There’s talent in this extremely instinctive LB group but the unit’s flaw is pass coverage.  Chip Kelly is going to want to add more quickness to the current OL.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: No one quite knew how Chip Kelly would operate in his first NFL draft.  GM Howie Roseman was the decision-maker, but I surmised Kelly would be giving him schematic input.  That rang true, as the Eagles went for athleticism and quick thinkers to fit what Chip wanted to do.  Andy Reid was more of a trader on draft day but Kelly was not ready for this aspect of life in the NFL.  He may become a bit more vocal in that reagrd this time around.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 22, 54, 86.

Philly has six picks.  They are without a pick in the 6^th round.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The trade of WR Jackson clouds the issue a bit.  Before that the best fit was safety Calvin Pryor.  Now a WR such as Brandin Cooks or Odell Beckham might be targets.  Kelly is very familiar with former OSU Beaver Cooks.

REST OF THE DRAFT: If the partnership works, and IF Roseman and Kelly are patient then they could trade BACK a bit, acquiring more picks.  That might work as what Kelly looks for should differ a bit from what other teams will covet.  Sticking with the west coast theme, if Philly goes WR early the next target could be WSU safety Buchanon, who actually had three career interceptions against Oregon.  For me at least, Philly’s need board was among the easiest to put together.  I’m anxious to see how Roseman and Kelly handle their second draft together.

- Kansas City Chiefs:              

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): The losses outweigh the gains.  WR/punt return specialist McCluster is gone, along with LT Albert and OG’s Schwartz and Asamoah on offense.  The defense loses DE Tyson Jackson, along with a huge chunk of depth.  OL Linkenbach, DT Vance Walker, LB Joe Mays and safety Jerron McMillon were added. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: #1 WR and WR depth, starting LT and OL depth, run stoppers along the front seven, DE, Safety and CB depth, RB, LB, better blocking FB.  Dwayne Bowe is no longer a true #1 WR.  There’s nothing much at all behind him.  There’s filler-type depth along the OL but KC may not have a guaranteed OT ready to replace Albert.  Injuries hurt KC, especially at LB but even when healthy they were not perfect defending the run.  KC needs a free safety opposite Eric Berry and has a serviceable starter in CB Sean Smith but at the very least he should face some competition for his job.  Jamaal Charles is not a huge guy and his back-up, Knile Davis may not be healthy enough to start the season.  FB Sherman might be good enough, but KC might consider adding competition here as well.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: It was a new regime in ’13 with GM Dorsey coming from Green Bay and HC Reid from Philly.  I honestly wasn’t sure if their styles would mesh, as Dorsey came from an organization that seldom made splash draft day trades, while Reid was an active trader.  Like in ’13, KC lacks a 2^nd round pick.  Will there be some deals in the ’14 draft? 

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 23, 87.

KC has a total of six picks.  In a “win-win” scenario, pick 56 is now with SF as final payment for QB Alex Smith.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: KC may have some competition for WR now that Philly is in the market. The early pick must be used for either OT or WR.  Perhaps a SMALL trade down can allow them to recoup a draft pick but KC must be cognizant that these two areas need to be filled with high rated talent.  The run on WR’s may be in full swing at this time.

REST OF THE DRAFT: KC’s ’13 draft was only rated decently thanks to the trade for Alex Smith, which counted in my draft grade since the trade involved draft picks.  OT Fisher might be fine, but is there anything else KC accomplished with the picks they made last year?  I’ve documented reasons (in a different report) why this season may be tougher.  Dorsey and Reid need to improve on the overall quality selected for the entire body of work in this draft as otherwise these Chiefs could take a step back in ’14.  This won’t be easy considering that they are without a pick in the 2^nd round.  Do they ignore current draft projections and take a highly rated LT early, knowing that the 3^rd round will be too late?  Perhaps they get lucky and WR Allen Robinson is still on the draft board at #77.  If not, I’d take a run stopper 1^st, then draft two rated WR’s later on since this is a fantastic WR crop.

- Cincinnati Bengals:                                                      

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Cincy is not a big free agency spender.  OG Newhouse might be a nice addition.  LB Dontay Moch adds speed and CB Manning depth.  QB Campbell admits to being intimidated in the pocket.  He’s now a Bengal.  Losses include starting OT Collins and OC Kyle Cook, good DE Michael Johnson, over the hill LB James Harrison, and CB Brandon Ghee.  Hue Jackson once took one of the worst all time offenses in Oakland to top five status in one year.  He replaces Jay Gruden as Offensive Coordinator.  Former LB coach Paul Guenther has big shoes to fill, taking over for star Defensive Coordinator Mike Zimmer. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: OL, LB, speedy WR to run the slot plays, youth at DB, back-up QB.  This is a short list.  OL is the clear #1 need.  LB Burfict has been quite a find but overall the unit needs at least one upgrade.  This team has capable WR’s but might be missing the spark-plug guy that can turn a short slant into a big play.  The DB’s are still able to get the job done but now seems like a good time to start a youth movement.  There is no back-up to Dalton at QB.  

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Until ’13 I had been “lucky” enough to know exactly who the Bengals were targeting on draft day.  Last year the Bengals threw a pair of early curveballs in TE Eifert and RB Bernard, both of whom had nice rookie seasons.  GM Brown runs the draft but HC Marvin Lewis has plenty of input.  Even with the ’13 overall draft being not quite as strong as in the previous few seasons, Cincy has been among the very top drafting organizations in recent years.  Once with the NFL’s smallest scouting staff, the frugal Bengals actually are quite up to date in this area.  Cincy seldom trades on draft day. 

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 24, 55, 88.

Cincy has their full contingent of picks, plus compensatory picks at the end of the 6^th and 7^th rounds.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The first draft of the Cincinnati preview was written in late March.  Then, as now, OL makes the most sense as OT Collins was a starter.  So was DE Johnson, and that could be a look as well.  A 3^rd look would be CB.  For now, the thinking is that Cincy will stay at pick #24 and draft for defense, with DL, CB and even LB a possibility.  I’m starting to lean CB as the “preferred” first choice by the Bengals, but that could easily change if the draft falls a certain way.

REST OF THE DRAFT: It was rare to see Cincy draft a pair of * (also-eligible ratings on my draft sacle) players as well as two players with the dreaded NR (not good enough to be rated) designation.  Only two needs are bolded up above, meaning their recent drafts have already produced solid depth.  I expect that by draft’s end the Bengals will have fully addressed my board.

- San Diego Chargers:                      

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Things have been quiet.  QB Clemons has to be better than the departed Whitehurst.  Donald Brown is a solid rotational RB, clearly necessary in case Matthews gets hurt.  David Johnson is the new #3 TE.  SD loses DT Cam Thomas.  Minor changes were made at DB.  Frank Reich is the new Offensive Coordinator. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2 CB’s, 2 OL, True #2 WR, DT, young safety, young QB, LB depth.   The CB’s are Richard Marshall and Shareece Wright.  There is depth, but this unit needs immediate attention!  The OL vastly overachieved in ’13 (or maybe Norv Turner was the problem) and could still use a highly rated draftee and another player to develop.  Vincent Brown is reliable but a better and faster WR is needed on this roster to assist young WR Allen.  SD is solid at DE but needs to support young DT Geathers in the middle.  The starting safeties are fine but another body could be added.  It’s time to draft a potential down the road starter at QB.  SD has an emerging LB group but the back-ups have not been reliable when pressed into action.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Tom Telesco took over for volatile GM A.J. Smith last year and the early part of his initial draft was quite good.  The trade for Te’o did cost them a 4^th round pick, meaning SD did not draft after pick #76 until pick #145.  The final trio of picks were not as good.  This team has holes, and the one takeaway from last year is that the entire draft for ’14 must be a bit better.  2^nd year HC Mike McCoy may have more of a say in the draft room this May, with VP John Spanos occasionally contributing.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 25, 57, 89.

San Diego has their full contingent of seven picks. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Pass D was a major issue in ’13, but the OL has holes as well.  While DT could also be in their early round plans, drafting at CB or OL should be their 1^st round focus.  I estimate 2 OL and 1-2 CB’s with 1^st round grades will be available when it is their turn to pick.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Stay true to the above needs.  Is there any way this draft has seven selections from the bolded areas above?  LB Kyle Van Noy reminds me of Eric Weddle the way he freelances and makes plays around the field.  Could this be a good fit at #57 even though LB is a lower need on my draft board?  A better and more focused order of selection would be CB, OL, draft dropping DT, CB, #2 WR, young safety, and another OL.  Do it right and the Chargers can move past KC in ’14.  For the record, SD is looking at lower level LB’s such as Montana ILB Coyle and Ilinois State OLB Colton Underwood as late round possibilities.  My last minute Intel article will address other late round possibilities for many of the teams.

- New Orleans Saints:          

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): The big news was getting a quality safety in Jarius Byrd.  Paired with Kenny Vaccaro this unit looks great.  Losing RB/return specialist Sproles, WR Moore, DL Coleman and Will Smith and safeties Jenkins and Harper makes this free agency period a net loss.  Adding CB Champ Bailey might work out, but how much does he have left in the tank? 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Run stoppers along the front seven on D, OC and OL depth, CB, extra pass rusher, WR.  Perhaps 2^nd year DT Jenkins can be the big body they need in the middle but even so there needs to be some upgrades along the DL and LB group.  Drew Brees was sacked a career high 37 times.  LT Armstead will learn on the job but help is needed to make sure there are no other setbacks.  The CB unit is thin and starting CB Robinson was hurt at the end of last year.  This unit needs another star.  Recently signed Champ Bailey may or may not work out.  The defense needs to add another sack artist with Will Smith gone and the LB’s not providing much help.  It wouldn’t hurt to add an extra body to the mix at WR.  There is some depth behind one of my favorite all-time draftees, Marques Colston, but is there a solid 2^nd option? 

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: As I said last year, the ’12 draft was uninspiring and mostly a wasted opportunity.  The focus and the desire were not there, and it showed on draft day.  The return of HC Sean Payton changed that in ’13.  The Saints had just five picks, but the first four were all solid.  Payton and GM Loomis share responsibility and get some additional input from Director of College Scouting Rick Reiprish. 

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 27, 58, 91.

New Orleans has seven picks, but instead of a 7^th round choice they have an extra 5^th round choice (trade of RB Sproles).

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: So far, where they go is up for grabs.  If they follow Mel Kiper’s lead and draft Cody Latimer at pick #27 it would be a colossal reach.  Not only is WR a lower need, but Mel Kiper and others are inflating Latimer’s worth.  Any highly rated player in one of my top three areas of need would be the best course of action to take.

REST OF THE DRAFT: The Saints have selected a total of ten players over the past two drafts, and an amazingly low 32 players over their past six drafts!  This draft needs to have more bodies.  Can they turn seven picks into nine?  If not, can they at least keep their full contingent of picks?  I know they will be focused on adding OL.  This statement is true: Every team in the NFC will have a chance to make the playoffs in ’14, and as many as 11 teams have a chance to make a deep run in the playoffs.  That is how competitive the NFC is.  New Orleans can’t afford to draft just five players. 

- Carolina Panthers:                                                             

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Every Carolina Panther who caught a pass in ’13 is gone!  Stud LT Jordan Gross retired, joined by OG Hangartner.  A pair of serviceable DB’s, Captain Munnerlyn and Mike Mitchell also depart.  For most teams these DB’s are replaceable but here the DB talent was already rail thin.  LB D.J. Smith and rotational DB’s Menzie, Cason and Harper were the only notable additions until Carolina got busy, singing WR’s Cotchery and Avant, TE Dickson and top CFL sacker Alex Hall, who has some 4-3 experience in the NFL.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Multiple WR’s, OT and maybe 1-2 other OL, 2 starting DB’s, young LB, RB, #2 TE, new return specialist.   Carolina’s WR crops were gutted.  My recommendation on 3/20 was to sign Sidney Rice, draft OSU’s Brandon Cooks in round #1 and hope a draft dropper like Penn State’s Robinson is available for a trade up early in round three. Rice is now off the market.   LT is now a critical need.  If the Panthers lose OG Wharton then the situation gets even more critical.  The hope is that recent DB draftees Josh Thomas and Josh Thomas, along with undrafted, but rated safety Robert Lester become solid players.  The reality is Carolina has major issues in the secondary!  LB Kuechly is amazing, and Thomas Davis is a medical miracle, but youth needs to be added as Davis can’t be completely counted upon to stay 100% healthy.  How long can the old guys at RB hold up?  Carolina could use a more useful back-up TE.  Someone needs to replace Ginn as the primary return man.  In summary, the needs are fairly major for a team that just went 12-4!

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: I thought the setup was awkward a year ago, with new GM Dave Gettleman coming from the NYG and looking to put together a long term draft strategy, while potential lame duck HC Rivera had to win right away to have any chance at saving his job!  It was expected that Gettleman would break any and all draft choice ties.  Rivera of course remains.  Gettleman will still have the biggest draft say so.  Last year the Panthers started and ended with five picks.  Gettleman needs to draft for depth, especially considering all the free agency losses this team has had.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 28, 60, 92.

Carolina has their full contingent of seven picks. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: It would be more than a minor shock if this 1^st pick was not for a WR.  On the other hand, most of the buzz out there has been for drafting OT Moses, and some have talked about a CB.  Admittingly, all three are crucial needs.  Best fits at WR early are WR Cooks and WR Lee if he drops this far. 

REST OF THE DRAFT: Carolina is proud of their great point defense and rightfully so but in today’s NFL a bend but not break pass D is NOT usually indicative of playoff entrance or playoff success.  Let’s hope the Panthers understand how important it is to address the back end of their defense.  If they do not go WR in the 1^st round, best fits at #60 would be WR Matthews or WR Landry.  How true will Carolina be to my draft board?

- New England Patriots:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Ex-Panther WR LaFell is a steady target that could thrive here.  CB Talib left, but New England recovered quickly to sign Revis, and later added good CB Browner, who first must serve out his suspension.  Patrick Chung returns, replacing safety Adrien Wilson on the roster.  RB Blount left.  LB Spikes will be missed as a run defender.  Safety Gregory played up in the box as well and leaves a void.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: TE, safety, severe LB depth, DL, speed at WR, RB depth, 1 young OL.  NE had success when they double-dipped early in a previous draft at TE and needs to grab one to go with oft-injured Gronkowski this year.  Drafting lower rated safeties has not worked when the Pats face crunch time.  They need someone with cover skill.  There’s an enormous void at LB behind the three projected starters.  The DL has some age.  After failing to add true impact at WR in the ’13 draft the Pats must try again.  RB Ridley is too fumble prone.  The Pats need to add another RB.  Adding a future starter along the OL should be strongly considered.  

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: Nick Caserio is the Director of Player Development, but basically he’s the guy who funnels information to HC Belichick.  Belichick checks a vast number of sources OUTSIDE the organization in the 72 hours leading up to the draft.  He is a) a stickler for detail, and b) looking for that diamond in the rough.  Prior to ‘12 he was also known for leaving impact players on the table unnecessarily just to stockpile picks in later drafts.  When NE does draft early they typically get good talent, as evidenced most recently by that ’12 draft (Chandler Jones and Donte Hightower in the 1^st round).  Unfortunately, Belichick traded WAY BACK last year, making his first choice only at pick #52.  As for Bill’s “hidden gems”, these picks have not been good at all.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 29, 62, 93.

New England has eight picks, including five of the 1^st 140.  Pick # 140 is compensatory.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Safety is probably out even though Patrick Chung has had a rough go of it lately.  DL could be the look, with TE a major look, either for Ebron or Sefarian-Jenkins.  I set the odds at 15% for a trade UP, 15% for staying put, and 70% for moving OUT of the 1^st round, perhaps trading with a QB needy team.  TE Seferian-Jenkins or versatile safety Ward are logical targets if they trade out, with DL, or a higher rated safety possible trade up targets.

 

REST OF THE DRAFT: How about fewer round three and below mistakes!  NE has made numerous day two-three mistakes and is starting to show more cracks in the overall lineup so this draft needs to be more focused.  WR and RB needs are real. 

- San Francisco 49ers:           

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Blaine Gabbert was rushed into action as a rookie with the Jags.  The trade to get him is a no-risk proposition.  The same is true for Jonathan Martin, who adds OL depth but still must get more physical.  WR Lloyd was out of the NFL by choice in ’13.  He has a shot at the #2 spot if the year off is not a detriment.  SF lost CB’s Carlos Rogers and Tarell Brown and safety Donte Whitner.  CB Chris Cook is a decent acquisition even if he is not a true #1 CB.  Safety Bethea is at least equal to Whitner but a very different player. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: CB, ILB and LB depth, edge rusher, OC and back-up OL depth, extra WR, possibly a true NT.  The CB’s are Rogers, Tramaine Brock and Eric Wright.  More is needed.  ILB Bowman was seriously hurt in the NFC title game and might not be ready for much of ’14.  That’s a big loss on a team with little in reserve at LB.  The Aldon Smith saga is getting ugly.  Perhaps SF gets his replacement sooner rather than later.  The 49er OL is top five, but OC Goodwin is getting older (35) and the back-ups could use an upgrade as it could be a problem if there were injuries.  Quinton Patton could be the answer if given a chance but in this deep WR class it might not hurt to draft another hot prospect.  SF is a stout run D team even without a true NT big body.  Maybe someday they’ll draft one.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: It’s hard to know who’s calling the shots in SF.  GM Baalke, HC Harbaugh, Director of Player Personnel Gamble and COO Maranthe all have some sort of role.  However it shakes out, SF has done some really great things (Kaepernick, Aldon Smith on the field, Eric Reid) and some really awful things (numerous reaches such as Jenkins at pick 30 in ‘12, and a plethora of unrated draft picks, including their final five picks in the ’13 draft).  Jenkins was clearly over-drafted and then traded to KC in mid-season!  SF does one thing extremely well and that is work the trade board.  This is a deep draft and SF is ready with six of the top 100 picks!  Will they keep these picks?  Will they draft wisely?

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 30, 56, 61, 77, 94, 100.

SF loves to stockpile picks.  They have six of the top 100 picks, the most of any team.  Pick 100 is compensatory.  SF has a trio of 7^th round picks as part of their 11 overall.  They have no pick in the 6^th round, trading that choice for QB Gabbert.  Pick 56 was from KC for QB Alex Smith.  Pick 77 is from Tennessee.  SF drafted medical “redshirts” in DL Tank Carradine and RB Marcus Lattimore last year, something they could do thanks to a loaded roster and extra picks.  That’s like have 13 picks in this draft!

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: First off, there is NO NEED to trade out of this round.  Take a CB, or trade UP for a CB.  You have the ammo.  If the pick is not for a CB then a sooner rather than later replacement for troubled DL Alden Smith could be the focus.

REST OF THE DRAFT: At what point does SF look at a true NT?  Do they realize stud LB Bowman is very likely to start ’14 on the PUP list?  The needs are not that many and clearly all can be met given that SF has so many 1^st and 2^nd day selections.  SF will likely look RB, maybe with one of those six early picks with Frank Gore in the last year of his contract.  I expect decent focus by SF in this draft, but unfortunately, also expect a healthy amount of NR (not good enough to be rated) players selected.  Let’s hope I am wrong, considering that this draft not only has quality, but contains about 60 more rated players than the ’13 edition.

- Denver Broncos:                  

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Denver cares!  WR Sanders tries to replace WR Decker and a pair of OG’s are gone.  Denver will get OT Clady back from injury and added OC Montgomery.  RB Moreno left.  DE Ware comes in.  DL Robert Ayers left, as did DE/LB Shaun Phillips, who was in Denver just one year.  Reliable LB Woodyard is gone, but Jamar Chaney has some talent.  Denver released CB Bailey and saw Rodgers-Cromartie leave but adding CB Talib and safety Ward more than makes up for the losses.  Electric but fumble prone kick returner Trindon Holiday must be replaced.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: LB, run stopper either along the DL or at LB, extra RB to replace Moreno, OG, CB, return specialists.  Trevathan and the now departed Woodyard are “try-hard” guys but not elite.  The back-ups carry only rotational value.  The defense is decent vs. the run but needs another helpful body, especially with rotational DL Ayers now gone.  Denver might be wise to add another RB to team with Montae Ball.  Denver appears to be short one OG.  Adding Talib helps but he’s a bit injury prone and the remaining CB’s are not yet proven.  Decker and Holiday are gone and they were the mainstays in the return game.  Not listed above is WR.  Caldwell was re-signed but Denver can do better as a 4^th option behind Thomas, Welker and the newly signed Sanders.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Elway has the power.  HC Fox will have some input if he is adamant about a certain player.  Until ’13, Denver had shown a recent tendency to trade down and out of the 1^st round.  That can result in talent lost.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 31, 63, 95.

Denver has their full contingent of seven picks. 

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: The late free agency losses at DL and along the OL could and should dictate where Denver goes early in this draft.  This is another team that often trades down on draft day.  The wise move would be to see who falls to them and grab the best available talent that fits one of the bolded need areas listed above.

REST OF THE DRAFT: I expect RB competition and even a rated WR to be taken, and as for WR, perhaps earlier rather than later.  The need board is not overly deep.  Denver would be wise to address front seven needs defensively.

- Seattle Seahawks:                                                                                      

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Losing WR Golden Tate is a blow to one of their thinnest units.  The DL took multiple hits, losing Red Bryant, Chris Clemons and Clinton McDonald.  CB’s Thurmond and Browner are examples of losing decently talented players who could not stay healthy and/or went on suspension and lost their job.  Pete Carroll likes to shuffle his TE’s and the newly signed Beckum is good when healthy.  While technically not a free agent signing, having WR Sidney Rice back could be a blessing.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: WR, pass blocking OL, DL, LB depth, DB depth.  Seattle needs a tall WR.  Can the recently (re)signed Sidney Rice get healthy enough to do the job?  If so, Seattle could add another WR of any size.  The OL is lucky to be blocking for the mobile and cerebral Russell Wilson.  Individually, three-fifths of the line is average at best.  Red Bryant is gone.  ’13 rookie Jesse Williams might be able to slip in but with the other DL changes more help could be needed.  Four LB’s (Wright, Wagner, Malcolm Smith and Irvin) contribute but Irvin also plays some DE and the unit as a whole is coached up more than overly talented except for Wagner.  Seattle has very little DB depth behind their amazing starting quartet.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: There’s a genuine chemistry in the draft room between GM John Schneider and HC Pete Carroll.  To say they do things their way (like SF) would be a vast understatement.  Yes, they got a gem in QB Wilson but honestly, most people panned the pick.  LB Irvin was selected at #12.  Oddsmakers (true story) set his draft value at 54.5.  I felt he would go between picks 25 and 35 so everyone wins!  Time will tell if 2^nd round draftee RB Michael was the right pick.  Seattle loves to draft in quantity which is probably a good thing since they miss on an awful lot of their draft picks.  On the other hand, a trade or two up for rated players would be welcome here.  The Seahawks have drafted a whopping 13 unrated (NR) players in just the past three seasons.  To date 11 of the 13 picks have earned their ratings!  Only converted OL Sweezy (15 OL starts, but with modest success) and ’13 draftee TE Willson (20 rookie receptions) have shown any promise.  Imagine what could have been if Seattle had drafted more rated talent!

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 32, 64.

Seattle has seven picks, but no pick in the 3^rd round (Percy Harvin) and an extra pick in the 5^th round (Matt Flynn to Oakland).

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: Seattle has some holes and could go in a number of different directions.  This is never an easy team to figure out on draft day, so let’s just hope that the pick is for a highly rated player.  The uneducated guess would be a DL or LB.

REST OF THE DRAFT: Expectations are still for a couple of draft day moves, with at least one of the moves being a trade DOWN.  Other than drafting for depth, and moving toward a whole new OL drafting philosophy the two things they MUST accomplish is getting a ready to go WR and replacing numerous DL.  Expect some surprises when Seattle is on the clock.

- Washington Redskins:     

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Washington did not initially go on their usual spending spree thanks in part to previous NFL sanctions.  That changed when they signed DeSean Jackson.  Even with cap issues Washington signed plenty of other players.  WR Roberts is talented.  OL Lauvao and Campbell are hardly all-pros, typical of the rest of this Redskin OL, which lost fringe starting OC Montgomery.  DT Jason Hatcher could help up front.  38 year old London Fletcher retired.  Three LB’s including Akeem Jordan and Darryl Sharpton come in, but this won’t be a game changer.  Tracy Porter adds CB depth, but his game was off in ’13.  Ryan Clark may have lost a step but the safety is an upgrade for this team.  Jay Gruden promoted Tight Ends coach Sean McVay to Offensive Coordinator but look for Gruden himself to have a big hand in the offense.  For some reason Jim Haslett was retained as Defensive Coordinator. 

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: 2+ OL, DL, ILB, fundamentally sound DB(s),.  Washington has forever drafted lower rated OL talent.  This unit is likely to switch to a brand new run scheme and could use several upgrades.  NT Coefield did an acceptable job.  The remaining incumbents won’t scare anyone.  London Fletcher is retiring.  There has been NO succession plan.  If Shanahan stopped stockpiling RB’s he could have addressed this area.  Impact is needed.  Washington drafted three DB’s in ’13, but all three are risk takers.  So is DeAngelo Hall.  The unit needs more discipline.  

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: The “ruler of all things”, HC Mike Shanahan is finally gone.  GM Bruce Allen will likely make most of the decisions, although owner Daniel Snyder might occasionally drop in a “suggestion”.  Jay Gruden will get some say here as a fresh face for Allen to team up with.  Recent drafts have reversed course, as Washington has added and not subtracted picks.  That’s impressive, as Washington has been without some picks as a result of the  blockbuster deal to get RG III.  This gave Washington at least a chance to add much needed team depth.  Of course some of the picks could have been better. 

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 34, 66.

Washington never thought the final payment in the trade to eventually acquire RG III would be as high as the 2^nd overall pick of the draft.  Coaching, and poor drafting was as much to blame as anything else.  Washington has all of their other picks.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: No Pick. 

REST OF THE DRAFT: The OL is so mediocre that adding multiple players must be considered.  Washington was active in free agency, but the players added here and at LB are hardly elite.  Most of the buzz is at DB.  Please make sure you protect RG III.

- Indianapolis Colts:

FREE AGENCY ANALYSIS AND STAFF NOTES (Short Version): Offensively, Donald Brown left, leaving ’12 draftees Trent Richardson and Vick Ballard at RB.  Can Trent live up to the steep cost of trading for him?  WR Nicks joins the electric T.Y. Hilton and future Hall of Famer Reggie Wayne.  Six transactions were made so far along the OL but I see no net gain or loss.  Arthur Jones adds DL depth and D’Qwell Jackson adds value at LB.  Starting safety Antoine Bethea is gone.

2014 DRAFT NEEDS: Interior OL, CB, safety, run stuffing DL, #4 WR, return specialist (?).  There is virtually no talent on Indy’s interior OL, even with the free agency additions.  Josh Gordy should not be considered for a starting CB role.  A replacement is needed for safety Bethea.  The entire secondary lacks suitable depth.  The NT lacks ideal bulk and the DE’s haven’t stopped the run at all.  Signing Arthur Jones is just a start.  WR Da’Rick Rogers has massive upside if he is a) given the chance and b) stays out of trouble.  Just to be careful, perhaps Indy adds another WR late in the draft.  The Colts need to make sure T.Y. Hilton is taken off punt return duties.

RECENT DRAFT HISTORY AND TENDENCIES FOR 2014: GM Grigson’s 1^st draft was a huge hit offensively.  Nothing was done defensively, although the coaching changes helped.  Grigson’s 2^nd draft was less impactful, especially at the top.  This will stunt growth, especially with a negative point ratio coming into ’14, coupled with a 1^st place schedule.  HC Pagano will have input into the draft process.  Usually owner Jim Irsay is quite active as well, tweeting all over the free world.  His off-field troubles seem to be piling up, so less should be expected from him this time around.

DRAFT PICK OVERVIEW: Picks in 1^st 3 rounds: 59, 90.

RB Trent Richardson had four carries for a single yard in the Colts’ two playoff games.  Indy hopes he can do better as they are without pick #26 in the trade to acquire him.  Indy has only five total picks.  Another draft day trade cost them a 4^th round pick.

ROUND ONE PREVIEW: No pick.

REST OF THE DRAFT: More talent is needed defensively and along the OL, but picking at #59 means that most of the impact DL will be gone.  Usually there are one or two decent DB’s around, and several interior OL should be available.  Any early draft mistakes could mean that this entire draft class won’t be of much help in ’14.  If I were Indy I’d get the best available DB who dropped to your spot, then move for an interior OL at pick #90.  I’d only change this philosophy for the following: If a big run-stuffing DL feel all the way to #59 I would weigh this option vs. who was left at DB.  The other option would be to trade a high pick in the ’15 draft (hopefully a 2^nd and not a 1^st) in order to add a pick somewhere between Picks 35-45.  If possible the package would include current players and not extra draft picks.  Having just five draft picks, and no picks in the top 58 of this extremely deep and talented draft puts the Colts at a severe disadvantage.  Trading for a pick in the upper half of the seond round of this draft is in my estimation the equiviliant of having a #1 draft choice in most drafts.  For example, I gave about 20 players in the ’13 draft 1^st round grades.  That means there was not enough 1^st round talent to fill last year’s draft.  This draft has about 41-43 players worthy of a 1^st round grade.  Indy (and other teams) need to understand what that means!

[grath88]

No 9ers?