Stars of Week 16
QB: Tom Brady, TB: 22-27, 348 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
RB: Alvin Kamara, NO: 22 carries, 155 yards, 6 TDs
WR: Mike Evans, TB: 11 catches, 142 yards, 3 TDs
TE: Jimmy Graham, CHI: 4 catches, 69 yards, 2 TDs
The G.O.A.T. made his way into this week’s honor roll, as he roasted the Detroit Lions to the tune of 348 passing yards and 4 TDs. Tom Brady has looked the part in his first season in Tampa Bay. While Brady’s not as strong when facing pressure as he used to be, he can sure sling it with a clean pocket – which remains a specialty of the Lions. Brady remains a low end QB1, where he’ll continue to be ranked as we enter the 2021 season.
Take a bow, Alvin Kamara! The Saints’ superstar RB did his part to carry teams to fantasy championships in Week 16 with 6 TDs! Per ESPN, Kamara’s 56.2 fantasy points marks the third highest Week 16 points total in NFL history among position players. Kamara will be in the mix for the first overall pick in next year’s drafts, as discussed below.
Davante Adams has taken over as the league’s top wide receiver, and will find himself drafted in the top half of first rounds in next year’s fantasy drafts. Adams finished with 11 receptions for 142 yards against the Titans, with three of those catches going for TDs. Adams is the league’s best route runner, and has proven himself to be uncoverable. Adams will continue to dominate for as long as Aaron Rodgers remains QB, and very possibly beyond.
Bears’ tight end Jimmy Graham has become a journeyman, now having played for four teams over his career. Just when you think he’s become irrelevant, Graham goes out and catches TD passes. While Graham sits on pace for roughly 500 receiving yards, he has scored 8 TDs in 2020. That’s in line with the player he is now – a TD dependent option. Graham has one more year left on his deal with the Bears, but he could become a cap casualty due to his high cap number. Regardless of where Graham plays, he’ll be a late round draftee at best in next year’s drafts.
Week 16 Special – Projection of First Two Rounds of 2021 FFL Draft
Each week we’ve taken a close look at noteworthy performances and sorted out what they meant for this season and beyond. With the NFL regular season nearing its conclusion, meaning fantasy seasons wrapping up, I’m continuing a tradition for my final article of the season - projecting a way too early mock draft for next season. Without further adieu, here’s a look at the first two rounds of a twelve-team league (assume 0.5 PPR).
Round 1
Team 1: Christian McCaffrey, RB - CAR
Team 2: Alvin Kamara, RB - NO
Team 3: Dalvin Cook, RB - MIN
Team 4: Derrick Henry, RB - TEN
Team 5: Davante Adams, WR - GB
Team 6: Aaron Jones, RB - GB
Team 7: Tyreek Hill, WR - KC
Team 8: Nick Chubb, RB - CLE
Team 9: Saquon Barkley, RB - NYG
Team 10: Ezekiel Elliott, RB - DAL
Team 11: Austin Ekeler, RB - LAC
Team 12: Travis Kelce, TE - KC
Comments: Unlike for 2020, reasonable opinions will differ as to the top overall pick, with Christian McCaffrey, Alvin Kamara, Dalvin Cook and Derrick Henry all in the discussion. I’ve got CMC as the top selection, but can’t fault a manager who selects any of the top four options. Perhaps the biggest decision for managers to make at the top - how to value Kamara in the event that Taysom Hill does take over the Saints’ QB duties next season, as expected. Davante Adams sits comfortably atop the WR position, with Tyreek Hill the likely second WR to come off the board. Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott (assuming a healthy return of Dak Prescott and the Cowboys’ offensive line) and Austin Ekeler make up the second tier of RBs, all of whom will likely be selected in the middle to back half of the first round. Travis Kelce will likely be selected towards the end of the first round as the top tight end available.
Round 2
Team 12: DK Metcalf, WR - SEA
Team 11:Jonathan Taylor, RB - IND
Team 10: DeAndre Hopkins, WR - ARI
Team 9: Stefon Diggs, WR - BUF
Team 8: James Robinson, RB - JAC
Team 7: Calvin Ridley, WR - ATL
Team 6: Keenan Allen, WR - LAC
Team 5: Josh Jacobs, RB - LV
Team 4: Antonio Gibson, RB- WAS
Team 3: D’Andre Swift, RB - DET
Team 2: AJ Brown, WR - TEN
Team 1: Michael Thomas, WR – NO
Comments: Seahawks’ star WR DK Metcalf starts us off in round 2, a round which will be mostly dominated by wide receivers. DeAndre Hopkins, Stefon Diggs, Calvin Ridley and Keenan Allen join Metcalf as top-to-mid second round picks, and you can order this group however you wish. As for RBs, Jonathan Taylor should be a high second round pick, with James Robinson likely to follow close by. Once the tier two wide receivers go off the board, we see another run on running backs, with Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson and D’Andre Swift getting scooped up. We end round 2 with a pair of wide receivers who arguably should be selected higher. AJ Brown has all the tools necessary to join the earlier round 2 wide receiver group. Michael Thomas has top 3 wide receiver ability, but will likely be limited by Taysom Hill, assuming he starts for the Saints. A more dedicated, elite pocket passer would shoot Thomas’ value up into the first round.
Next Four In:
1) George Kittle, TE – SF
2) Patrick Mahomes, QB – KC
3) Allen Robinson, WR – CHI
4) Miles Sanders, RB - PHI
Comments: It should surprise no one if any of the four players above find their way into the second round as well. George Kittle and Travis Kelce were viewed interchangeably from a value standpoint heading into 2020 drafts, but Kittle missing most of 2020 with injuries obviously pushes him down a bit. Patrick Mahomes will be the first quarterback selected, but it would be smart for managers not to select him prior to round 3. Allen Robinson suffers from a similar fate to that of Michael Thomas, at least as of today’s writing. With Robinson scheduled to be a free agent, an upgrade at QB will push him into the second round. Miles Sanders’ arrow points up now that Jalen Hurts has taken over the QB duties in Philadelphia, which will likely hold into 2021.
Rapid Fire Pickups
Each week we throw out potential free agent pickups from each position for deeper leagues, in each case 1) someone who has NOT been featured above, and 2) a player available in more than 50% of leagues.
QB: Philip Rivers, IND (vs JAC)
RB: Gus Edwards, BAL (@ CIN)
RB: Darrel Williams, KC (vs LAC)
WR: Sterling Shepard, NYG (vs DAL)
WR: Michael Pittman, IND (vs JAC)
TE: Irv Smith, MIN (vs DET)
Final Note:
With the NFL regular season coming to a close, this will be my last write up for the 2020 season. For those of you in championship matchups in Week 17, look for my rankings, which will be posted later this week. Thanks to all of you for yet another great year and for engaging with me on Twitter – it’s been a blast connecting with so many of you and to see you do so well in your leagues! I’ll be in touch with articles throughout the offseason. Until then, please stay safe and happy 2021!