Quarterbacks
TIER 1 | ||
Name | Team | |
1 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC |
2 | Josh Allen | BUF |
3 | Lamar Jackson | BAL |
4 | Kyler Murray | ARI |
5 | Dak Prescott | DAL |
The tier 1 quarterbacks fall into one of two categories – they are either named Patrick Mahomes, or they amass significant fantasy points via the ground game. While I generally suggest that you bypass selecting a QB early in your league, my favorite from this group based on ADP is Lamar Jackson, who’s currently the fourth QB off the board at pick 49 (per ESPN). The Ravens have made just enough improvements to Jackson’s passing weaponry that I expect him to finish much closer to Mahomes, who’s currently going 20th overall in leagues, in fantasy value than contemplated by managers in their league drafts. While not currently happening, Mahomes should be selected in the fourth round, with the rest of the group to follow into rounds 5 and 6.
That said, expect folks to continue to reach for these QBs earlier than that, and just be cautious not to overpay. We’ll dive more into QB strategy at the end of this article, but in a nutshell, there are several good QB options - so no need to shell out a high draft pick to secure the position.
TIER 2 | ||
Name | Team | |
6 | Russell Wilson | SEA |
7 | Justin Herbert | LAC |
8 | Aaron Rodgers | GB |
9 | Tom Brady | TB |
10 | Jalen Hurts | PHI |
Outside of Jalen Hurts, the tier 2 QBs rely less on the ground game than the tier 1 group, with Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady decisively less so. Hurts sits squarely on the other end of the spectrum, with the ground game comprising the bulk of his fantasy value, but otherwise not having the passing chops of the other QBs in this tier. The first three QBs on this list each have tier 1 fantasy potential, with Brady retaining a very high floor. Rounds 6 through 8 make sense for this quintet of passers.
TIER 3 | ||
Name | Team | |
11 | Joe Burrow | CIN |
12 | Ryan Tannehill | TEN |
13 | Matthew Stafford | LAR |
14 | Trevor Lawrence | JAC |
As we venture into tier 3, we find ourselves with an interesting quartet of QBs, all of whom comprise solid starting options for your fantasy team. The drop in tier reflects the group possessing a bit lower ceiling than the QBs in the two tiers above them. Burrow has the highest ceiling among the group, but he comes with risk, coming off an ACL injury while also passing behind a poor offensive line. Tannehill has arguably the best group of skill position players in the league at his disposal, and Stafford will have easy throws galore in Sean McVay’s offense, to go along with his rocket arm. Lawrence’s supporting cast is so-so, but he’s the most polished rookie QB entering the league since Andrew Luck - he’ll lift his teammates up. I strongly suggest picking a starting QB from this tier or above, as the options become too speculative as we move lower into the rankings.
TIER 4 | ||
Name | Team | |
15 | Matt Ryan | ATL |
16 | Ryan Fitzpatrick | WAS |
17 | Daniel Jones | NYG |
18 | Kirk Cousins | MIN |
19 | Justin Fields | CHI |
20 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA |
The tier 4 group provides a bit of everything – steady veterans such as Matt Ryan and Kirk Cousins, a 38 year old journeyman named Fitzmagic, young QBs with question marks in Daniel Jones and Tua Tagovailoa, and rookie wild card Justin Fields. You should not rely on anyone from this group as your primary starter going into the season, but they could be part of a weekly matchup platoon – with another QB no lower than this group. In such case, I would suggest rolling the dice on Justin Fields, the QB with the best chance to vastly outperform his ADP (currently 159). Whenever Fields makes his way into the starting lineup, and he will, he’ll at minimum wreak havoc in the ground game. See a trend? When you get into this part of the draft, be aggressive in selecting lottery tickets…and Fields fits that bill perfectly.
TIER 5 | ||
Name | Team | |
21 | Ben Roethlisberger | PIT |
22 | Baker Mayfield | CLE |
23 | Trey Lance | SF |
24 | Deshaun Watson | HOU |
25 | Carson Wentz | IND |
26 | Derek Carr | LV |
27 | Jimmy Garappolo | SF |
28 | Zach Wilson | NYJ |
Tier 5 gives us solid, steady QBs in Ben Roethlisberger (albeit he’s fading), Baker Mayfield and Derek Carr. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz has previously been a fantasy darling but needs to re-prove himself in a new setting. Deshaun Watson’s status for the 2021 season remains unknown at this point, but you should at minimum be expecting a substantial suspension to start the season. So he’s hard to rank, but we’ll leave him here for now. Trey Lance catches my fancy the most from this group, for the same reasons as Justin Fields. He falls a tier lower only because he has a larger obstacle in front of him to overcome for playing time, as Jimmy G > Andy Dalton. Zach Wilson will make noise in the future, but my expectations aren’t high for year one.
Draft Strategy:
Most leagues contain 10-12 teams, while only allowing one starting QB. As mentioned above, you’ll want to fill your starting QB position with a player within the top three tiers. So doing the math, we’ve got 14 good starting QB options, which likely averages greater than 1 per team in your league. As we go through the RB and WR positions, you’ll see that the math gets a lot tougher. As such, it’s best that you invest your draft capital heavily in those two positions as the priority. In case you crave a tier 1 starter, at least ensure that you’re not overpaying with your draft capital.
If your lead QB happens to fall outside of the top three tiers, make sure that he’s no lower than tier 4, and at least pair up that QB with a second option so that you can play weekly matchups. This scenario would also be a prime spot to stash Fields or Lance as a lottery play.
*** The exception to the wait-for-QBs rule applies for leagues that require you to start two QBs. In two QB leagues, you should aim to grab your first QB from tier 2 or better, with your second QB coming from no further down than tier 4. In such a league, it’s appropriate to draft your first QB within the first two rounds. Scarcity flips strategy, so just be mindful of the stark difference in strategy for two QB leagues.