*** Rankings below based on 0.5 PPR leagues
Tier 1
1. Davante Adams, GB
2. Tyreek Hill, KC
3. Stefon Diggs, BUF
4. Calvin Ridley, ATL
5. DeAndre Hopkins, ARI
The NFL wide receiver position likely sits at its zenith in terms of league wide talent, with the tier 1 group leading the way. With Aaron Rodgers back, Davante Adams firms up his position as the top overall WR. Some folks will beg to differ, instead preferring Tyreek Hill as WR1. That’s fine, as you can’t go wrong with either player. Stefon Diggs came much cheaper in drafts last season, but he established incredible chemistry with QB Josh Allen early on last season, and now sits third in the pecking order. With Julio Jones departed to Tennessee, Calvin Ridley firmly becomes the go-to WR for the Falcons. He’s an excellent route runner, poised for a career season. We end tier 1 with DeAndre Hopkins, who may have the surest hands in the league. This quintet of top WRs should be selected starting in the back half of round 1 of your drafts, continuing through the top half of round 2.
TIER 2
6. DK Metcalf, SEA
7. Justin Jefferson, MIN
8. Keenan Allen, LAC
9. A.J. Brown, TEN
10. Terry McLaurin, WAS
11. Allen Robinson II, CHI
There’s just a slight dropoff from tier 1 to tier 2, as several of these players have tier 1 ceilings. Seahawks WR DK Metcalf possesses a size-speed combination that’s unmatched in the NFL. He’s uncoverable, and will only improve going into his third season in the league. Justin Jefferson turned in one of the most memorable rookie seasons for a WR in recent memory last season. He has great hands and gets open with ease, which leads to a bounty of NFL counting stats. Keenan Allen is a true tactician, comfortably a top three route runner in the NFL. Allen has averaged just over 100 receptions over the past four seasons, and will make it five as long as he stays healthy. Similar to Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown has a knack for getting open on every play, and he’ll continue his ascent into the top echelon of WRs. While Julio Jones will take some targets from him, Brown will also benefit from the attention that Jones will command from defenses. Terry McLaurin has posted upper echelon stats despite having bottom 5 QB play, so he should benefit significantly from QB Ryan Fitzpatrick joining the Washington Football Team. Fitz will target McLaurin heavily, which will lead to a career season for the young WR. Perhaps no great WR has endured more seasons of trash QB play than Allen Robinson. Watch out once Justin Fields takes over the reigns at QB for the Bears, which will likely happen by midseason. Tier 2 WRs should depart draft boards starting at the bottom half of round 2, with the group completely selected by the end of round 3, if not a bit sooner.
TIER 3
12. Amari Cooper, DAL
13. Mike Evans, TB
14. Robert Woods, LAR
15. Chris Godwin, TB
16. CeeDee Lamb, DAL
17. Diontae Johnson, PIT
18. D.J. Moore, CAR
19. Julio Jones, TEN
20. Cooper Kupp, LAR
21. Adam Thielen, MIN
The tier 3 group provides strong WR2 value, populated mostly by consistent, steady options who lack either the target volume or the explosiveness to pierce through the two tiers above. Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb land here from the Cowboys, and they also have Michael Gallup to contend with as a third productive WR. Ditto for Mike Evans and Chris Godwin from the Bucs, with Antonio Brown and other pass catchers competing for volume. The Rams’ Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp will benefit from the upgrade at QB from Jared Goff to Matthew Stafford, and each should continue to catch between 90-100 balls, making them consistent, solid weekly starters. Dionte Johnson has significant upside here, but has to work on catching the ball – drops plagued him last season. DJ Moore has 4 TDs and at least 1,175 receiving yards in each of the last two seasons. We’ll see if new QB Sam Darnold, along with the departure of fellow WR Curtis Samuel, will bump up Moore’s production in the red zone. Julio Jones moving from the Falcons to the Titans pushes his value down only slightly, as he’s the clear 1A to A.J. Brown’s 1 in Tennessee. Adam Thielen has also taken a slight back seat in the pecking order, with Justin Jefferson now the Vikings’ lead WR. But nevertheless, the tier 3 group should accumulate 80-100 receptions with 6-8 TDs, making them very valuable, key players for your team. Rounds 3-4 make sense for this group. If you want to target upside, CeeDee Lamb and Dionte Johnson have the most room to bust out from tier 3.
TIER 4
22. Tyler Lockett, SEA
23. Ja\\\'Marr Chase, CIN
24. Kenny Golladay, NYG
25. Courtland Sutton, DEN
26. Tee Higgins, CIN
27. Brandon Aiyuk, SF
Tyler Lockett leads off tier 4, serving as the second half of the Seahawks’ dynamic WR duo. Lockett arguably belongs in tier 3, but he has disappeared over key, long stretches the past two years. In 2019, he topped 51 receiving yards only once from games 10 through 16, with just 2 TDs during this stretch. Moving to 2020, Lockett only exceeded 67 yards receiving once through games 7 – 15, finding the end zone only once during this time. Whether injury related or otherwise, it’s just something to keep in mind. But don’t make the mistake of dropping Lockett too far – he’s a phenomenal WR. Can Bengals’ rookie Ja’Marr Chase make a similar impact as Justin Jefferson made in 2020? While that’s too heavy of a burden for him to carry, he’s the top rookie WR for 2021 and will make a splash in year 1. Teammate Tee Higgins joins Chase in tier 4, for what should be a potent Bengals’ passing attack. The Giants signed Kenny Golladay in free agency to serve as their alpha WR. He’s got all the tools, but how quickly will he jell with QB Daniel Jones? Golladay comes with some risk in transitioning to a new team. Courtland Sutton has immense talent and easily could outperform his ranking, but the Broncos’ QB situation leaves much to be desired. Still, Sutton and not Jerry Jeudy is the top option at WR for the Broncos. Brandon Aiyuk thrived in Coach Shanahan’s offense last season as a rookie, and with an upgraded QB situation this year (either a healthy Jimmy G or prized rookie Trey Lance), Aiyuk will push towards 1,000 yards and 6-8 TDs. Rounds 5 through 7 fit for the tier 4 group.
TIER 5
28. Odell Beckham Jr., CLE
29. D.J. Chark Jr., JAC
30. JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
31. Tyler Boyd, CIN
32. Robby Anderson, CAR
33. Chase Claypool, PIT
34. Curtis Samuel, WAS
35. Deebo Samuel, SF
36. Jarvis Landry, CLE
Odell Beckham hasn’t had the level of success in Cleveland that was anticipated. He’s suffered unfortunate injuries, while also languishing in a run first offense. As such, Beckham sits in tier 5, despite possessing top tier talent. His teammate, Jarvis Landry, will likely lead the Browns in targets, but comes without Beckham’s big play ability. With Trevor Lawrence now at the helm for the Jaguars, D.J. Chark has considerable upside here. JuJu Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool should put up solid counting stats for the season, but weekly totals will be more uncertain as they battle for targets with Dionte Johnson. Tyler Boyd will also have to fight for targets, but he’ll do just fine in the slot, with the Bengals boasting perhaps their best aerial attack in the team’s history. If new Panthers QB Sam Darnold can assimilate quickly in the team’s offensive scheme, then Robby Anderson also has room to provide much better ROI than his draft spot. Despite adjustment periods that come with WRs switching teams, Curtis Samuel presents a safe play – specifically because WFT will deploy him as a rusher as well as a receiver, with special packages in place for him in the offense. Deebo Samuel sits third in priority for the 49ers’ passing game, chasing George Kittle and Brandon Aiyuk. He should still get around 80 touches, which makes him a solid WR3 / flex option. The tier 5 WRs will make solid draft selections between rounds 7 through 10 of fantasy drafts.
TIER 6
37. Brandin Cooks, HOU
38. Will Fuller V, MIA
39. Laviska Shenault Jr., JAC
40. Michael Gallup, DAL
41. DeVonta Smith, PHI
42. Jerry Jeudy, DEN
43. Corey Davis, NYJ
Perhaps no group comes with more uncertainty than tier 6. Whether Deshaun Watson will throw another pass for the Texans remains to be seen, so Brandin Cooks could be a dud or a great value here, depending on how the QB position resolves itself. Cooks’ former teammate, deep threat extraordinaire Will Fuller, joins the Dolphins as QB Tua Tagovailoa tries to find his footing as an NFL QB. His connection with Tua remains to be seen. Laviska Shenault and Michael Gallup provide considerable upside here, with Shenault a swiss army knife and Gallup as the third leg of the Cowboys’ prolific passing attack. DeVonta Smith enters the league with considerable pedigree, and should serve as the Eagles’ top WR. How successful QB Jalen Hurts will be as a passer will be the key deciding factor in the rookie’s year 1 success. Jerry Jeudy and Corey Davis each have higher ceilings than indicated in the draft board, but will be subject to middling QB play in the case of Jeudy, and novice, non-Trevor Lawrence QB play in the case of Corey Davis.
TIER 7
44. Randall Cobb, GB
45. Antonio Brown, TB
46. DeVante Parker, MIA
47. Jaylen Waddle, MIA
48. Michael Pittman Jr., IND
49. Michael Thomas, NO
50. Mike Williams, LAC
51. Darnell Mooney, CHI
52. Elijah Moore, NYJ
53. Marquise Brown, BAL
54. Marvin Jones Jr., JAC
55. T.Y. Hilton, IND
56. Mecole Hardman, KC
57. Cole Beasley, BUF
58. Nelson Agholor, NE
59. Jalen Reagor, PHI
Once you hit tier 7 and beyond – and arguably tier 6 for that matter – beauty exists in the eye of the beholder. I’ll touch on a few guys here, starting with Randall Cobb. Nothing will boost your fantasy value more than moving from Tyrod Taylor to Aaron Rodgers at QB. While Cobb had a rough 2020 season, he has undeniable chemistry with Rodgers, and look for him to rebound as he mans the slot for the Packers. You’ll notice that Saints star WR Michael Thomas resides here, given his uncertain injury status and a concerning QB situation. He’ll likely go much higher than this, and I’d let someone else play the waiting game on him. My favorite guys from this group: Michael Pittman (provided that Wentz doesn’t miss more than a couple of games), Mike Williams, Darnell Mooney and Elijah Moore. Each of these guys has considerable upside, with the best chance of outperforming their draft slot selections. As you get down to the deep part of the draft, go with upside players and see if you catch lightening in a bottle.
Draft Strategy:
With wide receiver remaining as deep as ever with quality starting options, my suggestion would be to focus your efforts on securing your top running back first, as long as you have access to a tier 1 or 2 RB. I would also take Travis Kelce at tight end before selecting the top WR on the board here, just due to positional scarcity. It’s fine if the first WR you select comes from tier 3 (but not below there), provided that your prior picks are dedicated to securing the RB spots or a top 3 TE. In case the draft board breaks so that you draft a WR within the top 2 tiers, no problem, but make sure to take care of RB at the very least. As you’ve noticed, I haven’t mentioned QB yet here. You should prioritize your top WR over your top QB, for the same reason RB should be prioritized over WR…positional scarcity. Re-emphasizing this word so you keep it top of mind!
As a goal, aim to take your top WR among tiers 1 through 3, with your second WR coming no later than tier 4. Tiers 5-6 provide solid WR3 / flex options. For the rest of your bench (i.e. WR4 / WR5), roll the dice on upside plays. There are plenty of options in the later rounds. And as mentioned in the RB piece, run some mock drafts with a WR as your first round pick, and compare your roster against a mock with a RB as your top selection. What you’ll notice is that the dropoff at WR with your RB-first roster will be lower than the dropoff at RB with your WR-first roster. WR is such a deep position, that you can be just fine without the highest echelon of the position.