TIER 1
1. Travis Kelce, KC
This will be my simplest writeup in the fantasy football draft guide. Chiefs’ tight end Travis Kelce sits alone in tier 1 as fantasy football’s top tight end. Five straight years with more than 1,000 receiving yards, 38 TDs during this span and Patrick Mahomes as his QB…enough said. Kelce should be selected in the middle of the first round of fantasy drafts.
TIER 2
2. George Kittle, SF
3. Darren Waller, LV
The next tight end grouping doesn’t merit debate, while the order of the two constituents does. If you have Waller ranked ahead of Kittle, that’s perfectly understandable. Kittle sits ahead on my draft board because he’s just that much more dominant of a receiver when healthy. Only a year ago, Kittle sat ahead of Kelce on some draft boards. The bet here is that Kittle stays healthy this season and returns to 2019 form. Given the dearth of quality tight ends and the dropoff that comes from the upper echelon to the next levels, feel free to snag your preferred member of the tier 2 duo as early as mid round 2, with round 3 becoming must draft territory if either TE remains available.
TIER 3
4. Kyle Pitts, ATL
5. Mark Andrews, BAL
6. T.J. Hockenson, DET
As we move into tier 3, we’ve got…you guessed it, three tight ends! Eventually this numerically matching run will end, but enjoy the ride for now. Anyways, this troika represents the last of the safe tight ends. Kyle Pitts will play a heavy role in the Falcons offense right from the start, with only Calvin Ridley to be targeted more frequently by QB Matt Ryan. Mark Andrews has been QB Lamar Jackson’s favorite target the past two years, and look for the good times to continue between that passing battery. While TJ Hockenson suffers a downgrade at QB from Matthew Stafford to Jared Goff, can you name one wide receiver for the Lions? Me neither. Hock will be “the guy” in Detroit. Somewhere within rounds 4 to 6 makes sense for those of you who want to pull the trigger on a safe tight end, as there’s a steep dropoff from here to the rest of the board.
TIER 4
7. Dallas Goedert, PHI
8. Tyler Higbee, LAR
9. Noah Fant, DEN
I wasn’t able to sneak in a fourth tight end into this group, so our streak of tier population matching tier status officially ends here. Dallas Goedert has taken over as the lead TE in Philly’s offense, while fellow TE Zach Ertz and the team continue their awkward dance of trying to break up. With Gerald Everett departed from the Rams, Tyler Higbee has a chance to explode offensively, in similar fashion to his down-the-stretch performance in 2019. No TE is ranked higher on my board compared to ADP than Higbee, as he’s currently the 19th highest drafted TE per ESPN leagues. Broncos’ tight end Noah Fant has all the tools within his control to be in the upper echelon at the position, but unfortunately he’s powerless to upgrade the Broncos’ QB situation. If you don’t select one of the tight ends from tiers 1 through 3, I’d recommend waiting until at least the 10th round before selecting a player from this group or the one below, as you can get similar options to Goedert and Fant later in the draft in case they’re gone, and Higbee you should be able to snag later as well - unless someone else in your league reads my work.
TIER 5
10. Logan Thomas, WAS
11. Robert Tonyan, GB
12. Irv Smith Jr., MIN
13. Mike Gesicki, MIA
14. Jonnu Smith, NE
15. Evan Engram, NYG
16. Adam Trautman, NO
Logan Thomas had a breakout 2020 season, and he leads us into tier 5. While Thomas will enter 2021 with an upgrade at QB, the team also has an additional mouth to feed in Curtis Samuel. That keeps Thomas at the top of tier 5 and not higher. Robert Tonyan scored 11 TDs last season off only 59 receptions, so don’t be surprised to see some TD regression. Irv Smith gets the Vikings’ TE gig all to himself with Kyle Rudolph gone, while Mike Gesicki looks to build off a strong 2020 season with the Dolphins. Jonnu Smith will likely be the lead of the Patriots’ new TE duo, with Hunter Henry sitting one tier below. Evan Engram has the talent to sit in tier 3, but just can’t stay healthy to save his life. Adam Trautman makes for a nice late round sleeper, especially now with Michael Thomas missing the first handful of games for the Saints.
I’d recommend selecting someone from this group with a late round pick in case you don’t address the tight end position through the earlier tiers.
TIER 6
17. Hunter Henry, NE
18. Blake Jarwin, DAL
19. Rob Gronkowski, TB
20. Gerald Everett, SEA
21. Austin Hooper, CLE
22. Anthony Firkser, TEN
23. Cole Kmet, CHI
Won’t get too far in depth into tier 6, as these are mostly bye week fillers. They should only be drafted in 14+ team leagues. If you want to play with upside here, keep an eye on Gerald Everett and Cole Kmet.
Draft Strategy:
The tight end position has a few stars and then a bunch of guys. Let’s take a closer look at the 2020 numbers. The top 10 tight ends (per Yahoo scoring) are listed below:
1. Travis Kelce, 260
2. Darren Waller, 226
3. Robert Tonyan, 150
4. TJ Hockenson, 142
5. Mark Andrews, 141
6. Logan Thomas, 139
7. Mike Gesicki, 132
8. Rob Gronkowski, 126
9. Hayden Hurst, 121
10. Jonnu Smith, 119
Andrews played in 14 games, while Kelce, Gesicki and Smith played in 15 games, with the balance of TEs playing a full slate of 16 games. With this information in hand, note the following:
• Kelce, the highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 17 PPG
• Waller, the 2nd highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 14 PPG
• Tonyan, the 3rd highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 9 PPG
• Smith, the 10th highest scoring TE, averaged ~ 8 PPG
So if you had Kelce last season, you averaged an additional 8 PPG over the 3rd highest scoring TE! And if you had Waller, you averaged an additional 5 PPG over the next (3rd) highest scoring. Finally, once you compare TE3 down to TE10, the only difference is approximately 1 PPG from top to bottom. As you run further down the list, the dropoff continues to be minimal.
Heading into 2021, Kittle will rejoin Waller at the non-Kelce high tier, while the tier 3 trio - Pitts, Andrews and Hockenson - should each carve out production above the 2020 Tonyan (think 10-11 PPG). Then you’ll have a smear of TEs with similar production over the course of the season.
With this information in mind, I suggest the following strategy at tight end – either draft one of the big three, or address the position towards the end of your draft. Folks will likely overpay for the tier 3 troika, and once you fall into tier 4 and below, as you see from the numbers above, the returns will largely mimic each other.