Last week: 6-6 after I mistakenly omitted a couple of games. It’s upsetting because I would have had the Bengals winning and the Rams losing, but after-the-fact boasting matters not. 110-67 straight up on the season.
This week sees a predominance of home underdogs. We’re approaching the time of year where disappointing teams tend to check out, so be wary…
All lines are from BetOnline as of 8:30 AM on Dec. 2nd
Thursday Night
- Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints (+5.5): The Saints might need an asterisk because the team New Orleans is fielding is missing so many key components that the team’s own broadcasting crew will need a roster cheat sheet. Dallas is not a favorable foe to face in those circumstances.
Cowboys 33, Saints 12
Sunday Games
- Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (+7): The first meeting between these two NFC North rivals was decided on a 54-yard FG from Vikings kicker Greg Joseph as time expired. Minnesota has enough injury issues to give the winless Lions some hope, but only if the Detroit offense actually tries to win--something they’ve yet to do since head coach Dan Campbell took over playcalling three weeks ago.
Vikings 26, Lions 17
- Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (+7.5): The Cardinals return to Chicago 62 years after fleeing the city for the friendlier confines of St. Louis. It figures to be the last time they play at Soldier Field. Beware the early start in an outdoor venue for a dome team from the West. Having said that, the Cardinals are the better team on both sides of the ball and can establish that quickly.
Cardinals 32, Bears 18
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (+11.5): Tampa Bay won the first meeting 48-25 back in Week 2. The Falcons haven’t scored 25 points in the last three weeks combined and haven’t beaten a team yet that currently has a winning record. Guess what? We’ll still be able to say that after this weekend.
Buccaneers 34, Falcons 10
- Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+9): The only way the Texans stand a chance here is if the Colts are overzealous to get to their freakishly late Week 14 bye. Indianapolis won the first meeting 31-3 in a game where Johnathan Taylor ran for 145 yards and two TDs. He can do it again and solidify his grip on the NFL rushing title. Tyrod Taylor is good enough to add a touchdown to the Texans tally they netted with Davis Mills at QB, but not much more. Good week to flex in TY Hilton at wide receiver for fantasy purposes; Hilton has 1.798 yards and 11 TDs in 19 career games against the Texans.
Colts 31, Texans 10
- Philadelphia Eagles at New York Jets (+6.5): I saw a bald eagle this week while driving along the Lake Michigan shoreline just south of Grand Haven. I’ll take that as a sign to trust in the Eagles here. Then again, I see a jet plane almost every day. Eh, the more unusual object still wins out.
Eagles 35, Jets 23
- Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-3): Huge game for the AFC playoff race, pitting two of the conference’s three current Wild Card teams against one another in Cincinnati. The Bengals offense has been orange-hot in the two games since their bye, scoring 73 points in routing both the Raiders and Steelers. The Chargers are capable of keeping up, but the Justin Herbert restrictor plate that is L.A. offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi makes it unlikely. If the Chargers are going to win this one, it’s incumbent upon their defense to force takeaways and get off the field on third downs reliably. Entering the game, the Chargers defense is 31st on third downs and they’re 22nd in interceptions. D’oh.
Bengals 33, Chargers 27
- New York Giants at Miami Dolphins (-4): Tua Tagovailoa gets a lot of criticism, including from this analyst, but give the Dolphins QB some credit. He’s posted very impressive and consistent lines from three of his last four starts.
32-of-40, 291 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs, QB Rating of 109.5 in Week 7
27-of-33, 273 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, QB Rating of 108.7 in Week 11
27-of-31, 230 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs, QB Rating of 108.3 in Week 12
If he can keep the consistency against the Giants it will be an impressive feat. New York’s pass defense has picked off 8 passes in the last 3 weeks. The Giants do give up yards and sustained drives, however.
Dolphins 24, Giants 14
- Washington Football Team at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5): Two of the most unpredictable teams from week to week means it’s time for the magic 8-ball (still the best low-tech gift for a 12-year-old boy ever made).
Will the Raiders win at home?
“Most likely”
Can’t argue with the magic 8-ball!
Raiders 27, Football Team 24, most likely…
- Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams (-13): Just what the doctor ordered for the ailing Rams, losers of three in a row since going “all-in” to win this year: the lowly Jaguars. Jacksonville has also lost three in a row and is struggling to score. The Jaguars have scored a total of 47 points in the last five weeks. They’re not going to score much in Los Angeles either, barring Matthew Stafford throwing a pick-six for the fourth straight week. And that could happen, but don’t bet on it.
Rams 22, Jaguars 13
- Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5): After watching the two QBs here, Lamar Jackson and Ben Roethlisberger, and how they played last weekend, I’m absolutely flabbergasted the line here is only 4.5 points. Baltimore has its foibles, but these Steelers look positively cooked. And that starts with the fat guy throwing the ball like a minor league junkballer.
Ravens 29, Steelers 10
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5): Speaking of teams that look positively cooked, Seattle has sunken to the bottom of the NFC West. There is only so much more frustration Pete Carroll can take out on his prolific chewing gum when his team fails to execute the way the Seahawks are playing in the last few weeks. Sorry Pete, but the bottom is deeper than you’ve reached right now. The 49ers will help sink Seattle lower.
49ers 30, Seahawks 20
- Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-10): For all the consternation about the demise of the Chiefs, they’ve been one of the AFC’s two best teams (with New England) for the last month. But these Broncos are no pushover, having won three of four and doing so with a defense that doesn’t appear to miss Von Miller nearly as much as expected. I’m very comfortable with expecting the Chiefs to prevail, but that point spread seems disrespectfully ignorant to Denver’s ability.
Chiefs 30, Broncos 24
Monday Night
- New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-3): I want to trust the Bills at home, I really do. But the inconsistent play from Buffalo’s defense and also QB Josh Allen is a tough sell against the surging Patriots, who seized first place in the AFC East last week. Turning the ball over 11 times in four weeks as the Bills have done is not the kind of track record to bring into a game with Bill Belichick and the schematically strong Patriots coming to town.
Patriots 26, Bills 20
College Games
Championship weekend should be great!
Utah 33, Oregon 28
Western Kentucky 40, UTSA 34
Kent State 29, Northern Illinois 24
San Diego State 28, Utah State 20
Louisiana 33, Appalachian State 30
Michigan 20, Iowa 6
Pittsburgh 44, Wake Forest 36
Georgia 27, Alabama 17
Houston 30, Cincinnati 28
Oklahoma State 29, Baylor 24