Last week: 8-6. The season forecast is now 127-81, with the two ties counted as losses.
‘Tis the season for Saturday NFL games. We get three this week, prepping us for a Week 16 where almost every game is on Saturday, which happens to be Christmas Eve. The bye weeks, which extended an incredible 10 weeks, are now done.
Thursday Night
- San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (+3.5): We get what might be the best game of the weekend to kick things off. Brock Purdy and the first-place 49ers look to seal up the NFC West, but Pete Carroll’s Seahawks will not be an easy win. The issue for Seattle is their dreadful run defense, which gives up a league-worst 5.7 yards per carry over the last month. The Seattle defensive front just isn’t proving it can stop significantly lesser rushing attacks than the one Kyle Shanahan dials up for the 49ers offense. I suspect Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and the Seattle offense will keep pace pretty well, but not quite well enough.
49ers 30, Seahawks 24
Saturday Games
- Indianapolis Colts at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5): The Vikings clinch the NFC North with a win, and playing at home against the underwhelming Colts should allow them to light up the celebratory stogies in the locker room. Keep an eye on the Vikings hit-and-miss run game and in absentia pass rush, however.
Vikings 32, Colts 22
- Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (-2): No, that’s not a misprint; the Browns are favored. As I write this out on Wednesday night, the Ravens appear to be entering this game without both starting QB Lamar Jackson and backup Tyler Huntley. The beleaguered Browns defense just lost its fourth--and best--LB to injured reserve, but I think they can handle whatever Baltimore tries to (literally) throw at them. If not, Cleveland DC Joe Woods should find a pink slip in his stocking.
Browns 20, Ravens 16
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-7.5): Miami has played one game that would qualify as “good” in the last six weeks. Sure, they’ve won some games in that stretch, but those were as much about the weakness of the opponent as anything great from the Dolphins themselves. Rookie head coach Mike McDaniel sorely needs this win, but traveling to Buffalo in December is never easy. This is a Dolphins team that had portable heaters fired up on the sidelines last weekend when it was in the 50s, after all…
Bills 33, Dolphins 20
Sunday Games
- Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-3.5): One of the NFL’s best rivalries reheats in a do-or-die game for the 4-9 Saints and their fledgling playoff hopes. New Orleans remains very much alive if they can beat back rookie QB Desmond Ridder and the 5-8 Falcons, who are just one game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. The home defense carries the day.
Saints 22, Falcons 17
- Detroit Lions at New York Jets (+1): It’s been since 2017 since the Lions didn’t have a losing record in December. As crazy as it might sound, it’s been two years longer for the Jets. The 2015 edition of New York, the one with Ryan Fitzpatrick at QB and Pro Bowlers Chris Ivory and Brandon Marshall as his triplets, was the last time (until Week 13 this year) the Jets were a .500 team in December.
Man, that Jets team was a fun one. Fitzmagic with those weapons plus nifty Jeremy Kerley and steady Eric Decker on offense. Revis Island and Antonio Cromartie as the CBs. David Harris and Demario Davis at LB behind Snacks Harrison and Muhammad Wilkerson. Imagine how different the world is today if Fitzpatrick doesn’t throw three 4th-quarter INTs in a must-win finale against the Bills. Those Jets make the playoffs instead of Pittsburgh. Maybe they don’t go on to have one of the worst draft classes of all-time next spring. Maybe Todd Bowles earns more coaching credit in the bank and lasts one year longer, preventing the Adam Gase experience. Sigh.
Lions 28, Jets 24
- Cincinnati Bengals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5): The Bengals might be the best team in the AFC right now. They’re playing sharp, well-coordinated football on both sides of the ball. No one has spoken those words about Tampa Bay in weeks. Not gonna overthink think this one.
Bengals 30, Buccaneers 21
- Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears (+8.5): The Eagles come to town to give the Bears fans a taste of what peak Justin Fields can look like with Jalen Hurts and his merry band of receivers. Unfortunately, those fans also have to watch the Bears defense try and stop it. Good day to be a beer vendor at Soldier Field.
Eagles 38, Bears 20
- Pittsburgh Steelers at Carolina Panthers (-2): Not gonna lie; I read this as Steel Panther and instantly transformed back into the 14-year-old knucklehead that incredible band turns grown men into. So many wildly inappropriate classic songs that leave the “double” out of entendre. You might be better served going through the Steel Panther album catalog than watching this game.
Steelers 23, Panthers 20
- Dallas Cowboys at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5): Potential trap game for the Cowboys in advance of their showdown with the Eagles next week. The Jaguars have been playing well recently aside from getting eviscerated in Detroit two weeks ago. They’re capable of ruining the Cowboys if Mike McCarthy doesn’t have his Dallas team ready on both sides of the ball. I have faith in the Cowboys, mainly Tony Pollard and his ability to exploit the truly awful Jaguars tackling.
Cowboys 31, Jaguars 28
- Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans (+14.5): Houston, by far the worst team in the league, will play this one without several of its key performers, notably rookies CB Derek Stingley Jr. and RB Dameon Pierce. The Texans are woefully overmatched even with those guys.
Chiefs 38, Texans 16
- Arizona Cardinals at Denver Broncos (NL): Which team can get to the front of the coaching carousel line? With no Kyler Murray, it sure feels like Kliff Kingsbury and the Cardinals are burnt toast. The Broncos have been buttered for weeks now, though a slight burst of life last week is convincing enough to take them over (checks notes) Colt McCoy and the visitors from Arizona.
Broncos 18, Cardinals 13
- New England Patriots at Las Vegas Raiders (-1): The Raiders should win. Should. That’s been true a few other times too, and Las Vegas has handled that about as well as an eager Amish teen on Rumspringa visiting Las Vegas. Barring Mac Jones actually throat-punching Matt Patricia on the sideline-- and you know he wants to--I think the Patriots survive here.
Patriots 27, Raiders 20
- Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5): Tennessee enters this game having lost three in a row. Their lack of defense has become a huge concern, and now they draw Justin Herbert? Yeah, but Justin Herbert is playing under OC Joe Lombardi. The same Lombardi who once made an offense featuring Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Golden Tate and Reggie Bush boring and inept. I can see Mike Vrabel’s Titans getting right against Lombardi. That’s about the only reason to like Tennessee here.
Titans 24, Chargers 22
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders (-4.5): Massive game in the NFC playoffs and a rematch of the Week 13 meeting where the two teams battled to a draw. Since then, Washington got a chance to rest and rehab with a bye, while the Giants got run over by the Eagles steamroller. The Giants are 1-4-1 in their last six games and the win was a rather uncertain one over the lowly Texans. Hard to see them finding enough fumes in the tank to burn past a resorted, prepared Washington team.
Commanders 30, Giants 24
Monday Night
- Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-7.5): Imagine the excitement when the schedule-makers landed this game for the Monday night before Christmas--arguably the two most-favored teams in the NFC back in May. Now the Packers are playing to stave off mathematical elimination and the Rams are in the prominent running for the worst record in the conference. Good night to wrap up some holiday shopping, even for the diehard fans of these teams.
Packers 33, Rams 12