Running Backs
Tier 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco
49ers’ do-it-all running back Christian McCaffrey sits alone atop tier 1. McCaffrey has proven to be a perfect fit in Kyle Shanahan’s offense as a rusher and pass catcher, while still sitting in the prime of his career.
McCaffrey should be no worse than a top-3 overall pick, with number one overall being where I would take him.
Tier 2
2. Bijan Robinson, Atlanta
3. Breece Hall, NY Jets
Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall match McCaffrey in terms of potential, but just have less certainty. Neither player has put up the wow numbers that they are capable of, but that’s a result of their environs rather than their capabilities. Now that Arthur Smith and his fascination with Tyler Allgeier have departed, Robinson should post crooked numbers. With Aaron Rodgers hopefully healthy to guide the Jets’ offense, Hall busts out this year too.
This duo belongs in the top half of round 1. Whether they go ahead of the top wide receivers depends on preference and league scoring system.
Tier 3
4. Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis
5. Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit
6. Saquon Barkley, Philadelphia
7. Kyren Williams, LA Rams
Tier 3 starts with Jonathan Taylor, who hopes to finally be fully healthy to go alongside QB Anthony Richardson. It will be interesting to see how Taylor’s TD total is impacted with Richardson inevitably securing some rushing TDs as well. But Richardson’s presence will also open up rushing lanes for Taylor.
Jahmyr Gibbs looks to build off a fantastic rookie season. He’s a high floor, high ceiling option given his role in the Lions’ passing game. Saquon Barkley will look weird in an Eagles’ uniform, but with Hurts handing him the ball, Barkley will face favorable rushing situations as an Eagle. There is some level of concern as to Hurts vulturing TDs as well, similar to Taylor.
Kyren Williams rounds out the group, showing in 2023 that he’s a franchise ball carrier. While the Rams added RB Blake Corum through the 2024 draft, don’t let that dissuade you from keeping Williams high on your board. Sean McVay has shown a preference for bell cow usage of RBs – when he’s had a capable rusher. While Corum will see the field for a series here and there, he will be the clear backup to Williams.
The back half of round 1 through the top of round 2 make sense for the tier 3 studs.
Tier 4
8. Derrick Henry, Baltimore
9. Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City
10. Travis Etienne, Jacksonville
11. De\\\'Von Achane, Miami
Derrick Henry lands in the perfect spot next to Lamar Jackson in Baltimore as he navigates life as a 30-year-old NFL RB. King Henry will find the endzone aplenty while experiencing a renaissance. Meanwhile, Chiefs’ RB Isiah Pacheco will continue to thrive playing in Patrick Mahomes’ offense.
Jaguars’ RB Travis Etienne has posted back to back 1k yard seasons, last year accompanied by 11 TDs. While he may face some TD regression this season, his floor remains high due to his receiving volume. We finish here with De’Von Achane, who electrified the league in his rookie year with 7.8 yards per carry! That’s an insane statistic. While the YPC will inevitably come down, Achane has incredible burst and elusivity. On the flip side, he’s small at the listed 5’9” and 188 lbs, which brings into question how much volume he can handle.
This quartet of RBs should disappear off draft boards starting in mid-round 2 and through the early part of round 3.
Tier 5
12. Josh Jacobs, Green Bay
13. Joe Mixon, Houston
14. James Cook, Buffalo
15. Kenneth Walker, Seattle
16. Rachaad White, Tampa Bay
17. Aaron Jones, Minnesota
Tier 5 starts with two familiar RBs in new places. Josh Jacobs swaps his silver and black for the Packers’ green and gold. Jacobs has upside in what will be a prolific Packers’ offense. Longtime Bengal Joe Mixon now dons a Texans’ uniform, also taking residence in a high powered passing attack. The table is set for both players to have successful team transitions, facing favorable rushing situations as teams gear to stop the pass.
On the flip side, the Bills’ passing weaponry has deteriorated from last season. This should mean more touches for James Cook, including in the passing game. Kenneth Walker has the highest upside among the tier 5 group, as he’s an electric rusher with the ability to break any game open. Therein lies the rub – Walker tries to make every rushing attempt a 50 yard house call. Taking the yards that are there will result in more consistency and ultimately more carries / yards. We’ll see if that growth happens in 2024.
While Walker possesses incredible upside, Rachaad White has lower projection but more stability. White’s only averaging 3.7 yards per carry for his career, but he’s also secured a role in the Bucs’ passing game – 114 receptions over two seasons. Thus, White’s your high floor play based on volume. We finish with longtime Packer Aaron Jones, who slides over to division rival Minnesota this year. Jones’ value drops from previous years due to the uncertainty at QB for the Vikings, but he’ll be leaned on heavily to help either Sam Darnold or rookie JJ McCarthy.
The tier 5 group belongs in rounds 3 and 4 of your drafts, with a dropoff coming as we move to the next tiers.
Tier 6
18. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans
19. James Conner, Arizona
20. Zamir White, Las Vegas
21. Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
22. David Montgomery, Detroit
23. D\\\'Andre Swift, Chicago
24. Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh
25. Jonathan Brooks, Carolina
26. Zack Moss, Cincinnati
27. Najee Harris, Pittsburgh
Once you land into zone 6 – which will actually happen quickly in drafts – you will be facing question marks with each player. Kamara’s reaching an age cliff, Conner is run-only, White hasn’t been a bell cow before, etc. My favorites from the tier 6 group are White (just because he hasn’t done it doesn’t mean he can’t!), Stevenson, Brooks and Moss.
White will take on more touches than he knows what to do with this season, and should post his best ever season. Stevenson resides on a team largely devoid of skill player talent, so while he will be the focus of defensive game plans, the Patriots’ RB will also pile up the touches. Jonathan Brooks checks in as the top ranked rookie fantasy RB, with not much standing in his way of taking the Panthers’ RB job and running with it (pun intended). Meanwhile, Zack Moss slides in nicely in place of Joe Mixon in Cincinnati.
David Montgomery will continue to serve as the thunder to Jahmyr Gibbs’ lightening in Detroit. The concern here is that he will face touchdown regression while also seeing less touches this year. D’Andre Swift finds himself in a suddenly interesting offense in Chicago. If he can stay healthy, Swift will be a fantasy bargain here. The Steelers’ duo of Jaylen Warren and Najee Harris will continue to split duties in Pittsburgh, with Warren being the preferred pick if your league has any element of PPR.
Once you hit this point in the draft, rankings among the tier 6 group will vary widely. This group of RBs will likely get overdrafted due to panic and positional scarcity. In terms of value, rounds 5 through 7 align for this tier.
Tier 7
28. Tony Pollard, Tennessee
29. Brian Robinson, Washington
30. Raheem Mostert, Miami
31. Devin Singletary, NY Giants
32. Austin Ekeler, Washington
33. Javonte Williams, Denver
34. Tyjae Spears, Tennessee
35. Gus Edwards, LA Chargers
36. Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas
37. Nick Chubb, Cleveland
38. Chase Brown, Arizona
39. Zach Charbonnet, Seattle
Not sure if another running back took a worse hit in terms of his situation than Tony Pollard moving from the Cowboys to the Titans. Pollard didn’t quite have the season many projected last year as the Cowboys’ bell cow, and he now transitions to one of the worst offenses in the league. He will cede some snaps to Tyjae Spears. The Commanders’ Brian Robinson hasn’t shown much wiggle in the NFL, and figures to be primarily a rushing down player…ceding snaps to Austin Ekeler on passing downs.
There are a few RBs here whose values would skyrocket in case the player in front of them got injured…we’re talking about Raheem Mostert, Zach Charbonnet and potentially Chase Brown. Otherwise Devin Singletary should have the lead rushing role in a limited offense, while Javonte Williams and Gus Edwards figure to lead time shares. Ezekiel Elliot returns to the Cowboys, but the opportunity he returns to is greater than today’s version of the player. With Nick Chubb returning from a severe injury, he’s likely another year away from being his normal self.
Rounds 8 through 10 would be the ideal slots to grab the RBs here.
Tier 8
40. Jerome Ford, Cleveland
41. Rico Dowdle, Dallas
42. Blake Corum, LA Rams
43. Kendre Miller, New Orleans
44. Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver
45. Antonio Gibson, New England
46. Chuba Hubbard, Carolina
47. MarShawn Lloyd, Green Bay
48. Tyler Allgeier, Atlanta
49. JK Dobbins, LA Chargers
50. Bucky Irving, Tampa Bay
51. Ray Davis, Buffalo
52. Kimani Vidal, LA Chargers
53. Elijah Mitchell, San Francisco
Once you reach tier 8, all bets are off. You are essentially taking flyers, though some of these players could end up being league winners – you never know! Once you reach these depths, you should target two types of players: (1) younger, up-and-coming guys, and (2) players who, with an injury to the starter, would become instant RB2s and above. So from this list, Kendre Miller, Bucky Irving, Ray Davis and Kimani Vidal fit the first category, while Blake Corum (who also fits the first category but remains firmly blocked by Kyren Williams), MarShawn Lloyd, Tyler Allgeier and Elijah Mitchell fit the second category. Spend your late round picks chasing upside and flyers who could elevate to a much larger role if one domino falls.
Rounds 11 and upward do the trick for these remaining RBs.
Draft Strategy:
Running back remains a position with discernable tiers and short on bell cows. So if you want to snag a flagship level RB, you’ll need to act early. For your draft strategy, aim to grab at least one back from the tier 1-4 group, with your second RB ideally by tier 5. If the draft rolls on and you only land one RB from tiers 1 – 5, then make sure to pick two players from the tier 6 group to at least provide you with high end depth.
As you enter tiers 7 and 8 later in your drafts, target players who are one play away from an elevated role (i.e. timeshare), or otherwise have a shot to usurp the starting role during the season from the incumbent RB. Avoid the players who are older and on the downside of their careers. The goal here is to try to find a player that will pop during the season.
Personal Note
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