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Tight Ends, Tier 1
1. Sam LaPorta, Detroit
2. Travis Kelce, Kansas City

We have a changing of the guard at tight end, with Detroit’s Sam LaPorta usurping Taylor Swift’s boyfriend as the head honcho. LaPorta made his NFL debut in 2023, hauling in 86 passes for just under 900 yards – with 10 TDs to boot. Kelce bested LaPorta’s receptions and yardage, but only notched half of LaPorta’s TDs. Touchdowns have annual randomness to them, so that’s not the reason for LaPorta jumping Kelce in the ranks. Rather, Kelce’s turning 35 years old mid-season, while LaPorta is just getting started in his career. KC has also substantially upgraded their passing weapons, meaning Kelce will have increased competition for targets.

Tight ends will get a later start in drafts than what we’ve seen over the last few years. Round 3 fits for the tier 1 duo.

Tight Ends, Tier 2
3. Trey McBride, Arizona
4. Mark Andrews, Baltimore
5. Kyle Pitts, Atlanta
6. Dalton Kincaid, Buffalo

The drop from tier 1 to 2 feels resembles more of a soft landing than a sudden crash. Trey McBride will be QB Kyler Murray’s second favorite target behind Marvin Harrison Jr. He should top 100 targets again, with positive TD regression. Meanwhile, the Ravens’ Mark Andrews missed 7 games last season, but was on pace for another 100 plus target season. With good health, Andrews returns to posting 800 yards and 8-10 TDs.

We move on to super athlete Kyle Pitts. Finally free of Arthur Smith’s playcalling musings, we’ll finally see this year if Pitts can put together an all pro type season. Besides the upgrade in coaching, Pitts has a much better QB situation, while continuing with teammates on offense who will divert a lot of attention from him. Look for 2024 to be Pitts’ best season yet.

We end tier 2 with Bills’ TE Dalton Kincaid, a player who was targeted 91 times by QB Josh Allen in 2023. With both WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis no longer with the Bills, Allen will need to rely on Kincaid even more in 2024.

Rounds 4 and 5 should be the landing spots for the tier 2 group.

Tight Ends, Tier 3
7. Jake Ferguson, Dallas
8. Evan Engram, Jacksonville
9. George Kittle, San Francisco
10. David Njoku, Cleveland
11. Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia
12. Brock Bowers, Las Vegas

While tight end lacks superstar power this year, the position boasts strong depth, with the tier 3 group each serving as a solid starting option. Cowboys’ tight end Jake Ferguson has been rising up draft boards, as fantasy managers wise up to his value. Last year the former Wisconsin Badger had 102 targets, catching 71 balls for 761 yards and 5 TDs. Now take away RB Tony Pollard and WR Michael Gallup from the mix, and you see the path for Ferguson’s touches to increase this year.

Evan Engram found himself a nice home in Jacksonville over the last few years, with the 2023 season constituting a crescendo with 114 receptions. Engram has a great connection with Lawrence, but there will be increased competition for touches this year with Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr. joining the organization. So don’t expect 114 receptions again, but 80-90 sounds reasonable.

George Kittle has settled into a comfortable expectation of 60-70 receptions, 900ish yards and 6-8 TDs. Lots of mouths to feed in San Francisco, but Kittle will get his. David Njoku finished the 2023 season with an exclamation point, with 38 catches, 391 yards and 4 TDs over the last four games. These games were without Deshaun Watson at QB, however, so there’s at least some concern that the Watson-Njoku connection doesn’t have the same electricity.

Dallas Goedert finds himself under the radar this season, as his receiving yards and average yards per reception dropped substantially in 2023 in comparison to the previous two seasons. But Goedert’s 2023 targets were tracking around the same as prior seasons, so there’s hope for a rebound in 2024. We finish tier 4 with rookie sensation Brock Bowers, who invokes comparisons to George Kittle and Sam LaPorta. Time will tell if those comparisons hold, but yes we are excited to see Bowers in action! The Raiders have Davante Adams as the center of the passing game, with no one holding back Bowers from becoming the number 2 target in routes.

As mentioned above, nothing wrong with starting a tight end among this group above, as you can get them at a reasonable price in your drafts. Rounds 6 through 9 make sense for the tier 3 group.

Tight Ends, Tier 4
13. Dalton Schultz, Houston
14. Cole Kmet, Chicago
15. TJ Hockenson, Minnesota
16. Taysom Hill, New Orleans
17. Luke Musgrave, Green Bay
18. Noah Fant, Seattle
19. Pat Freiermuth, Pittsburgh

Quick notes through the tier 4 group, which profile primarily as high end backups / spot starters. The one exception is TJ Hockenson – who finds himself in this group because of his current knee injury. Otherwise, both Dalton Schultz and Cole Kmet find themselves in suddenly dynamic offenses with young QBs – though each will be no better than the fourth option on offense. Saints’ mainstay Taysom Hill will score two TDs one week, then barely factor into the game plan the next three games. Luke Musgrave and Noah Fant face a similar situation to Schultz and Kmet in terms of their standing in their respective offenses. Pat Freiermuth now inherits a QB who doesn’t throw to the middle of the field, so he’s borderline droppable to the next tier.

You shouldn’t reach for these tight ends until rounds 12 and later.

Draft Strategy:

For the tight end class, the plan can be described quite easily. Don’t reach for a tight end, and grab one from within the top three tiers. That’s it!

Personal Note

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