Re: Which team will win the 2016 NBA Finals?

[RealGM Polls]

1. Warriors
2. Cavaliers

[Metsis]

Well, it will be a series this time around... I think Warriors are not ready for the full strength Cavs and they will win it this time around. Remember that Cavs were down 2 of their 3 best players last year at this phase... Makes a big difference. Taking Klay and Draymond off of the Warriors roster wouldn't change anything, right???

[antistrat]

The Warriors were playing better last year, and still could hardly handle an undermanned Year 1 Cavs. They fell down 2-1 to a team with only LeBron and no chemistry.

This year the Dubs are playing worse, but Year 2 Cavs are healthy and firing on all cylinders. So why would Golden State be able to handle Cleveland today?

All signs point to Cleveland in at least 6. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was Cleveland in 5.

I can see Golden State losing Game 1 (too little rest, too little time to prepare + coming off difficult 7 game series), but they probably win Game 2. Cleveland takes Game 3 and Game 4 at home. The championship is won on the road in Game 5.

LeBron Finals MVP (which he should've won last year as well).

[skulky]

The Warriors were playing better last year, and still could hardly handle an undermanned Year 1 Cavs. They fell down 2-1 to a team with only LeBron and no chemistry.

This year the Dubs are playing worse, but Year 2 Cavs are healthy and firing on all cylinders. So why would Golden State be able to handle Cleveland today?

All signs point to Cleveland in at least 6. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was Cleveland in 5.

I can see Golden State losing Game 1 (too little rest, too little time to prepare + coming off difficult 7 game series), but they probably win Game 2. Cleveland takes Game 3 and Game 4 at home. The championship is won on the road in Game 5.

LeBron Finals MVP (which he should've won last year as well).

i think the cavs matched up better last year with the injuries to love and kyrie. there's no where to hide kyrie and love and they will be destroyed or on the bench. i think lebron is still good for a game on his own, golden state in 5.
i dont think the thunder or warriors lose a game in the east playoffs, let alone 2 to that garbage toronto team. the cavs defense has been scary bad in the playoffs. They rode hot shooting into the conference finals. Seriously how do they guard curry and klay? And Kevin Love has already been exposed in playoffs, he can't defend the green/curry pick and roll and if he's on the floor they're just going to run that over and over.

[antistrat]

The Warriors were playing better last year, and still could hardly handle an undermanned Year 1 Cavs. They fell down 2-1 to a team with only LeBron and no chemistry.

This year the Dubs are playing worse, but Year 2 Cavs are healthy and firing on all cylinders. So why would Golden State be able to handle Cleveland today?

All signs point to Cleveland in at least 6. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was Cleveland in 5.

I can see Golden State losing Game 1 (too little rest, too little time to prepare + coming off difficult 7 game series), but they probably win Game 2. Cleveland takes Game 3 and Game 4 at home. The championship is won on the road in Game 5.

LeBron Finals MVP (which he should've won last year as well).

i think the cavs matched up better last year with the injuries to love and kyrie. there's no where to hide kyrie and love and they will be destroyed or on the bench. i think lebron is still good for a game on his own, golden state in 5.
i dont think the thunder or warriors lose a game in the east playoffs, let alone 2 to that garbage toronto team. the cavs defense has been scary bad in the playoffs. They rode hot shooting into the conference finals. Seriously how do they guard curry and klay? And Kevin Love has already been exposed in playoffs, he can't defend the green/curry pick and roll and if he's on the floor they're just going to run that over and over.

The Cavs were far too one dimensional last year without Love and Kyrie (an obvious point). LeBron had to do everything by himself, being supported by nobody, against a defense that could shrink into the paint whenever it wanted. But despite that, Cleveland STILL found themselves up 2-1 in that series. That caused such alarm in Golden State that Kerr desperately had to change his starting lineup. Crazy, right? Not really. King James is very good. But it stands to reason that it's not going to get any easier for Golden State this year when Cleveland is not only fully healthy, but firing on all cylinders in a record breaking manner.

Look, Golden State already lost 5 games in these playoffs (after only losing 9 during the regular season), and they were just down 3-1 in this last series, and even found themselves down double digits in a Game 7 on their home floor! So they're a bit off at the moment. They're not dominant at all.

And it's not 1x MVP Kevin Durant the Warriors are up against now. It's 4x MVP and 2x Finals MVP LeBron James, WITH HELP. That's the guy who was the only star to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals (and he pretty much did it single handedly in that Game 7). In other words, give LeBron help and he can beat anybody.

So I see Cleveland as the type of team that can also put GSW into a 3-1 hole but then finish the job in Game 5.

It's perfectly reasonable to expect the Warriors to lose this series.

The Thunder would've easily lost to the Cavs, in my estimation. That wouldn't have been a close series. Probably similar to the 2012 Finals. Cleveland had home court. Durant is intimidated by LeBron. Waiters would've tried too hard. That could've been a sweep series.

[xx1c1cle]

The Warriors were playing better last year, and still could hardly handle an undermanned Year 1 Cavs. They fell down 2-1 to a team with only LeBron and no chemistry.

This year the Dubs are playing worse, but Year 2 Cavs are healthy and firing on all cylinders. So why would Golden State be able to handle Cleveland today?

All signs point to Cleveland in at least 6. But I wouldn't be surprised if it was Cleveland in 5.

I can see Golden State losing Game 1 (too little rest, too little time to prepare + coming off difficult 7 game series), but they probably win Game 2. Cleveland takes Game 3 and Game 4 at home. The championship is won on the road in Game 5.

LeBron Finals MVP (which he should've won last year as well).

i think the cavs matched up better last year with the injuries to love and kyrie. there's no where to hide kyrie and love and they will be destroyed or on the bench. i think lebron is still good for a game on his own, golden state in 5.
i dont think the thunder or warriors lose a game in the east playoffs, let alone 2 to that garbage toronto team. the cavs defense has been scary bad in the playoffs. They rode hot shooting into the conference finals. Seriously how do they guard curry and klay? And Kevin Love has already been exposed in playoffs, he can't defend the green/curry pick and roll and if he's on the floor they're just going to run that over and over.

The Cavs were far too one dimensional last year without Love and Kyrie (an obvious point). LeBron had to do everything by himself, being supported by nobody, against a defense that could shrink into the paint whenever it wanted. But despite that, Cleveland STILL found themselves up 2-1 in that series. That caused such alarm in Golden State that Kerr desperately had to change his starting lineup. Crazy, right? Not really. King James is very good. But it stands to reason that it's not going to get any easier for Golden State this year when Cleveland is not only fully healthy, but firing on all cylinders in a record breaking manner.

Look, Golden State already lost 5 games in these playoffs (after only losing 9 during the regular season), and they were just down 3-1 in this last series, and even found themselves down double digits in a Game 7 on their home floor! So they're a bit off at the moment. They're not dominant at all.

And it's not 1x MVP Kevin Durant the Warriors are up against now. It's 4x MVP and 2x Finals MVP LeBron James, WITH HELP. That's the guy who was the only star to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals (and he pretty much did it single handedly in that Game 7). In other words, give LeBron help and he can beat anybody.

So I see Cleveland as the type of team that can also put GSW into a 3-1 hole but then finish the job in Game 5.

It's perfectly reasonable to expect the Warriors to lose this series.

The Thunder would've easily lost to the Cavs, in my estimation. That wouldn't have been a close series. Probably similar to the 2012 Finals. Cleveland had home court. Durant is intimidated by LeBron. Waiters would've tried too hard. That could've been a sweep series.

IMO, you're bias against the Warriors. Your argument is one-sided. everything about that Cavs is a positive, everything about the Warriors is a negative, in your opinion. Pretty much across the board, the Warriors are favorites to win the series, and thus I believe your argument is mostly emotional and not logical. I still respect your argument, because a healthy Cavs squad with the addition of Frye is a major upgrade. Here are my questions for you:

Q1) professional teams have to play to your identity, otherwise they lose. It seems that the Cavs are trying to be like the Warriors and play small-ball, which has worked well in the playoffs at times, but also have failed miserably. The warriors may illuminate the Cavs small-ball weaknesses. Do you think that playing Lebron as Center on Draymond is the way to go? or Love? Or tristan?
Q2) Two games against the Raptors, the Cavs had a lot of trouble. The Raptors are a clear and significant drop in talent from OKC and GSW. aren't you concerned with those two games and what they could mean?
Q3) No team in the east truly had a player that could defend Lebron. The warriors have two players that could: Draymond and Andre. Barnes is an OK alternate. As in last years finals, this will slow down lebron. what you say?
Q4) It is essential that either Frye or Love have a very good game, each game for the Cavs, because their success and good-shooting spreads out the offense. But, when they're at 3p land, they're not rebounding (similar to OKC with Ibaka). And Frye and Love have been inconsistent from outside, and it doesn't seem natural. thoughts?
Q5) All betting boards at las vegas believe warriors will win. But you say they won't. Why are they wrong?

[LaRance]

Cavs will win this series in 6. Warriors defense isn't as good as it was last season. The thunder exposed a lot of the warriors weakness last round and I guarantee you Lebron and the Cavs will exploit it

[castor777]

i think the cavs matched up better last year with the injuries to love and kyrie. there's no where to hide kyrie and love and they will be destroyed or on the bench. i think lebron is still good for a game on his own, golden state in 5.
i dont think the thunder or warriors lose a game in the east playoffs, let alone 2 to that garbage toronto team. the cavs defense has been scary bad in the playoffs. They rode hot shooting into the conference finals. Seriously how do they guard curry and klay? And Kevin Love has already been exposed in playoffs, he can't defend the green/curry pick and roll and if he's on the floor they're just going to run that over and over.

The Cavs were far too one dimensional last year without Love and Kyrie (an obvious point). LeBron had to do everything by himself, being supported by nobody, against a defense that could shrink into the paint whenever it wanted. But despite that, Cleveland STILL found themselves up 2-1 in that series. That caused such alarm in Golden State that Kerr desperately had to change his starting lineup. Crazy, right? Not really. King James is very good. But it stands to reason that it's not going to get any easier for Golden State this year when Cleveland is not only fully healthy, but firing on all cylinders in a record breaking manner.

Look, Golden State already lost 5 games in these playoffs (after only losing 9 during the regular season), and they were just down 3-1 in this last series, and even found themselves down double digits in a Game 7 on their home floor! So they're a bit off at the moment. They're not dominant at all.

And it's not 1x MVP Kevin Durant the Warriors are up against now. It's 4x MVP and 2x Finals MVP LeBron James, WITH HELP. That's the guy who was the only star to beat the San Antonio Spurs in the NBA Finals (and he pretty much did it single handedly in that Game 7). In other words, give LeBron help and he can beat anybody.

So I see Cleveland as the type of team that can also put GSW into a 3-1 hole but then finish the job in Game 5.

It's perfectly reasonable to expect the Warriors to lose this series.

The Thunder would've easily lost to the Cavs, in my estimation. That wouldn't have been a close series. Probably similar to the 2012 Finals. Cleveland had home court. Durant is intimidated by LeBron. Waiters would've tried too hard. That could've been a sweep series.

IMO, you're bias against the Warriors. Your argument is one-sided. everything about that Cavs is a positive, everything about the Warriors is a negative, in your opinion. Pretty much across the board, the Warriors are favorites to win the series, and thus I believe your argument is mostly emotional and not logical. I still respect your argument, because a healthy Cavs squad with the addition of Frye is a major upgrade. Here are my questions for you:

Q1) professional teams have to play to your identity, otherwise they lose. It seems that the Cavs are trying to be like the Warriors and play small-ball, which has worked well in the playoffs at times, but also have failed miserably. The warriors may illuminate the Cavs small-ball weaknesses. Do you think that playing Lebron as Center on Draymond is the way to go? or Love? Or tristan?
Q2) Two games against the Raptors, the Cavs had a lot of trouble. The Raptors are a clear and significant drop in talent from OKC and GSW. aren't you concerned with those two games and what they could mean?
Q3) No team in the east truly had a player that could defend Lebron. The warriors have two players that could: Draymond and Andre. Barnes is an OK alternate. As in last years finals, this will slow down lebron. what you say?
Q4) It is essential that either Frye or Love have a very good game, each game for the Cavs, because their success and good-shooting spreads out the offense. But, when they're at 3p land, they're not rebounding (similar to OKC with Ibaka). And Frye and Love have been inconsistent from outside, and it doesn't seem natural. thoughts?
Q5) All betting boards at las vegas believe warriors will win. But you say they won't. Why are they wrong?

Q1 - Define "small ball"? That'd seem to suggest playing without a center, which the Cavs have done all postseason, and carry a 12-2 record with the best O-rating. They haven't really gone much smaller than that either. During the Atlanta series, they sometimes played Love at C, but again that's not exactly going small. They sometimes played with LeBron at C in the regular season against some teams, but haven't gone that route at all in the playoffs. But Lue's rotations, outside of G4 in Toronto, have stayed pretty sound all postseason with a 9-man rotation. But none of it has been playing small like the Warriors do.

Q2 - The Cavs lost 2 games, the Warriors have lost 5. Saying they should be concerned about those 2 losses is like asking are the Warriors worried about what happened to them against the Rockets or Blazers? The Cavs responded with their 2 best wins of the playoffs in Games 5 and 6, I'm pretty sure they figured out their problems at that time.

Q3 - They're the same guys LeBron faced last year. His stats - 35.8 pts, 13.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists. Obviously, those won't be the same this year since he has help on offense, but I think he's prepared for the challenge.

Q4 - Frye has shot 58% from 3 point range, the highest of any player in the playoffs. Love has certainly missed from long range, but also shooting 44% (higher than Curry, 1% lower than Klay). But their offensive rebounding has almost exclusively come from Tristan Thompson, with Love averaging only about 2 a game.

Q5 - Anyone with a brain will look at 73-9, the series the Warriors just came back to win, and feel they are likely unstoppable. This by all means feels like a team for the history books, and naturally some would even go so far to suggest why are they even playing the Cavs in the Finals and we should just go ahead and crown them champions now. Seriously, the Warriors are freaking amazing, everyone knows that - they should be favored. But the Cavs obviously have revenge on their mind and are playing as the underdogs, which usually lets teams feel a bit looser and more focused since they won't be as scrutinized for their mistakes when, after all, everyone expects them to lose. LeBron will of course be held to higher standards, but Cleveland should play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and hopefully make it an awesome series. But at the end of day, our predictions are just that - predictions. The players and coaches decide the outcome of the game, not Vegas.

[bpcox05]

I think the Cavs are going to lose the series. I don't think they match-up all that well. Their two other stars that were missing last year can create unfavorable matchups for them: Irving defending Curry, Love guarding the Draymond/Curry PnR. Then you got guys like Draymond, Bogut, & Ezeli who can check Love defensively and Iguodala who can check LeBron defensively. The Thunder would have been a way better matchup for the Cavs. The Warriors just seem like matchup "nightmare" for them.

Again, Love is a solid player in this league but I think you'll see a pretty drastic negative +/- from him in this series due to the fact that he's going to be absolutely picked apart defensively in the P&R, and he won't be able to take advantage offensively with guys like Green, Bogut, & Ezeli to check him.

If I'm Cleveland, I would honestly consider bringing Love off the bench in this series as a guy who can bring some extra shooting & scoring in the second unit (26-30 minutes a night). This might be an unpopular opinion because he's a great player, but this matchup is going to turn him into a player that hurts the Cavs more than he helps.

If I'm the Cavs, my starting lineup would be:

PG - Irving
SG - Shumpert
SF - Smith
PF - James
C - Thompson
with Dellavedova & Love as the main bench options.

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see that starting lineup adjustment from the Cavs mid-series.

[bpcox05]

Q3 - They're the same guys LeBron faced last year. His stats - 35.8 pts, 13.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists. Obviously, those won't be the same this year since he has help on offense, but I think he's prepared for the challenge.

35.8 PPG on a .477 TS%. Yuck!!

Iguodala & the rest of the Warriors defense had him locked down. They would welcome that high volume & inefficiency everyday of the week. I think most of us expect it to get better this series, but let's not throw out 35.8 PPG in last year's finals as a positive...

[castor777]

Q3 - They're the same guys LeBron faced last year. His stats - 35.8 pts, 13.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists. Obviously, those won't be the same this year since he has help on offense, but I think he's prepared for the challenge.

35.8 PPG on a .477 TS%. Yuck!!

Iguodala & the rest of the Warriors defense had him locked down. They would welcome that high volume & inefficiency everyday of the week. I think most of us expect it to get better this series, but let's not throw out 35.8 PPG in last year's finals as a positive...

It kind of was a positive when you consider his other options

Seriously though, JR Smith was the 2nd scoring option, which has never been good in JR's career (he's much better as the 3rd or 4th) and Mozgov who was fairly efficient. After that, it was literally Delly who completely ran out of gas after Game 3. He had no other choice, at all.

[gold0259]

The Cavs would have never got passed the OKC series. Dam Dollar and Russel > Kyrie.
Cleveland big three needed as many shots to gather as many points as they had. Goldenstate got such good performances from rest of team they've got to be feeling good about there top two snipers coming back to form. The Warriors have possibly two of the best defenders in the league in Dray and Dre. Klay is no slouch either. Livingston has height & length now that Roberson and Westbrook are out of his way. The output the bench was something that was non-existent in the OKC series. The other 13 guys on the squad took a TON of pressure off of the Splash Bros. Game just gives more confidence in the Splash Bros to ride their teammates and not go in to Hero ball mode.

[xx1c1cle]

Q1 - Define "small ball"? That'd seem to suggest playing without a center, which the Cavs have done all postseason, and carry a 12-2 record with the best O-rating. They haven't really gone much smaller than that either. During the Atlanta series, they sometimes played Love at C, but again that's not exactly going small. They sometimes played with LeBron at C in the regular season against some teams, but haven't gone that route at all in the playoffs. But Lue's rotations, outside of G4 in Toronto, have stayed pretty sound all postseason with a 9-man rotation. But none of it has been playing small like the Warriors do.

Q2 - The Cavs lost 2 games, the Warriors have lost 5. Saying they should be concerned about those 2 losses is like asking are the Warriors worried about what happened to them against the Rockets or Blazers? The Cavs responded with their 2 best wins of the playoffs in Games 5 and 6, I'm pretty sure they figured out their problems at that time.

Q3 - They're the same guys LeBron faced last year. His stats - 35.8 pts, 13.3 rebounds, 8.8 assists. Obviously, those won't be the same this year since he has help on offense, but I think he's prepared for the challenge.

Q4 - Frye has shot 58% from 3 point range, the highest of any player in the playoffs. Love has certainly missed from long range, but also shooting 44% (higher than Curry, 1% lower than Klay). But their offensive rebounding has almost exclusively come from Tristan Thompson, with Love averaging only about 2 a game.

Q5 - Anyone with a brain will look at 73-9, the series the Warriors just came back to win, and feel they are likely unstoppable. This by all means feels like a team for the history books, and naturally some would even go so far to suggest why are they even playing the Cavs in the Finals and we should just go ahead and crown them champions now. Seriously, the Warriors are freaking amazing, everyone knows that - they should be favored. But the Cavs obviously have revenge on their mind and are playing as the underdogs, which usually lets teams feel a bit looser and more focused since they won't be as scrutinized for their mistakes when, after all, everyone expects them to lose. LeBron will of course be held to higher standards, but Cleveland should play with a bit of a chip on their shoulder and hopefully make it an awesome series. But at the end of day, our predictions are just that - predictions. The players and coaches decide the outcome of the game, not Vegas.

You have some good points. But, I just don't think they're enough. (they- duplicitly being your points, and the cavs)
- Revenge can only get a team so far. In the finals, it is important that players become less emotional, not more. If revenge and resentment are fueling the Cavs, they're not going to be able to handle the emotional swings of the game.
- Good points about Lebron and Frye. I'd like to see more of Frye in G2. He may be able to get open shots. But, if the Cavs put Frye into the game, the Warriors will switch Curry or Thompson onto Frye, and make him look silly.
- Small Ball is not the identity of the Cavs. Love, JR Smith, and Irving are not great two way players. Love has awful lateral speed, and Smith and Irving are terrible at defensive switching.
- look at this: http://ftw.usatoday.com/2016/06/warriors-cavaliers-game-1-kyrie-irving What are the Cavs going to do?

Suggested Game plan for the Cavs:
- speed up pace (Lue mentioned this). Less of Lebron backing down until there is 4 seconds left on the shot-clock.
- less iso ball from Irving. He was like 1-8 on the positions he didn't pass the ball.
- try small amounts with Love/Frye and Frye/Thompson, or Frye/Lebron and 3 guards. I don't think this will work, because Frye is a defensive liability on the perimeter. If he could get the Cavs 12 points, that would be huge.
- In G1, Lebron was either a facilitator or a scorer on each possession. Rarely was he both. You could if he was looking to score, or you could tell if he was trying to "get his guys involved". He needs to do both at the same time, Get inside, be aggressive, back down while looking for open/cutters.
- Cavs need more movement without the ball on offense. There was too much hero ball with Lebron and Irving. I don't mean "passing the ball". I mean double cuts, double screens, forcing switches,
- Cavs need to get Smith and Shumpert involved quickly and frequently. They're not necessary in Q1 or Q2 when lebron can carry the team, but when Q3 and Q4 come around, and things get tight, the Cavs need more options.
- Run at least 1 play per quarter for Thompson, where he is charging to the basket. Get him involved. right now, he's not an offensive threat, except for rebounding- the warriors, if you want the a game again, cover him hard on the boards.

Cavs need more from Smith, Shump, Delly, Jefferson, Frye.

[xx1c1cle]

I just finished watching the last 3 minutes of Q1 of G1, where Frye had his only non-garbage minutes. I liked what he did, and I expect him to have 20 minutes in G2. Irving is a dumb-butt, how he shoots that fade-away midrange jumper towards the end of Q1, when the rest of his team is setting up for a play.

Cavs have a chance in G2. but man, the margin of that chance is slim.

[CHAMPi0N]

I'd really like to blame game one on an anomaly in Shaun Livingston's performance... But when Steph scores 11 points and your team STILL gets blown out, time to face the facts. The inexperience is showing from Irving and Love. Lebron is gonna be in a totally different zone in these finals as usual, him and Delly anyways. The rest of the Cavs appear lost and aren't in sync with them.

[GaaBaaBoo]

wow this poll is still here