Declan Rice Scoring Two Free Kicks Had 1 In 435 Probability

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Declan Rice Scoring Two Free Kicks Had 1 In 435 Probability 

Post#1 » by RealGM Wiretap » Wed Apr 9, 2025 7:12 pm

Arsenal defeated Real Madrid 3-0 in a commanding performance highlighted by Declan Rice\'s pair of improbable free kicks and a Mikel Merino strike from near the edge of the box.

Rice\'s first free-kick carried an xG value of just 0.037 (3.7% chance of scoring) while his second had an xG of 0.063 (6.3%), making the combined probability of scoring both just 0.23%.

The statistical rarity of Rice\'s achievement cannot be overstated - the odds of converting both free-kicks in the same match equate to a 1 in 434.8 chance, meaning such a feat would theoretically occur only once if the match were played 435 times with Rice taking identical free-kicks.

Despite scoring on low expected value free kicks from Rice, Arsenal dominated the statistical battle with a total xG of 1.64 compared to Madrid\'s 0.48.

Via RealGM Staff Report

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