Arsenal\'s long pursuit of a top-tier striker has become the common deficiency for the club as they look to win the Premier League for the first time in two decades. However, a recent ESPN analysis challenges this assumption by examining broader trends in European soccer.
Over the past three seasons, no Arsenal player has scored more than 17 non-penalty goals in a campaign, with only Bukayo Saka (37) and Gabriel Martinelli (30) breaking the 30-goal mark across that entire period. Notably, neither player is a traditional center forward, fueling calls for Arsenal to invest in that position.
Arsenal are likely to finish second in the Premier League for the third consecutive season despite their defensive excellence. Since the start of last season, the Gunners have been more than 20% better defensively than any other team in the league according to adjusted goals allowed metrics.
While Arsenal\'s defense remains elite, their attack ranks only in the range of third to fifth best in the league. Their offensive production is bolstered significantly by their league-best set piece program, as their open-play shooting effectiveness drops to sixth in the Premier League.
The article challenges conventional thinking by highlighting Manchester City\'s experience with Erling Haaland. Despite adding \"objectively the best goal scorer the Premier League has ever seen\" with his remarkable 0.8 non-penalty goals per 90 minutes, City hasn\'t scored more than 96 goals or won more than 91 points since his arrival – both lower figures than before he joined.
Ian Graham, Liverpool\'s former head of research, explains this apparent contradiction through the concept of \"usage\" borrowed from basketball: \"When players end a possession by taking a shot, the Expected Goals value he creates often outweighs the cost of losing possession... There is another price to pay when taking a shot: shots are taken at the expense of your teammates.\"
This creates what the article terms the \"Post-Madrid Cristiano Ronaldo Theorem\" – a player can boost his personal goal tally while simultaneously making his team worse if he consistently ends possessions with shots rather than allowing play to develop into potentially better scoring opportunities.
Graham advocates for \"triple threat\" attackers who can pass, shoot and dribble rather than pure finishers. Liverpool\'s success with Mohamed Salah, Roberto Firmino and Sadio Mané exemplifies this approach – none were traditional strikers, yet they formed \"one of the greatest attacking trios of the 21st century.\"
Current data supports this theory. Across Europe\'s top five leagues, Haaland uses 22.37% of possessions he\'s involved in to take shots – the highest mark by far, with no other player reaching 17%. By contrast, Salah, who\'s leading the Premier League golden boot race from a wing position, uses just 10.74% of his possessions for shots.
The article cites multiple examples of teams thriving without traditional strikers: Real Madrid winning LaLiga and Champions League last season before adding Kylian Mbappé, PSG becoming potential Champions League favorites after losing Mbappé, and Chelsea winning the 2021 Champions League before regressing after signing Romelu Lukaku.
Research indicates center forwards command higher transfer fees than any other position, suggesting the role is overvalued both in conventional wisdom and the transfer market. Any striker Arsenal signs would carry substantial financial risk and could potentially weaken the team\'s defensive structure if they don\'t contribute to possession maintenance.
While Arsenal undoubtedly needs to increase their goal output to overtake Liverpool and Manchester City, the article argues that assuming this improvement must come from a traditional striker represents \"an outdated, uncreative, risky and expensive way to try to solve the problem.\"