Record Predictions

[monopoman]

Well now that the pre-season has finally concluded and we have our roster completely set for the regular season, I figured a thread about how many wins this team will end up with after the regular season could be fun.

I will start with my prediction I think they will get 36 wins this season, this team will surprise some people that think the team can't compete at all but they certainly won't be good enough to even be in the playoffs conversation.

[blazersbucs40]

40 wins, I think Portland will collect a lot of wins early on vs better teams since teams don't have a scouting report. At the end of the year I think they gel and win most of the games against < and = talent

[Wizenheimer]

last season, Phoenix won 39 games and Utah won 38 (after catching lightning in a bottle after the all-star break)

meanwhile, Denver won 30 and Sacramento won 29

the West may even be tougher this season. Dallas will drop off but 2 or 3 non-playoff teams will be better. And OKC won't likely have the same injury-riddled season

My thinking is that we'll see a whole lot of quarters like the last 3 last night. Shots not dropping and teams taking the Blazers out of any semblance of offense because of the lack of ball-handlers and offensive weapons. A whole lot of chucking, unfortunately, and an unsettled rotation

so I'd imagine Portland will be a lot closer to last year's Denver and Sacramento teams then Utah & Phoenix. Right around 30 wins, assuming Lillard stays healthy. IIRC, Vegas is putting the over/under at 26.5 wins. I'd probably bump it up to 29.5 and say as much chance of being under as over. The one hedge is that we didn't see any of Henderson and very little of Aminu. If those guys produce real well (providing Stotts gives them a chance) it could be over 30

[The Sebastian Express]

I'm also between 28-31. I think our energy will win us some games, but I think we'll also see a bunch of games like last night where we just lose leads due to inexperience and lack of other consistent scoring which will, hopefully, come in time.

[Dame Lizard]

I'll pen us for 32 games.

[blazersbucs40]

I don't know if the west will be better. I think Dallas and Phoenix will be near the bottom, Ill bet on Sacramento turning into a dumpster fire before I vote them as a team who could compete for 8-10. Memphis I believe will take a big step back, think they lost a ton of key guys. Also the Pelicans already getting killed with injuries. We shall see

[Norm2953]

Assuming there are no major rosters additions, I'm in agreement with around 30 wins.

[Masterfully]

July 23rd I thought 23 wins.
August 23rd I was more like 26.
I was up and down in September.
October 23rd I'll go 29.

This team showed me something in the preseason. They just never really looked awful; they even scraped by when Lillard was out. They had some bad stretches, but nowhere near as bad as I had expected. Yeah, I'll go 29.

[Epicurus]

39, +/- 4.

[SalemStoner]

33 wins is what I think. If Lillard or McCollum misses some time then it'll be in the 20s.

[Fitz303]

This is probably the hardest year for predictions in a long time. My first reaction was 34 wins, so I'll go with that. Though a late season tank could help take that down a bit

[Case2012]

35

[zzaj]

My prediction? Blazers will surprise some teams and come out looking like a .500 team, even beating some teams that they have no business beating. I think having a healthy Aminu and Henderson changes this team pretty dramatically. Somewhere in the season one of Lillard or McCollum will get hurt and it'll all derail and losses will start piling up. Once there is about 25 games left, Stotts will throw in the towel slightly by playing Vonleh significantly more minutes...Blazers will start producing again and we'll be seeing our PF/SF of the future.

32 wins.

[7-12-52]

I have high hopes that we make a trade or two during the season if we come out of the gate winning too much. I also anticipate some injuries late in the season to be exaggerated. If they try to win every game I'd guess 28 wins. My hope is management aims for 20.

[Dame Lizard]

My prediction? Blazers will surprise some teams and come out looking like a .500 team, even beating some teams that they have no business beating. I think having a healthy Aminu and Henderson changes this team pretty dramatically. Somewhere in the season one of Lillard or McCollum will get hurt and it'll all derail and losses will start piling up. Once there is about 25 games left, Stotts will throw in the towel slightly by playing Vonleh significantly more minutes...Blazers will start producing again and we'll be seeing our PF/SF of the future.

32 wins.

Plot twist: Vonleh plays like prime Karl Malone and Blazers end up winning 40 of the last 25 remaining games and equalling Chicago's regular season wins record.

[GreenRiddler]

Nylon Calculus thinks Lillard will have a Westbrook type of year and lead us to the 8th seed. OI don't see it but at least we got 1 non-portland media outlet saying we won't be the worst in the west.

http://nyloncalculus.com/2015/10/24/2016-usage-adjusted-win-projections-part-2/

Key stats (Portland gets 4):
a) Portland’s combined projected usage is just 93%, the second-lowest in the league.
b) Damian Lillard’s Box-Plus-Minus the last three seasons was: +0.3, +3.5, and +5.2, and he just turned 25. My combined projection for him this season is +4.54, 14th-best in the league.
c) C.J. McCollum and Al-Farouq Aminu project to contribute more than +2 points per 100 this season.
d) Portland projects to give just 5% of their available minutes to below-replacement players (5th best in the league).
Key discrepancy: Ok, please don’t leave the Nylon Calculus website never to return. This one’s the weirdest I know, but stick with me. Yes, Wes Matthews was good. LaMarcus Aldridge was very good – and I’m not sure my Box Plus-Minus projections entirely capture how much he contributed to Lillard’s rating. But one thing is for sure – Lillard is a high-usage point guard who both puts up stats and doesn’t have a bad defensive +/-.

To this end, my projections see him taking a 2015-Russell Westbrook type role this year: doing it all and filling a big void.

[GreenRiddler]

35wins with a chance at 40 if Dame and CJ are healthy all year.

[PDX MM]

28-54

[Jsun947]

21 wins... We're going to suck hard.

For all of those people expecting us to do well please explain how we are going to score or defend better than other teams.

We have 2 shot creaters who are also our only two ball handlers in Lillard & McCollum.

We have one legit defender in Aminu, the worst defensive pairing in the league at guard, and no above average defenders in the post.

We have no proven talent other than Lillard on the entire roster.

[Jsun947]

2014/2015 player stats

2nd - 10th best players on the team...

Henderson (Injured) - 12.1/3.4/2.6, 29 mpg, 7th Season
McCollum - 6.8/1.5/1, 16 mpg, 3rd Season
Crabbe - 3.3/1.4/.8, 13 mpg, 3rd Season
Aminu - 5.6/4.6/.8, 19 mpg, 6th Season
Harkless - 3.5/2.4/.6, 15 mpg, 4th Season
Davis - 8.3/7.6/1.2, 23 mpg, 8th Season
Vonleh - 3.3/3.4/.2, 10 mpg, 2nd Season
Plumlee - 8.7/6.2/.9 21 mpg, 3rd Season
Leonard - 5.9/4.5/.6 15 mpg, 4th Season

If you take their average PPG and APG then add them together you get a grand total of 57.5 points and 8.7 assist...

Only henderson averaged over 24 MPG for his team and these 9 players also missed 25% of their games last year due to DNP/Inactives... Aminu is the only new player that was on a team with a winning record last year. Its not like these guys were buried on talented deep teams and thats why they never got a chance. None of them have ever been a starting caliber player at any point in their career.

They can't score, they can't create, they can't defend, and they are all unproven with a lot of development needed. Their only redeemable quality as a group is rebounding.