Betting Odds for the 2025 NBA 'Yoffs

durden_tyler · Post #21 » by **durden_tyler** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:15 am

scrabbarista wrote:I wouldn't bet any of these. If someone forced me to bet or gave me a free $100 bet, I would put $60 on OKC, and $25 on Cleveland and $15 on Denver.

I'd make $5 if OKC wins, $22.50 if Cleveland wins, and $489 if Denver wins.

If Boston wins, I'd lose $100, but actually I would lose nothing because it wasn't my money. That is smart gambling!

The other teams won't win.

Yes that’s where the smart money is indeed— not betting. LOL

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knicksfan974 · Post #22 » by **knicksfan974** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:37 am

Seeing both the Lakers and the Knicks in the top 6 highlights the fact that it is not completely crazy to think these two teams might meet in the Finals. Sure it's a longshot but not completely unthinkable.

FollowTheSound · Post #23 » by **FollowTheSound** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:41 am

Special_Puppy wrote:What's the case for the Lakers being so far ahead of the TWolves? Basically the same amount of talent on the roster overall. TWolves have a better overall net rating and have been playing better recently

Lakers have 3 of the 4 best players in that series

Special_Puppy · Post #24 » by **Special_Puppy** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:48 am

FollowTheSound wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:What's the case for the Lakers being so far ahead of the TWolves? Basically the same amount of talent on the roster overall. TWolves have a better overall net rating and have been playing better recently

Lakers have 3 of the 4 best players in that series

So why have the Timberwolves played better than the Lakers basically the entire year?

durden_tyler · Post #25 » by **durden_tyler** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 1:12 am

FollowTheSound wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:What's the case for the Lakers being so far ahead of the TWolves? Basically the same amount of talent on the roster overall. TWolves have a better overall net rating and have been playing better recently

Lakers have 3 of the 4 best players in that series

Again, it’s not exclusively about the quality of these teams (it’s close) but rather the trend of the betting public.

It’s the Lakers so maybe half of those are dumb fanboy money.

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FollowTheSound · Post #26 » by **FollowTheSound** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 2:01 am

Special_Puppy wrote:
FollowTheSound wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:What's the case for the Lakers being so far ahead of the TWolves? Basically the same amount of talent on the roster overall. TWolves have a better overall net rating and have been playing better recently

Lakers have 3 of the 4 best players in that series

So why have the Timberwolves played better than the Lakers basically the entire year?

I will bet u my kidney the lakers win

nbafan38 · Post #27 » by **nbafan38** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 3:23 am

Wigginstime wrote:The odds I would most likely take:

1. Houston - I don't think they will win it, but i can't remember the last time a 2 seed was at +7500
2. Denver - They still have the same core that won in 2023. Their betting odds are simply 10x more favorable
3. Cleveland - I think the gap between Cleveland and Boston is a lot smaller that what is offered in the betting odds.

I agree the houston odds are insane for a 2 seed. If they held homecourt and even made the WCF You could either get a nice cashout or have great hedging. That said i wouldnt bet them because i don't think theyll win but if you want a low risk HIGH reward opportunity its them.

Exp0sed · Post #28 » by **Exp0sed** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 6:23 am

bluejerseyjinx wrote:
azcatz11 wrote:
bluejerseyjinx wrote:That's your excuse?

I will tail yours. Let’s see them

I haven't bet on basketball since 1983. However, I did place a bet last night that the Celtics would sweep the Magic to win the series. It pays more taking the sweep and I believe they will pull it off.

Weird bet imo, the Magic were these c's kryptonite in the last couple of years, even when the Magic halfway sucked

I think a sweep is pretty unlikely tbh

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bluejerseyjinx · Post #29 » by **bluejerseyjinx** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 12:47 pm

Exp0sed wrote:
bluejerseyjinx wrote:
azcatz11 wrote:
I will tail yours. Let’s see them

I haven't bet on basketball since 1983. However, I did place a bet last night that the Celtics would sweep the Magic to win the series. It pays more taking the sweep and I believe they will pull it off.
Weird bet imo, the Magic were these c's kryptonite in the last couple of years, even when the Magic halfway sucked

I think a sweep is pretty unlikely tbh

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We will start finding out come Sunday !! :party:

azcatz11 · Post #30 » by **azcatz11** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 1:58 pm

Exp0sed wrote:
bluejerseyjinx wrote:
azcatz11 wrote:
I will tail yours. Let’s see them

I haven't bet on basketball since 1983. However, I did place a bet last night that the Celtics would sweep the Magic to win the series. It pays more taking the sweep and I believe they will pull it off.
Weird bet imo, the Magic were these c's kryptonite in the last couple of years, even when the Magic halfway sucked

I think a sweep is pretty unlikely tbh

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It's pretty much 50/50 according to Vegas (sweep vs. 5+ games) You should bet the house on the other side if you think it's a weird bet

Cubbies2120 · Post #31 » by **Cubbies2120** » Thu Apr 17, 2025 2:26 pm

FollowTheSound wrote:
Special_Puppy wrote:
FollowTheSound wrote:
Lakers have 3 of the 4 best players in that series

So why have the Timberwolves played better than the Lakers basically the entire year?

I will bet u my kidney the lakers win

wegotthabeet · Post #32 » by **wegotthabeet** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 2:42 am

Cubbies2120 wrote:Per Fanduel as of 4/16/2025:

OKC +175
BOS +190
CLE +490
LAL +1500
GSW +1900
NYK +3100
LAC +3200
DEN +3900
MIN +5500
IND +7500
HOU +7500
MIL +16000
DET +42000
MEM +65000
ORL +100000
CHI +100000
DAL +100000
MIA +100000
ATL +100000

What are your biggest 'mispriced' lines?

For reference, I believe going into the 'yoffs, the biggest underdog to win it all was the 2011 Mavs at +2000 odds*. So, any team below GSW winning would become the longest odds winner.

* Used ChatGPT for quick research on this so it may be incorrect - please correct me if I'm wrong re 2011 Mavs.

The only team this century to win a chip and not have a top 6 record overall was Milwaukee in 2021 and they finished 7th.

Start there.

1. OKC +175
2. CLE +490
3. BOS +190
4. HOU +7500
5. NYK +3100
6. LAL +1500
- DEN +3900
- LAC +3200
- IND +7500

This year has a weird quirk where 4 teams are tied for 6th (Lakers, Clippers, Pacers & Nuggets). 100% certain the champs will be one of these 9 teams.

Lakers, Nuggets & Clippers represent the best value. I think Boston chokes at some point. Not convinced OKC won't either at some point. It's wide open. If I'm gambling with $100 I'd split it on the Lakers & Denver and hope one of them pulls it off.

I think it's going to be Lakers vs Celtics in the Finals with the Lakers winning in 6.

scrabbarista · Post #33 » by **scrabbarista** » Fri Apr 18, 2025 9:58 pm

durden_tyler wrote:
scrabbarista wrote:I wouldn't bet any of these. If someone forced me to bet or gave me a free $100 bet, I would put $60 on OKC, and $25 on Cleveland and $15 on Denver.

I'd make $5 if OKC wins, $22.50 if Cleveland wins, and $489 if Denver wins.

If Boston wins, I'd lose $100, but actually I would lose nothing because it wasn't my money. That is smart gambling!

The other teams won't win.

Yes that’s where the smart money is indeed— not betting. LOL

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I changed my mind. I would just put it all on OKC.

durden_tyler · Post #34 » by **durden_tyler** » Tue May 27, 2025 5:59 am

Don’t fail me now Pacers and Thunder!

Posting pre-results because unlike Azcats and some other bettors they only post post the fact

My current pending ones need:

Parlay 1
Pacers to win in 5 games
Thunder to win in 5 games

Parlay 2
Thunder to win series
Pacers-Knicks series to end in 5 games

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axeman23 · Post #35 » by **axeman23** » Thu May 29, 2025 8:42 pm

So KAT and Nesmith are both game time decisions today, apparently. KAT's injury was more obvious, but I don't know much about Nesmith's. KAT's LOOKED more serious, but obviously if they lose today it's over. So what are your thoughts on which is more likely to play, or they both will/won't play?

durden_tyler · Post #36 » by **durden_tyler** » Mon Jun 2, 2025 5:27 am

durden_tyler wrote:

Don’t fail me now Pacers and Thunder!

Posting pre-results because unlike Azcats and some other bettors they only post post the fact

My current pending ones need:

Parlay 1
Pacers to win in 5 games
Thunder to win in 5 games

Parlay 2
Thunder to win series
Pacers-Knicks series to end in 5 games

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Pacers' need to finish at home got me here. :banghead:

On to the NBA Finals!!!