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NCAA Week 11

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Pacers_Freak
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NCAA Week 11 

Post#1 » by Pacers_Freak » Wed Nov 6, 2019 2:36 pm

5-5 last week. 40-42-1 on the year. Let's get hot to end the season.


Miami (OH) +7 @ Ohio
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina over 58
Washington @ Oregon State over 64
East Carolina @ SMU -22
Purdue +2.5 @ Northwestern
Florida State @ BC -1.5
Stanford -3 @ Colorado
K State +7 @ Texas
Georgia State @ UL Monroe over 75
ND -8 @ Duke
Iowa State @ Oklahoma over 68


BC and the Oklahoma over are 2 of my favorites of the year.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#2 » by azcatz11 » Thu Nov 7, 2019 12:53 am

Pacers_Freak wrote:5-5 last week. 40-42-1 on the year. Let's get hot to end the season.


Miami (OH) +7 @ Ohio
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina over 58
Washington @ Oregon State over 64
East Carolina @ SMU -22
Purdue +2.5 @ Northwestern
Florida State @ BC -1.5
Stanford -3 @ Colorado
K State +7 @ Texas
Georgia State @ UL Monroe over 75
ND -8 @ Duke
Iowa State @ Oklahoma over 68


BC and the Oklahoma over are 2 of my favorites of the year.


Who do you like in the LSU - Bama game?
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#3 » by threrf23 » Thu Nov 7, 2019 6:58 am

Pacers_Freak wrote:Miami (OH) +7 @ Ohio
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina over 58
Washington @ Oregon State over 64
East Carolina @ SMU -22
Purdue +2.5 @ Northwestern
Florida State @ BC -1.5
Stanford -3 @ Colorado
K State +7 @ Texas
Georgia State @ UL Monroe over 75
ND -8 @ Duke
Iowa State @ Oklahoma over 68


BC and the Oklahoma over are 2 of my favorites of the year.


I also like the Washington / Oregon State over.

Purdue seems like an obvious pick at quick glance, but they are set to start their third string QB, and NW has been solid against the pass. It's possible that Northwestern is throwing in the towel, but this should be a winnable home game for them, and it is followed by a second winnable home game and a chance to knock off Minnesota.

Any sales pitch regarding your top picks? BC in particular, I actually like Florida State in that game. I feel it projects as a close game - powerful BC run game against a defense that bends but doesn't break so easily, and a balanced FSU offense against a BC team that has struggled against the pass and isn't special against the run. I give FSU the edge because they have the better defense, and from the little I've read it sounds to me like FSU is focused and ready to rally around the interim coach.

azcatz11 wrote:
Who do you like in the LSU - Bama game?


You're not asking me, but I lean Bama.

It might be a game to enjoy rather than bet on. But Alabama, as usual, is really good. LSU's defense isn't elite and you need the complete package to beat Alabama where Alabama is coming off a bye week and probably treating a game as practice for the national championship game.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#4 » by Pacers_Freak » Thu Nov 7, 2019 2:00 pm

azcatz11 wrote:
Pacers_Freak wrote:5-5 last week. 40-42-1 on the year. Let's get hot to end the season.


Miami (OH) +7 @ Ohio
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina over 58
Washington @ Oregon State over 64
East Carolina @ SMU -22
Purdue +2.5 @ Northwestern
Florida State @ BC -1.5
Stanford -3 @ Colorado
K State +7 @ Texas
Georgia State @ UL Monroe over 75
ND -8 @ Duke
Iowa State @ Oklahoma over 68


BC and the Oklahoma over are 2 of my favorites of the year.


Who do you like in the LSU - Bama game?


Honestly probably won't touch this game. How healthy is Tua? I would lean LSU but won't play it. If it got to 7 I'd feel better but still probably won't. Just gonna enjoy beverage and the game.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#5 » by Pacers_Freak » Thu Nov 7, 2019 2:32 pm

threrf23 wrote:
Pacers_Freak wrote:Miami (OH) +7 @ Ohio
Louisiana @ Coastal Carolina over 58
Washington @ Oregon State over 64
East Carolina @ SMU -22
Purdue +2.5 @ Northwestern
Florida State @ BC -1.5
Stanford -3 @ Colorado
K State +7 @ Texas
Georgia State @ UL Monroe over 75
ND -8 @ Duke
Iowa State @ Oklahoma over 68


BC and the Oklahoma over are 2 of my favorites of the year.


I also like the Washington / Oregon State over.

Purdue seems like an obvious pick at quick glance, but they are set to start their third string QB, and NW has been solid against the pass. It's possible that Northwestern is throwing in the towel, but this should be a winnable home game for them, and it is followed by a second winnable home game and a chance to knock off Minnesota.

Any sales pitch regarding your top picks? BC in particular, I actually like Florida State in that game. I feel it projects as a close game - powerful BC run game against a defense that bends but doesn't break so easily, and a balanced FSU offense against a BC team that has struggled against the pass and isn't special against the run. I give FSU the edge because they have the better defense, and from the little I've read it sounds to me like FSU is focused and ready to rally around the interim coach.

azcatz11 wrote:
Who do you like in the LSU - Bama game?


You're not asking me, but I lean Bama.

It might be a game to enjoy rather than bet on. But Alabama, as usual, is really good. LSU's defense isn't elite and you need the complete package to beat Alabama where Alabama is coming off a bye week and probably treating a game as practice for the national championship game.


On your Purdue point I agree. But, O'Connel came in last week and was 6/7 and looked serviceable. N'western is so bad offensively that I think Purdue has enough playmakers to get it done.

BC-Fla State- I think BC is trending up a bit. But my main move on this game is the disarray at FSU. I've always faded teams that make an in season move in college. Sometimes I think in the NFL is can galvanize the team but college seems to have the reverse effect. I don't think this is a particularly tough team as they have laid down in several games I've watch. I think they have flushed this season and are concerned with the transfer portal and who the new coach will be. Add in that the temp at kickoff is going to be 39 degrees.

OK- Iowa State- I don't think anyone in the Big 12 can keep the Oklahoma offense in check. Their lowest big 12 score is 31 in a rivalry game with Texas. Every other game they have scored in the 40s. Conversely their D is still struggling. Looked like early in the year they had taken a step forward but it is the same ol Oklahoma D once we've gotten to big 12 play. Iowa State is more than capable offensively averaging almost 34 points/game in conference play. I think barring something crazy everyone assumes Oklahoma gets to 40. Anything above that would be a bonus but certainly possible. So you are counting on Iowa State picking up 28. Both Oklahoma's D and Iowa State's O tells me that is a good chance.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#6 » by threrf23 » Thu Nov 7, 2019 4:25 pm

Pacers_Freak wrote:
BC-Fla State- I think BC is trending up a bit. But my main move on this game is the disarray at FSU. I've always faded teams that make an in season move in college. Sometimes I think in the NFL is can galvanize the team but college seems to have the reverse effect. I don't think this is a particularly tough team as they have laid down in several games I've watch. I think they have flushed this season and are concerned with the transfer portal and who the new coach will be. Add in that the temp at kickoff is going to be 39 degrees.


Ok. I haven't really watched FSU at all this season. But on paper, if you ignore the unwinnable Clemson game and the Miami rivalry game, They had a nice showing vs Louisville, they held NC State to 13 points, and they outgained Wake in a close loss. BC meanwhile is coming off a blowout of Syracuse, but Syracuse gave up 63 to Maryland, and with the exception of Western Michigan, hadn't scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent.

I have no clue how the coaching change effects things - I'm always under the impression that scapegoating a coach midseason leaves a bad taste. But it's not clear whether FSU players had liked Taggart, and his replacement has been with the program for 20+ years and hence should have the respect of his players. Also, FSU has won three of its last four in Boston.

OK- Iowa State- I don't think anyone in the Big 12 can keep the Oklahoma offense in check. Their lowest big 12 score is 31 in a rivalry game with Texas. Every other game they have scored in the 40s. Conversely their D is still struggling. Looked like early in the year they had taken a step forward but it is the same ol Oklahoma D once we've gotten to big 12 play. Iowa State is more than capable offensively averaging almost 34 points/game in conference play. I think barring something crazy everyone assumes Oklahoma gets to 40. Anything above that would be a bonus but certainly possible. So you are counting on Iowa State picking up 28. Both Oklahoma's D and Iowa State's O tells me that is a good chance.


I don't necessarily disagree about this one. But I like Oklahoma o35.5 more than the overall over. Ignore the one loss to Kansas State and the opener to Houston, Oklahoma held Texas to 27, and hadn't given up more than 20. Iowa State scored 21 against Baylor and 27 against OK State, and I see Oklahoma as motivated coming off of their bye.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#7 » by Pacers_Freak » Thu Nov 7, 2019 4:34 pm

threrf23 wrote:
Pacers_Freak wrote:
BC-Fla State- I think BC is trending up a bit. But my main move on this game is the disarray at FSU. I've always faded teams that make an in season move in college. Sometimes I think in the NFL is can galvanize the team but college seems to have the reverse effect. I don't think this is a particularly tough team as they have laid down in several games I've watch. I think they have flushed this season and are concerned with the transfer portal and who the new coach will be. Add in that the temp at kickoff is going to be 39 degrees.


Ok. I haven't really watched FSU at all this season. But on paper, if you ignore the unwinnable Clemson game and the Miami rivalry game, They had a nice showing vs Louisville, they held NC State to 13 points, and they outgained Wake in a close loss. BC meanwhile is coming off a blowout of Syracuse, but Syracuse gave up 63 to Maryland, and with the exception of Western Michigan, hadn't scored more than 24 points against an FBS opponent.

I have no clue how the coaching change effects things - I'm always under the impression that scapegoating a coach midseason leaves a bad taste. But it's not clear whether FSU players had liked Taggart, and his replacement has been with the program for 20+ years and hence should have the respect of his players. Also, FSU has won three of its last four in Boston.

OK- Iowa State- I don't think anyone in the Big 12 can keep the Oklahoma offense in check. Their lowest big 12 score is 31 in a rivalry game with Texas. Every other game they have scored in the 40s. Conversely their D is still struggling. Looked like early in the year they had taken a step forward but it is the same ol Oklahoma D once we've gotten to big 12 play. Iowa State is more than capable offensively averaging almost 34 points/game in conference play. I think barring something crazy everyone assumes Oklahoma gets to 40. Anything above that would be a bonus but certainly possible. So you are counting on Iowa State picking up 28. Both Oklahoma's D and Iowa State's O tells me that is a good chance.


I don't necessarily disagree about this one. But I like Oklahoma o35.5 more than the overall over. Ignore the one loss to Kansas State and the opener to Houston, Oklahoma held Texas to 27, and hadn't given up more than 20. Iowa State scored 21 against Baylor and 27 against OK State, and I see Oklahoma as motivated coming off of their bye.


I don't have team totals available yet. If it is 35.5 I LOVE that.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#8 » by threrf23 » Fri Nov 8, 2019 12:51 am

Pacers_Freak wrote:
I don't have team totals available yet. If it is 35.5 I LOVE that.


I must have been confusing the Oklahoma lines with Louisiana Lafayette (which I was also looking at last night).

It's probably going to be o41.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#9 » by Pacers_Freak » Fri Nov 8, 2019 3:28 am

threrf23 wrote:
Pacers_Freak wrote:
I don't have team totals available yet. If it is 35.5 I LOVE that.


I must have been confusing the Oklahoma lines with Louisiana Lafayette (which I was also looking at last night).

It's probably going to be o41.


Makes sense. Should be like 41-27 implied scores with the spread and total.
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#10 » by threrf23 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 9:08 am

So much for the Washington / Oregon State over.

These are my plays for tomorrow:

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And I've got this parlay in play since Sunday night:

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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#11 » by karkinos » Sat Nov 9, 2019 4:08 pm

lsu +7 and ML
geaux tigers!
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Re: NCAA Week 11 

Post#12 » by threrf23 » Sat Nov 9, 2019 9:31 pm

Kedon Slovis just threw for 297 yards and 4 TDs in one quarter for USC. damn

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