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Warriors/Thunder overs are the two I'd feel best on at first glance. Thunder will likely rise a bit if CP3 doesn't move prior to the RS.

The teams I have 4+ games off from the Westgate line (I have mostly under lines, it seems the books are predicting an over .500 season):

Jazz under (49 wins) -> Utah upgraded their playoff roster, but not their regular season roster. Favors was very effective in the regular season at PF - Bogdonovich may even be a downgrade for the regular season. Rubio's shooting hurts more in the playoffs - so Conley's a bigger playoff upgrade and the depth they lost getting him will hurt more during the regular season.

Lakers under (43 wins) -> Depth is huge in the regular season. I see 5 guys I trust to be better then replacement-level - especially since normal injuries means a lot of games with only 3 or 4 healthy.

GSW under (42 wins) -> Also depth. Until Klay returns they've also only got 5 credible rotation players, and 2 can really only play center.

San Antonio under (42 wins) -> So who's making any 3's on this team? Last season Bertrans had great +/- numbers as the only shooter on the team, which made him very valuable to the team. Now they've traded him away for nothing (even if they'd signed Morris it wouldn't have made sense).

OKC over (36 wins) -> Current roster still looks credible. Would worry about putting actual money here though as depth is iffy and Paul and Gallo are big health risks (and really good players when healthy so either one out really hurts).

Chicago over (37 wins) -> Added several quality vets (Sato, Young, Porter for more then a few games) that not only fill in depth but can be actively good.

My projections are just looking at some statistical models and adding some common sense/personal opinion. I wouldn't trust anything absolutely but generally 4+ wins is enough to feel confident to put money down and beat the house vig. Like putting equal money on the 5 above (except OKC which has too much uncertainly for me to trust) should yield 3 or 4 winners.

The over on the Kings looks like a lay up tbh. I think they're good enough to at least hit 41 wins

MrDollarBills wrote:The over on the Kings looks like a lay up tbh. I think they're good enough to at least hit 41 wins

Agree about the Kings. I also think Memphis can win 30. And I'll take the Raps over

Usualy i take unders but this year i took OKC large and Phoenix on a medium sized bet.

I think the Kings are a potential trap. But the line is low enough that i can see the optimism.

Using the Westgate lines...

Unders:
locks - BOS, NYK
like 'em a lot - SAS, CLE
like 'em enough - HOU, BKN

Overs:
locks - GSW, TOR
like 'em a lot - MIA, CHI
like 'em enough - ORL, NOP

Unders
Lakers, sixers, celtics, mavs

Overs
Knicks, warriors,blazers, bulls

all locks


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I was gonna post Bulls should be over for sure, was a little worried i would be accused of being a homer, but nice to see alot of you agree!

Knicks I would say over too, except for pointsbet. They have them at a whole 10 games higher than the other 3. Yikes

Miami Heat over on pointsbet is free money

OVER:
Sixers
Nuggets
Celtics
Blazers
Nets
Heat
Mavs
Kings
Pistons
Bulls

UNDER:
Hornets
Cavaliers
Grizzlies
Knicks
Hawks
Pelicans
Magic

JMHO.....but I think that the Suns are going to do better this season. I think that they can win 29 games or more.